This is either a huge leak in my game, a healthy dose of run bad, or some combination of the two but I have found myself getting stacked quite often lately with TPTK on straight draw and flush draw flops.

Hand 1: Effective stacks of $160

Hero dealt AK

2 limps in EP
Hero raises to $15 in LP
Villain calls $15 from SB
limpers fold

Pot: $33

Flop: K 7 8

SB checks
Hero bets $20
SB raises to $75
Hero raises AI for $125

I was at the table for a few hours with this V and he seemed competent. We had only been in one major hand before where he check-raised me and I folded a weak TP. I probably should have gotten away from this one but I constantly find myself stacking off with TPTK <100 BBs deep on boards with straight draws and flush draws and THEY NEVER HAVE A FREAKING DRAW. I'm pretty convinced now 1/2 players aren't semi-bluff raising dangerous flops and they just always have a very strong hand and negative variance is putting me up against sets pretty often lately.

Hand 2: $170 effective

V1 limps UTG
4 more limps
Hero raises to $25 from BB with A A
V1 calls $25

Pot: ~$55

Flop: 6 7 2

Hero bets $40
V1 shoves AI for $145
Hero calls $145

I know I am not providing a ton of info on reads here, I guess this is more of a general strategy question. In general, is stacking off less than 100 BBs deep with TPTK bad when there are straight draws AND flush draws on the flop and you get raised or check-raised?

I can't figure out if this is a bad leak or just negative variance and it's starting to annoy me. Are 1/2 players just not capable of making semi-bluff raises often enough to warrant calling it off? Usually my fold-radar is pretty solid but I just have a hard time folding on these boards.

Variance, imo. Always GII in these hands unless the bettor is passive and his aggression is out of character.

Maybe could fold hand 2 but hand 1 looks fine given stack sizes

Can't say it better then myself +1

A fact to consider. The average winning hand at show down is two pair. If you are showing down 1 pair, you're going in with a below average hand.

My own experience is that at 60BB or less, LLSNL players can stack off where TPTK can be good. At 80BB and above, TP isn't going to be good often.

As for hand 1, your shove isn't offering odds (I think the 125 is off it should be 145 total) for a FD to call. A FD might, but the reality is you're mostly going to get called by better. Hand 2, LLSNL players generally don't shove draws. They typically call and try to hit.

The reality is that you have to know your villain. As Harrington put it, you don't have much time to figure this out. If someone raises pf and bets the flop and turn, you have to assume they overvalue TP. If you wait until you're sure, someone else will have felted them.

x2, I'm not folding either of these. Would expect to lose first hand to 77/88/AA pretty often as played but stacks are too short to get away. Hand 2 V can have any overpair with or without spade, naked As, etc, so can't fold. It's hard to make pairs, so I don't like folding big ones. It's served me pretty well so far.

Imo, the key is you have got to have accurate profiles of your villains.

Hand 1, against an unknown, aggro, or ABC player who "puts you on a FD" getting it in is fine. Against a solid winning passive player, nit, OMC, or passive rec-fish we are behind like always.

Hand 2 is a fold without the A, just let it go...

One of the things I'm always wary of in 1/2nl is that when we raise preflop and have AK and the flop hits with an A or a K and "competent" villains are jamming us.... Then I'm wary because at this level they are putting us on AK . So whenever they jam us here they can usually beat AK. Now, when our villains are unknown or just typical rec-fish or donks with huge leaks, then TPTK is usually good against them... However we have to make that read based on how they have been playing. If we are paying attention then we see that they have been overvaluing their hands in previous encounters

IN general, the Baluga theorem applies in 1/2nl, once V's are upping their aggression, we need to proceed carefully.

Back to hand 1, I've found most 1/2nl villains don't semibluff raise whereas in 2/5nl that is way more common...In any event, GII in hand 1 is fine for the most part. Hand 2 is meh at best...

GL

don't let variance affect your plays, everybody goes through it and that's where bankroll plays a major part. if you play within your limits and roll, you can play comfortably despite these swings... it can be worst, like always ahead when the money goes in but villains always hits his 2 outers.

if it's really affecting you, chill out and take a break.

Thanks for the replies everyone.

@dgi, I thought the Baluga theorem only applied on the turn (and possibly river)? The flop seems a bit premature to give credit for a monster.

Regarding these hands, Hand 1 the V was fairly competent while Hand 2 the V was one step above a drooler.

Stack sizes are important here. If you're getting felted for $500-600 with TPTK at 1/2, that's a leak in your game. But for $160, by the time you find out you're up against a likely set, you've already committed 60%+ of your stack. You would need far better-than-average reads on your villains to fold for that price.

Hand 2, yeah just fold it. Problem with this hand is that you have zero fold equity and weak showdown equity against your villain's range. Worst-case scenario, you're drawing practically dead against a made flush. Medium-case scenario, your opponent "only" has two pair. He's ahead, but you can still hope for a board pair. Best-case scenario, your opponent has a combo draw (pair and a big spade). That's going to give him 11-13 outs. Even though you're ahead, he'll still win 40% of those pots. Absolute-best-case-scenario is that he's doing this with a bare Ace of spades. That usually doesn't happen at 1/2 though. And even if it did happen here, he's still got 9 outs twice, giving him decent pot equity.

So in hand 2, you're generally either crushed, way behind, or just barely ahead. Chuck that junk.

We don't have the A in hand 2, so I'm rarely folding unless I am fairly certain villain is super-duper nutted.

It's really all about the player profiles and ranging them appropriately. You will continue to get better at this with more experience.

In general most players at this level are pretty scared money and aren't just willy nilly raising with flush draws. There certainly are players that will semi-bluff raise which is why knowing your opponent is so critical in spots like this. The other thing to consider is competency. If a player is bad then you should be much more willing to get it in with them because they could be overplaying their hand.

When you have a hand like AK top pair top kicker or AA overpair the natural reaction is to just put the money in when faced with aggression. I would caution against that and say that when faced with aggression your default play should be to fold and in order to justify a call/raise you need to thoughtfully range your opponents such that you are confident that getting it in is profitable.

Agree and the key is really understanding villain raising ranges. They are often SIGNIFICANTLY narrower than what you might expect or a "thinking" player would find acceptable particularly at these levels. Conversely there may be more gambletards who are level 0 thinkers who will never, ever fold TP or an OP but they generally will not raise with them. So correctly ranging the player type is going to get you moving towards better answers.

You issues here are stack size and V type ... but also important is what type of player are you? Do you bring 3 or 4 bullets to each session? Can you buy in for more? With your stack size it's pretty easy to feel committed to the pot any time there is a raise PF and raise on Flop or Turn thereafter ... even HU.

Hand #1 seems more like a cooler if your opponent already had you beat .. but .. you are never just calling here. So it's shove or fold. And in most cases you are going to be justified by shoving here against most except sets. You can pick up a bigger 2 pair and have a backdoor draw (if good)

Hand #2 I could bet slightly smaller OTF so I can get away from it. You are generally always calling with the As in your hand but I think we all have trouble laying this down ... but need to learn how.

You may have an image that is easy to pick up on as well which leads to these types of hands. Do you get much action on your other c-bets? If not, then you are considered a nit and your V 'know' where you are more than you know where they are ... and in the long run that's not a good thing.

1-2 is mosty 'cards' ... not poker. So any time there is aggression, they pretty much have it in a 'flippy' or dominated situation for the Hero and with your stack sizes as shown it makes it very hard to get away from them. GL

$100 or more is a mammoth bet at 1/2 in So Cal and Las Vegas games.

We need to tighten up if the betting approaches $100.

Without very specific reads at this level, Players actions are what they seem. Don't level yourself.

Good point, but here in Michigan the majority of the rooms (charity and casino both) dont spread a 2-5 game so you have a mix of players who 'wish' (and act) like they are playing that limit while the stacks of some of the players dont reflect it.

Never played in SoCal, but Vegas 1-2 is 'worse' than ours simply because its more rec than reg. I have always been told to move up in stakes (by folks around here) when going to Vegas so I can 'feel' like its the same game .. just a little bigger stack in front!! I found this to be very true the 2 times I have gone to Vegas since I 'found' poker.

Know your V ... GL

You hit the nail on the head. The vast majority of the players in my game almost always have 2 pair + when raising or check raising the flop. After that comes overpair or top pair hands, and a much smaller percentage is draws.

I'd say you're best off folding TPTK or even overpairs unless you see a Villain overplaying 1 pair hands. Then it's a different story. But I can tell you in my game, it's almost never the draw / combo draw. Especially given your betsizing in these two hands - you open pre and bet hard, and they don't give a sh*t. They just ship right on in over top. I'd say in these spots folding too often is better than calling too often.