1/2 - how should I play this set?
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 14
MP1 ($250) - Tight/passive
MP2 ($60) - Typical recreational 1/2 player, calls too much both pre- and post-flop. Overvalues marginal hands.
BTN: ($100) - Arrived at the table recently, 20-something white guy.
Hero(SB) ($550) - Has been getting many good hands for the past hour and won many pots by betting them, but not getting called. Some of the other players (but not the villains in this hand) have commented on how he is a bully.
Dealt to Hero in SB: 2-2
Folds to MP1
MP1 calls $2
Folds to MP2
MP2 calls $2
Folds to BTN
BTN raises to $10
Hero calls $10
BB folds
MP1 calls $10
MP2 calls $10
FLOP:
9 - 3 - 2 rainbow
Hero bets $20
MP1 raises to $40
MP2 shoves for $50
BTN folds
Hero???
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 651
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 2,441
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 31
Call, then shove turn. It's about a pot sized bet and you're committed to the hand with bottom set.
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 157
Call, what else are you advocating? Board is pretty dry and a call on the flop sets up a turn jam as MP2 has about a pot sized bet left.
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 2,441
problem with calling is now there is a dry side pot, so you guys saying call flop and jam turn why not just jam the flop? if you call the flop you should check raise all in on the turn let him make a bet that has him commited to the pot imo. or just jam flop but dont call flop jam turn...
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 7,962
Shove flop cuz it looks like you're trying to iso the short stack
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 3,061
call. He has an overpair. Let him rip the turn and the CR him all in. He is never folding.
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 2,575
MP2 doesn't necessarily have a strong hand, he could make the small flop raise with 9X and unless he mostly limps his premium hands he doesn't have many overpairs.
MP2 has $200 behind after making his flop raise so, despite good pot odds, he may get away from 9X or TT if he is really weak/tight and thinks more in absolute money value terms rather than pot odds. It therefore really matters what his range is.
Couple of ranges for MP2:
1) If he normally opens/isolates his TT+ and is known to make information flop raises with vulnerable pairs: 99 33 A9s K9s Q9s J9s T9s 98s
2) If he usually limps his whole preflop range and won't make flop raises without TPTK+: 99 33 AA-TT A9s
If V has range 2 the chips are going in almost regardless of what you do.
If he has range 1 then shoving flop will fold out everything you beat and isolate you against oversets. On the other hand calling flop and seeing an A K Q J on turn may freeze MP2 up if he has the 1pair part of range 1. That will occur 1/3rd of the time.
So I think I would flat the flop and go for a x/r on turn. Even if V checks turn back on a scare card we can still bet river for something we think he'll call and get more value. We will lose this hand a proportion of the time to 99 and 33 but not as often as we win it so we're never folding.
