Reads: Mid 40s white guy. Slightly looser than average pre flop. Haven't seen much postflop so we'll say he's a standard TAG.

He open limps in MP. I'm to his immediate right and I make it $10 with JJ. Button flats and he flats. $33 in the pot and I have $90 left. Flop comes 1077. Villain checks, I bet $20, only villain calls. Turn is a 10. Check,check. River is a 5. He bets $35 into $73. Hero?

Now here is why I made this thread: To reach my own conclusion by doing this calculation. It's impossible to do these calculations in your head at the table and reach exact numbers, but through making tons and tons of EV calculations you can get a better idea at the table (i.e. if another situation comes where I have QQ on a 9 9 4 4 2 board and the exact same line was taken, I'd have a better idea on whether to call a river bet).

Step 1: Create a totally unbiased range for the villain, adjusting for information known about him. This is the hardest and most important step.

Step 2: Pokerstove

Step 3: Calculate EV.

Step 1: Range = A10, K10, Q10, J10, 10-9 suited, 10-8suited, 10-10 (discounted), 77, A7 (discounted), 87suited (discounted), 76 suited (discounted), 97suited (discounted), 55, busted nut flush draws (discounted), busted K-high flush draws (Discounted), 89 (discounted), 86 (discounted), QJ (discounted), and underpairs like 66 turning into a bluff (discounted).

Hands that are not discounted are hands that he'd play like this near 100% of the time. For example, if he has 10-X he would bet this river almost always, which is why I didn't discount those hands. For all the hands I discounted, they are hands that he might not play like this. For example, with 66 he will sometimes bluff and sometimes won't. Through observation, you can adjust a player's bluff frequency up or down. Here, I'll probably discounted 66 by half.

I also discounted A7(suited) because he might have check raised flop with this. A10 would almost always just flat flop while A7 will sometimes flat sometimes raise.

So notice what I'm doing: I'm making a range that involves a LOT of guesswork. This range could be totally wrong. It's literally impossible to know what his range is unless I interview him for hours and he never lies.

Step 2: Pokerstove. I have 29.508% equity. There are never any ties.

Step 3: EV. This is an extremely easy step when closing action on the river.

.29508*($73+35) = +$31.87
.70492*(-$35) = - $24.6722

Total EV = +$7.19644

Looks like calling is right.

You underwent some serious analysis of this hand, but to me it simply comes down to how often he has a T in his hand because he's folding to any raise without one.

The whole point of the analysis was to figure out how often he has a T/7 in his hand. The big question is "Does he have a 10/7 in hand hand more than ~75% of the time?"

I'm doing a lot of guesswork here, like I admitted. Like I said, my range could be off. Maybe he never ever limps J10o or Q10o preflop. If I eliminate these from his range the final numbers could be different. But without doing these analyses, you are doing even blinder, less accurate guesswork.

It all depends on if he fires with missed draws. Also, not sure if your read of TAG is correct with his open limp.

^ ya try loose-passive

I raise slightly more preflop. If we make it $13, we can then get it HU and pot the flop, which will create a $75 pot on the turn with an easy $62 shove on the turn. Raising to $10 sets us up for a slight overshove on the turn; ex. $20 HU, pot flop, creating a $60 pot with $70 left on the turn.

As played, I'd probably bet closer to pot on flop so I can more easily shove turn. Even though turn is a little sucky, we still only have a PSB left and villain could easily be drawing + overcards. I still shove.

As played, I snap call the river as there is enough busted draws and we showed weakness with our turn check.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Don't over think about this either your brain might explode. Just think to yourself, "i'm getting 3-1 to call, does it seem like 1/3 of his hands or less are missed draws/air here." If not, fold, if so call. He seems loose passive and could have possibly binked the ten. So you should probs fold. Solid but approximated reads on opponents are way more important for live poker than being able to compute exact hand ranges in your head in a given situation, and that will easily make you a winning player.

It depends on the V. If his range is mostly draws, you need to bet the turn. If it's mostly T, go into check/fold mode.

Your description of the V as TAG sounds quite inaccurate to the point of being misleading. He played this hand like a loose passive fish.

check the turn to snap call the river

nh

Your range is off. You are looking for a hand that a standard TAG would not only flat out of EP but also call a raise with two players in the pot, as well as passively flat-call a bet on the flop, check the turn, and then lead out on the river. I can't see JT, T9, or T8 suited or otherwise, and I'm extremely doubtful of QT and KT. AT would be at the bottom of his range in this spot. I see alot of strong Ax hands here, as well as some mid PP's (77-99). 66 may be at the bottom of his range here, but it depends on the TAG.