Quote:
Originally Posted by zugzwangg
If you like variance, raise to 140 and call. If you don't like variance fold. Given your reads its really hard to tell if you have fold equity or not.
It boils down to does villian raise only sets and AhXh and 4hXh here? Does he raise call 77,88-TT?
You actually want a call from 7h8h and 8h9h type hands and from 77-TT. So without information any play is fine coz you gots the equity duh!
Raising back here is an losing play. A tight Villain is almost never folding after raising you on the flop, so you have like zero FE. if you jam and are called you're basically just on a FD with ~36% equity since your over cards will almost never be outs.
If you call his flop raise to try to make a flush you need 4-1. And you have to call $40 more to win about $125. So you're getting a little better then 3-1 in pot odds. You have to make up that additional $35 when you hit your draw, bet, are called, and still deny proper odds for him to draw with a FH. And this is all just to get to neutral EV, not +EV.
If you call and hit your flush you'll have almost a pot sized bet left. If you then jam you'll be laying the V about 2-1, which is not good enough (3.5-1 required) for him to correctly draw to a FH. So if you think this player will still stack off on a flushing turn (or if he's aggressive enough to jam all flushing turns when checked to) then calling flop raise is correct. If you think that V
will fold OTT when the flush comes and he doesn't have proper odds to draw just fold OTF.