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1/2 KK on semi-dangerous board

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08-20-2015 , 02:05 PM

Mat the Gambler

adept

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,170

I had just sat down at a new table, so no real reads on anybody. This was like the fourth or fifth hand I played.

I raise from early position $10 with KK. Four callers.

Flop is QJ8 rainbow. BB donks $20. I raise to $60. Everyone folds to BB who goes all-in for $200 total.

???

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08-20-2015 , 02:19 PM

kookiemonster

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,652

Fold.

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08-20-2015 , 02:24 PM

hokie.521

newbie

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 38

I fold. I think readless BB shows you 2 pair+ wayy more often than AQ or KT. And I'd make it bigger preflop

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08-20-2015 , 02:43 PM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 14,064

Fold.

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08-20-2015 , 03:11 PM

Mat the Gambler

adept

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,170

No one thinks he's ever doing this with a one pair plus gutshot like QT, JT, TT or 99 here?

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08-20-2015 , 03:33 PM

mappedout

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,930

Hard to tell with no reads. PF he saw an early raise and then was getting 5to1 to call, so his range could include those hands. Donking the flop and then shoving to a raise make a set or 2P much more likely. He's probably more likely to flat your raise with a pair + gutshot, and not donk bet in the first place for that matter, but reads could change that.

You are losing to more of his probable range than you are beating. Just fold.

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08-20-2015 , 03:34 PM

hokie.521

newbie

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 38

If we had any history and/or reads that said player likes to mix it up a bit... maybe, but default against random guy I don't see it being a profitable call

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08-20-2015 , 04:37 PM

kansaisupra

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 679

sucks but I fold. I see QJ here way too often J8 and Q8 and real possibilities. I'd just fold and find a better spot.

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08-20-2015 , 06:03 PM

nuts99

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 19

agreed. easy fold. AP I would fold, but I would have just called his bet for pot control.

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08-20-2015 , 07:25 PM

#10

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

AP, it's a call. Only need 31%. Hardly need to include any Tx in range to get there.

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08-21-2015 , 12:49 AM

#11

Burnit3x

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 91

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mat the Gambler

No one thinks he's ever doing this with a one pair plus gutshot like QT, JT, TT or 99 here?

I never assume a player is capable of that until I've seen them do it.

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08-21-2015 , 01:16 AM

#12

Buster65

The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,468

Easy call.

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08-21-2015 , 01:52 AM

#13

johnyarmless

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 115

why are you raising otf ?

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08-21-2015 , 06:43 AM

#14

amh1121

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 307

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mat the Gambler

1) you raised from EP, so your range could easily have QQ and JJ here
2) BB was one of the last to call, decent odds, random players show up with 9T, QJ, all kinds of stuff here
3) BB doesn't seem to care that you raised a field of 5 players after his donk

with no reads, i fold it. you have taken a strong line and he still wants to get all the money in. the presence of the other players mean its less likely he is screwing around. if you call, what are you hoping to see? AQ? JT? 89ss? i have a hard time giving a heavy weighting to those kind of hands without a read...

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08-21-2015 , 09:40 AM

#15

SpexDome

banned

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 783

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mat the Gambler

No one thinks he's ever doing this with a one pair plus gutshot like QT, JT, TT or 99 here?

You're only slightly better than even money against those hands. Many have 10+ outs. Add that to the plethora of two-pair, straights, and sets you might be up against, and it's pretty obvious that there isn't much money to be made here.

LLSNL Commandment #6 - Don't pay off the fish.

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08-21-2015 , 11:25 AM

#16

Mat the Gambler

adept

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,170

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnyarmless

why are you raising otf ?

Calling seems like a huge mistake. I feel like I'm ahead of his donk bet range, and there are enough turn cards that I'm afraid of. I think he will call with enough drawing hands, and no one at 1/2 is ever going to fold AQ or KQ on that flop so I get value from those hands.

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08-21-2015 , 11:43 PM

#17

Illmatikk

centurion

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 182

Fold. i doubt he has the nuts; QJ seems very likely.

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08-22-2015 , 04:07 PM

#18

eldiesel

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,585

You should stop the hand when V donks $20 and discuss it then. Before you raise you should know how you'll react to a reraise. This is the wrong part of the hand to be discussing.

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