Reads: Mid 20s white guy who is fairly loose pre flop and fairly decent post flop. Based on like 45 minutes of play, so I don't have too much on him. He did play the following hands...flatted a raise from the BB with QJs, check/called flop with tpmk, check/called turn with top pair and a flush draw, check/check river and he won. Also, he flatted my raise before in the BB, 3-way. I had AQo, it checked down to the river where I made an ace, and he check/raised my $16 bet to $75. I folded. He has once shown down 72s after limping behind limpers in the CO.

I open for $11 UTG with JJ 9 handed. Villain flats in MP and a shortstack flats in the BB.

Flop: 1052. I bet $25 and both players call.

TUrn: 10523. BB shoves for $15. At this point, it's about $250 effective versus the main deepstacked villain. I make it $50 and he flats.

River: 10523K. I check, he bets $45, hero?

Comments on previous streets also welcome.

I'm making the turn 80-85ish, if he flats I'm check calling basically any amount 0-120ish on the river. Nh besides that.

Raise bigger ott. $65 is better and he's still calling with the same range he calls $50 with

Continue to b/f otr

Raise turn bigger for sure.

Now, meh. Call and lose. Don't see what worse he can have but for the odds...meh.

Fixed an error, he bet $45 on the river, not $50.

My reasoning for making it $50 was I'm not committed to this pot, so want to make the smallest raise possible that still protects me and keeps weaker in. I actually plan to fold if he were to shove turn. The pot started out as $33 and $250+ effective, and I have negative expectation committing.

33 + 75 (25,call,call) right before he shipped 15 on turn if I'm reading it correct right. A raise to 80 would up it to 2/3 the current pot size (if above info is correct)

Also duke, I think its close from a b/f or c/c but think the c/c works in this spot slightly better. Your thoughts for b/fing?

Sent from my Nexus 5 using 2+2 Forums

Turn seems close between calling the $15 or making it $70+. By calling we under rep our hand and allow V to continue with 5s-9s which we'd other wise fold out.

The concern is that he called the flop on such a dry board texture, there are obv sets in his range and A4s gut shot got there ott. If he has TP then he likely raises the 15 anyway, as he wants to protect against overs as that's what it would look like we have if we're to just call the 15.

I'm not sure what hand he gets to the river and bluffs with, 43s maybe if he's as loose as u say he is pre, and possibly A3s, I wouldn't expect him to value bet worse as the king should force him to check back a pair of 10s.

You can keep his weaker hands in by betting more. He's probably going to call with AT and KT if you raise $65. Obviously you don't want to bomb it, but you do want to get max value.

Re b/f otr: he still has a lot of worse hands that will call. AT, QT, JT. Bet small on the river to get called by that range

So do we call river? It's tough to think he bets a ten here. It's also not a great bluffing spot since the side pot between just the two of us is pretty small (like $70).

On the other hand, we're getting more than 5-1 and only need to be good 17% of the time.

Obviously have to call here.

Agree with raising turn more and B/F the river (although I don't expect to get raised often on the river)

Results: Hero calls and is shown AA. BB had QQ.

Why would we ever b/f otr? If we're b/f otr, then we're essentially turning or hand into a bluff to try and fold out better, or get worse to call. Neither of which is really going to happen. What part of our range can stand a raise otr? None of it. If I'm villian I'm shoving all of my missed draws otr if hero barrels river. Therefore, I think we should be c/c most rivers, as played. The only hands we can b/c River with its like KK, TT. Any competent villian should know this and either fold or jam otr. I think too many mistakes are made by b/f.
Just my opinion. I'd love to hear anyone's case for b/f otr.

I think the entering argument when people say they will take a B/F line with one pair (whether over pair or good kicker) is to take it against 95% of LLSNL players that will not raise the river with worse. When the line is touted it is said with the knowledge that it is an exploitable line but the line that will make the most $ in the long run from loose passive LLSNL players. I disagree that we won't get called by worse. We will get looked up by most tens and some villains won't be able to fold a lower pair that had a straight draw on turn. They just have to see that they are beat.

I agree with this. Well said.