Example #2 of finding myself in a spot where I don't want to make a huge mistake on the river (either by folding the best hand or by putting all my chips in with second best hand) vs losing value by not betting/raising.
Preflop (10 players): Hero is CO with K
Q
EP limps, MP limps, Hero raises to $14, EP calls, MP folds
EP is a middle aged moran who's wearing a hunting hat and a hunting mustache and sporting hunting tattoos. He's a good'ol boy. He's run his stack up to $400+ and has my $350 covered. He's been donking flops after preflop raises quite a lot; he's been caught three barrelling in near impossibly bad situations with bottom pair / air multiple times. He will fold when he knows he's beat though. He will eventually lose all his money, it's just a matter of time. He sees me as tight, non-bluffy and perhaps weak/foldy.
Flop (2 players, ~$30): 9
8
5
EP donks $15, Hero calls
With K high against this donker, I could still have the best hand. Two overs, two backdoors, I'm seeing the turn? Any point in raising?
Turn (2 players, ~$60): 4
EP bets $20, Hero calls
Two overs and the second nut flush getting 4:1, so I'm not folding. Still no point in raising?
River (2 players, $100): 2
EP bets $30, Hero...
I've got the 2nd nut flush. While EP is a bluffy moran, he knows just like everyone else there are 4 spades on board plus he knows how to fold when he's beat, especially against me (seen as non-bluffy). Do I have to raise to get value from Q/J flushes? But what if moran thinks Q/J flush might be good and pushes all-in? Is getting the extra value from the one or two hands that *might* pay me off worth getting into a tough spot?
GhavingadifficulttimeontheriverG