$1/2 $300 Max

Hero ($700): 24 years old. Largest stack at the table.

Villain ($300): Chinese youngish guy, probably around 27 to 30 years old, well dressed. He's playing pretty well compared to the droolers at the table. But he's not dangerous. I don't think he's pulling any crazy bluffs.
Also he has been limp/folding a lot to my PF raises.

The hand:
It folds to Villain in the HJ who limps for $2.
CO folds, Hero raises to $15 with Ks9c.
Villain calls $15.
Heads up.

Flop ($30)

As 9s Js

Villain checks.
Hero bets $25.
Villain calls.

Turn ($80)

9d

Villain checks, hero bets $50.
Villain raises to $100.

Hero?

I don't love the fact that his first aggression comes when the board pairs, but oddly enough I think we can still include Ax in his range, especially when it is the Q or T.

Obviously we are ahead of any flush draw with our K, and ahead of all 1 and 2 pair hands and any worse 9's. We are behind made flushes, and full houses.

What we have to determine is how heavily his range is in the full house category. Possible FH's are: A9, J9, AA, and JJ. And I think we can discount AA and JJ heavily based on preflop action. Would he call your PF raise w J9/A9? Given that you said he was folding a lot to your PF raises I also think we can discount him having J9 here a lot! There is only 1 possible 9 for him to have... The 9. So let's give him 1 combo of AA/JJ combined, and 1 combo of A9s/J9s combined. Now, possible made flushes... QT... What else? 87 down to 65? Ok, 4 combos of made flushes. So we are behind a weighted range of 6 combos. And ahead of a ton! And even if behind... We have mega outs against all but 1 the full houses, and could even draw a K to beat the J9.

I think I am never folding this spot. So the decision in game is wether to flat or raise.

He has put in $140 so far with $160 behind. He probably isn't folding if we jam, unless he is at the bottom of his range or on a complete bluff, which is always possible. He is Asian after all lol.

I think we can flat and reevaluate the river action but hating any A or J river. And not loving any Q, T or 8. But since those are really the only cards we hate/dislike I prefer to just get it in here. Sure we are going to fold out all of his bluffs and most likely all pocket pairs that he might be trying to turn into a bluff, but we force him to give up some equity with the PP's and put him in a tough spot with his AQ/T/8? hands. The problem with 3! this turn is just what this paragraph shows... He's going to fold MOST worse hands and definitely be calling with ALL better hands. On second thought, maybe flatting and allowing him to think his 98 is good. If he shoves river, I'm probably calling all but the A/J river cards. And if he checks, I am betting for value, probably just shoving, as pot will be ~$280 and he will have ~$160 left.

Edit: one more thought, he open limped in LP and only called our preflop raise. I really think we can completely eliminate the AA/JJ here. Also think he may be making this move with a OESD+FD type holding such as QT or T8 and thinking that this is a good board to bluff at when it pairs.

Think i check the flop here

Call

Checking flop with NFD?

Flat turn, evaluate river action. Getting minraised on a paired board probably isn't a flush, but there aren't many boats he can have. It's usually a boat though.

all in

I'd call because I'm really fscking confused about what the heck he's trying to rep.

And then call the rive rfor anything $75 or less.
But really, wtf? This line make no sense...
Since he never has AA or JJ here (I assume) that's a lot less combos of boats that we are losing too. So, yeah.
Call.

Why?

Such a weird line really makes me believe he has a full house because he obv. Does not seem to be worried about you catching up if he had a 78ss or any non nut flush most players in these games would not check twice and min raise turn.

However I would never fold this

My estimation is that there's 10% chance he could have a boat (A/9, j/9), 50% he has a 9/x (K/9, Q/9, 10/9, 9/8,9/7), 20% he has a flush, 10% he's on a draw ( Q/10, 10/8 ), 10% bluffing.

If he's on a boat it's strange for him to reraise you here.

If he's on 9/x, it makes sense he would want to reraise you here, he's probably afraid you might hit trips and wants to get more money into the pot when he thinks he's a head.

If he has a flush, maybe it he felt he could check the flop, but wants to get the money in now, but I'm still skeptical.

If he's on a draw, still it's weird for such a horrible min raise.

He could be trying to bluff you off the pot, but again, min raise is a terrible bluff.

He seems like a bad player unless he has 9/x, then the min raise makes sense, unless he wants you think this and he actually boated up. there's probably few players in the room playing at that level though.

If he does have 9s or a flush draw, calling and playing the river seems good here.
I don't fear a king landing for a straight draw because that will help us. If he has flush, we want to see another card anyway.

I think we want more info and there's enough possibilities for us to get the rest of his money in when we're good if we call. Let's use our position, call him.

I'll give results later today.

Tough to range villain with this weird line. I would be surprised if a flush c/c flop.

I think flatting the min raise IP is best. I would call most non-ace rivers depending on bet size/tells, etc. If checked to, I am value betting same.

Pre is whatever if he's l/f'ing a bunch.

Flop/turn are fine so far.

I don't think you see many combos of flushes here due to the As/Js/9s all being out and us holding the Ks. If he's been l/f'ing to you, I doubt he's going to be looking to change that up and l/c 76ss type hands OOP HU to your sizing.

I'd say his range is something like AJo/AJs, A9s, QTss, J9s.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

528 games 0.000 secs 105,600 games/sec

Board: As Js 9s 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.936% 27.65% 00.28% 146 1.50 { AJs, A9s, QsTs, J9s, AJo }
Hand 1: 72.064% 71.78% 00.28% 379 1.50 { Ks9c }

If you think he's pot-stuck and will call with his AJ combos, it's a shove imo. Otherwise, just call and play river accordingly.

Question:

With the flop sizing a a bet for value/expected value, shouldn't we also bet for value on the turn? e.g. around 70. After all, our hand is around its peak equity and hold the nut flush blocker. As played, I would call and re-evaluate river (280 pot & V w/160 stack).

I'd agree with Poppa's range/reasoning, but I would either take out AJo/AJs or add in AxQs. A turn repop on this board with AJ seems ludicrous.

Odds are against it, but that weird line make me think he's holding J9s (spite/playback call PF, scary flop, bink turn).

Hero tanks for 30 seconds and calls.

River ($280):

Qd

Villain checks.

Hero?

Pot is 280 and he has 160 left? Shove or check it back. Hard to see V calling a shove with worse though.

He is not checking a FH here after raising the turn and you calling. And I don't think he is checking a straight either, the Q only completes the KT gutshot, which given the action, I don't think he's going to show up with.

So let's bet for value! We most likely have trips with a better kicker than he does. Based on that... He's gonna have a hard time folding a 9 here. I say we shove. But I wouldn't hate a bet of about 60% of his remaining stack, and calling his shove if he chooses to.

I say check it back: if he was bluffing with the check raise on turn, you will not get more value; if he has a legitimate monster, he's trying to pull the same move again. I would be happy to get 140 out of K9o, even those few time when he shows up with 98s/910s

LOL at this ^

I think calling the turn IP and re-evaluating the river was correct.

I'll post results tomorrow.

Bet as much as you think he'll call with 9x or some other crap 2-pair. The river check reeks of him being scared of the straight combos that just got completed regardless of how not in your range they are. If he can't beat a straight he can't beat K9. Milk a bit more out of him while you can. I don't hate a $60-$100 bet here.

+1 line makes no sense if he has a made flush or made FH because he's almost always shoving the river hoping you call with 9x or straight, which is fairly likely. I think I'm betting super-small here to get called by Ax, think $60-$100 is perfect.

Results:

Hero thinks for a while and checks it back.

Villain shows 8s 5s for a small flush.

I decided there was a lot of value in seeing his hand, and I can see it for free by checking. I also obviously believed that im beat here quite often and that he has a fairly narrow range of worse hands thatw ill call a river bet.

Regardless of results, I like a shove on turn because we can represent the king high flush here and the boat (since we have Ks and trip 9s) which puts a lot of pressure on flushes which I think he has the majority of the time here. Even if he isn't good enough to fold a flush you still have a ton of outs. Any Ace, King, Jack, Nine or spade.

He never has JJ here or AA here. The only reasonable full houses he can have here are A9hh and J9hh. That's it. Just 2 combinations. Tons of combinations of flushes.

We can discount AxJs or AxQs because he would have opened with these hands esp. in LP. His turn line is pretty weird and has me thinking either A9, J9 or a small flush like 67ss. His check on the river makes me think he definitely has a small flush and is wary of a possible boat or a higher flush, but if he has a small flush I think he's check calling here all day. Check behind on river.