Ok, i still don't see any value in just calling the turn.

Lets say we just call, with the intention that we are calling all river bets. River is an A... Are we just covering our face and walking out of the casino when v flips over AJ? That seems like such a weak line.

It just seems that we are hoping for all the stars to align in order to double up here.

First, we are hoping we are good here (which we don't know at this point)
Second, we are giving v a free shot to beat us, hoping v doesn't hit a miracle card on the river
Third, we are hoping v will continue his bluff after being called on 2 streets by a super nit who is pot committed.

If v has us beat, he is getting our money here or on the river regardless... But in my mind, I'm making him pay to see that river ... He's getting ~4.5-1 to call our AI, I don't know many spewy lags that won't take those odds

Raising to not allow villian to hit his 3 outer is not the correct way to play. You play to win bets not pots. If he's putting in money with the majority of his range way behind you, continue to let him. If you raise, all he does is call with better.

you said it yourself here:

It looks like you were responding to my post, but that's not my quote... I'm not op.

But anyway, I'm not saying raise to make him fold a 3 outer. I'm saying at this point, I don't see how v could fold getting those odds, and I'd rather make him pay to see the river now, than get to the river and watch it go check check. I think we are really stretching reality hoping v will continue to bet this board with air based on a couple comments about his image.

In my mind: chances v calls AI on turn with worse > v shoving with worse on river after being called down two streets by a super nit who is pot committed.

well i think we understand each other's reasoning. i think we're just imagining different villains. i'm imagining a non-thinking guido who just wants to bully and push regardless of paying much attention to stack sizes and for the most part this works for him. i'm putting a TON of naked bluffs into his range.

of course i'm biased both from where i play, the style i play (and the types of opponents i look to play against) and some recent success.

related story (and my most recent vivid memory which is definitely influencing my grunch in this thread)

this past saturday i'm playing at bally's AC. a tough guy (had an accent... so probably eastern european) sits down, looks tough, gives me a quick motionless glance when i say "hi". he's sitting 2 to my left. he's immediately in almost every pot and just buying all the pots and frustrating some of the calmer and older players.

he gets his stack to about $400. i have $500.

i get 99 in middle position. i raise to 10. he calls in late position. someone calls in early position.

flop ($30) is Q 9 5 rainbow

check to me, i bet 15 hoping to get a caller, villain calls, other player folds.

turn ($60) is 8 completing rainbow.

i bet 30 still hoping to keep villain in. he raises to 90. i look at the board and my first thought is "oh no, i let his JT get there!" then i quickly reel myself back in and think "don't get mubs. you can't pin anyone to a single specific combo like that, especially this guy. go into call down mode".

i call the additional 60.

river ($250) is a J.

i check

I am hoping he doesn't have a T but i already picked my line and know his range is still probably ATC and he probably thinks i have a hand he can push me off of. if anything... the scarier the board, the more bold he'll get.

he quickly goes all in for almost $250.

i quickly call and say "do you have a straight?"

i see embarrassment in his face as he doesn't turn over his cards so i just flip over my set... he studies my hand and the board for about 30 seconds then mucks. says "nice check slick" and goes to the atm. i didn't see his hand but i don't think he had even a pair.

he came back... moved to my right for some reason (guess he thought he'd prey on another player). half hour later i went into call down mode on him again with second pair. stacked him again for much less and he switched tables.

that's one guy... and he's extreme... but i see this a lot at 1-2. and it's my favorite play. they do all the work. every once in a while when you're calling down light you might still lose. but against these players i think you take away a ton of value by fighting back at any point in the hand. they just have it in their head that if you're not raising or leading out then you have a hand they can push you off of.

this ended up much longer than i expected. sorry.

^^ that's 90% of LAGs @ 1-2 imo.

I know exactly the type of LAG you're describing and I've even played at Ballys in AC against an Eastern European dude who might be the exact person you're describing. However, this V wasn't quite that much of a maniac (obviously his 4bet shove over my 3betting out of the blinds with 44 was absurd). He wasn't doing this all the time and did show some pre-flop folding discipline. He seemed kind of balanced but from the info another player at the table told me he can kind of go on tilt streaks and lose his solidly-built up stacks randomly in an instant.

Anyway, is it too soon to post results?

Probably about right, been 24 hours or so....

Yea im ready to hear this

I folded and he thought about showing but didn't. When he got up to leave I asked him what he had. He said he had 2d5d. I'm 99% sure he was telling the truth the way he told me. He said he "was looking to gamble" by calling preflop.

Well theres absolutely no way you could put him on that...cant believe you found a fold there

Part of it was the 44 hand he shoved was about an hour before this one. I thought it'd be less likely he'd be bluffing so soon after making such a bluffy move against me and showing it. He also looked pretty confident when he shook his head "no" that he did not check on the turn and then sized out $95. It seemed like if he was bluffing he'd bet $100, but $95 was trying to get me into the bargain mode like a "$19.99" marketing scheme type mentality. Yes this is way over-analyzing it but all these little things added up gave me the instinct to fold.

I've also been running HORRIBLY the past month and have had 6 losing sessions in a row (I track my results and make $15/hour playing 1/2 at this casino so I AM a winning player). I was in this same exact spot with AQ on a Q22 board last week and a guy over-shoved $250 in a $30 pot and I called and the LAG dude had Kh2h so I also had that in my mind and was probably influenced a bit by mubs.

If there is a possibility you can fold on the river, you should probably fold the turn. That is why I like the turn shove with a flush and straight draw on the board.

Well played sir

In my opinion, fold is a better than call. This is not the strength of hand I want to fancy play to get it all in on later streets. This is a classic shove/fold spot. If the river brings an overcard, flush or straight you put yourself in a tough spot.

Shove>Fold>Call

i like this reasoning... when playing lagtards the questions becomes "how light am i willing to go into battle with". i could see a single pair second kicker being too light. depends on the villain/read and how much variance you're willing to accept. the good thing about lagtards is you can wait for the near nuts and still be profitable as they'll bloat the pot so much.