Villain (SB): 40s middle eastern man; solid TAG reg who plays 2/5; knows hero iso raises wide in CO/BTN ($500)

Hero (BTN): mid 20s asian man; TAG reg ($250)

Three limpers to hero who makes it $16 with ATo on the BTN. Villain looks at hero then 3 bets to $43. Now this is a little weird. I've never seen him 3 bet bluff before but this is the first time I've seen him 3 bet so small. Would he really want to give me such great pot odds to flat in position if he had QQ+?
Also since he's aware that I'm iso raising hands as weak as Q7s on the BTN this would be a great spot to 3 bet bluff wouldn't it?

Vs a positionally aware reg like him I feel like I can't be blindly continuing with only JJ+ AK+/set mining PPs like I would vs most 3 bets. Folding ATo is way too exploitable especially to such a small 3 bet from him. I could flat but ATo is not a hand that flops well even if it's doing fine vs his resteal range. But I can't shove $250 over that small 3 bet. So maybe 4 bet to $95? I do block AA/AK.

OK, so you think he is 3 betting you light, so you want to 4 bet him for what reason now? To fold out all the hands you dominate? My God, man, you have POSITION!!!

Call, and play some pokerz.

Just fold

i get your reasons, but the fact that you never saw him 3bet bluff before although he´s a reg and plays with you on a regular basis makes me just want to fold, regardless of his sizing.
if he really resteals wide here, calling is superior.

You're getting about three to one immediate odds to call but even if he knows you steal wide, I put his range as AT+, 88+. There's no reason to four bet and I think folding here is better than calling. You're against a bigger ace or pocket pair most of the time and even when you hit your hand, unless you flop Broadway or two pair or trip tens, you're not going to be able to maximize your value.
Based on description of V, doesn't seem like he's playing back at you. He has a hand. And even if he is playing back at you light, his range is ahead of ATo.

I think fold is the correct play here.

I have a hard time in these spots; think you win small pots and lose big pots in this spot. Don't feel good about it if I'm facing big bets on flop and/or turn when I make one pair.

If you call, then GL, don't think your hand necessarily behind V's range.

If one of the limpers call his 3bet you could try 4betting to 100-110 to see his reaction.

The problem is that most people don't really play back at you and you don't have clear evidence he 3bets light, so at best this is neutral and would only be a play I make because I'm curious.

Reread this part.
You aren't being exploited folding ATo, you're exploiting the fact that V has a nutted 3-bet range by folding.

I've never 3 seen him 3 bet bluff because usually the other guys at our game don't fold. But he knows I can fold most of my BTN range so a solid reg like him would for sure be 3 betting light sometimes vs my BTN. The sizing is also weird cause he always 3 bets at least 3x the raise with his QQ+/AK. And I don't think he's doing it merged he has to be polarized.

I usually try avoiding sitting on his right because I suspect he could 3 bet me light a lot when I raise CO/BTN but last night there was no other seat.

Calling here is pretty bad without a better sense of Villain's range and tendencies. SPR is going to be a little under 3; calling without a specific plan is going to be a huge leak. Are we folding 100% when we whiff, or floating sometimes? Stationing when we don't?

I'm not as down on the 4b as everyone else seems to be, but I guess I have an online background, where 4betting regs light is a thing Yeah it's possible he doesn't really have a TON of light 3b, but it's crazy to assume the bulk of a thinking reg's range is premiums in this spot when he clearly knows we iso light a lot. My bigger concern is that he might have what would turn out to be a pretty accurate assessment of our 4b range, which means we're getting 5b by more than just premiums...

So yeah, bottom line, just fold.

It's not great odds you have, you have less than 10:1 mining odds, it's not a small raise. It might be small in terms of dollars, it's not small in terms of a percent of the effective stacks.

Let's look at the math first. You're looking for a fold if you are 4 betting light. The pot is $59 and you want to bet $95. So you need a fold 62% of the time for this to be break even. Since you have never seen him 3bet light before and you know him, the chances of this happening is less than 62% of the time.

A problem of exploiting players (Q7s) is that you open yourself up to being exploited. At 1/2, the vast majority of players are just playing their cards. Just accept that occasionally, a bluff doesn't work.

Yeah it does open myself up to being exploited. But I'm not gonna stop iso raising 35% from the BTN because unless the people who call are stations I think it's very profitable especially if you play a heads up pot in position vs a fish. I mean just look at this!

MP2 46.47% 44.92% 1.55% Q7s
MP3 53.53% 51.97% 1.55% 99-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q2s+, J2s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, 32s, ATo-A2o, KJo-K2o, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o


We have 46% equity vs the crap people limp call with even with a hand as weak as Q7s. But the problem in these spots is when a good TAG recognizes that you're iso raising so wide on the BTN. And if we're supposed to fold > 85% of our range which is mostly what's being suggested here then he can 3 bet from the blinds very wide and show a huge profit. There's a reason they don't 3 bet light in general and that's cause people don't fold. But if they know I'm gonna fold > 85% of the time they'd be stupid not to 3 bet light.

On the other hand when you're dealing with one or two 3 bets from a good TAG you haven't really seen 3 bet light before it's a very uncomfortable spot cause you know he could be exploiting you yet 4 betting seems spewy when you don't have "proof". This is why I hate having good TAGs on my left.

1) He never bluff raises .. AND he's OOP
2) He plays 2-5 .. he knows stack sizes since in 2-5 they can range from 200-2000
3) His raise is shove/fold sized .. you see a Flop dominated or he folds out when you are probably ahead
4) He looked at you .. we have a challenge!!

My big item here is your stack size and his raise size. It is possible that he is light and wants to keep the pot small so he is not committed OTT after he c-bets. How often does he c-bet? When he looked at you did he glance down at your stack .. but I am going to assume he already knows where you are at. If he did look at your stack it still could mean light, but I am leaning more towards you being behind to a pp or larger combos of cards .. maybe KQs. (would he really raise KQs and bloat the pot .. not a 2-5er!!)

If you want to play some hand-cuffed poker, you can flat or 4-bet. (not shoving)
If you are looking for pure 'value', you are flipping at best or well behind ... which of course means fold, fold , fold. I am not looking for 46% in bloated pots when I am 'now' even more short-stacked than I was before the cards were dealt (with reference to the V). GL

Do you think he could possibly be raising this for value?

A) He knows you open light so he probably beats your range
B) He knows you will fold to the normal-sized 3 bets he does against the non-thinkers
C) He doesn't want to just flat you with a good hand

So he raises hoping for a call for value, and hoping you might go into the hand thinking he's FOS.

Fold.

Keep raising ATo from the button.
Generally keep folding it to 3bets. Profit.

If you think 4 betting is a good idea here at all, your location of "Spew City" is perfect for you IMO.

Fold.

What else do you need?

this

He cbets pretty often and tends to multi-barrel. I was staring at the middle of the table so I just noticed him look at me in my peripheral vision. I don't think it's merged I think it's a polarized range of JJ+ AK (33 combos with my A blocker) and an unknown number of bluff combos. Assuming he respects the 4 bet when bluffing and never 5 bet bluffs, then as venice pointed out we need roughly 60% fold equity for this to break even. This means he needs 55 bluff combos.

A9s-A2s,K9s-K6s,98s,87s,76s,65s (with my A blocker) is 56 combos but the question is would he really 3 bet all those? Of course I can list off other hands like Q8s/97s that are also candidates but if he doesn't 3 bet them often enough to make it effectively 56 combos (for example 110 potential bluff combos half the time) we just gotta fold. One thing I somehow just realized is that yes I block AA/AK but I also block the Axs combos he can bluff with.

/thread.

LRR, seems like you're making this waaaaay too complicated. He might be exploiting you for a few bbs in this particular spot. So what? That's fine. That's the downside of your otherwise-very-profitable strategy.

I also think you're massively underestimating the likelihood that he's raising small because he doesn't want you to fold. Let's say you've raised from the button and he has no reason to think you have a legit hand. He also knows that you'll usually fold to a 3X reraise. He has AA/KK/QQ. He isn't going to just call and play a 3-way pot out of position. But he isn't going to raise his normal size, because he expects that'll fold everyone, including you, out. So he elects to raise small and hope that you level yourself into a spew. And (good news!) you're now looking at his small raise size and debating a spewy 4!.

Your plan is to raise wide from the button and release when you face pressure. You're facing pressure. Just release and play the next hand.

if you try and play too fancy and think too deep at spots like this you will get into more trouble than good at 1/2 // 1/3

If you had raised the button with T8s would you be thinking about 4betting here?

This sort of thinking is how players level themselves into assigning opponents a wider bluffing range than is actually true. (As a nit, I benefit when LAGs fool themselves into thinking I don't have a nit range in certain spots.) He's probably not adjusting his 3bet range by mixing in bluffs. If he is adjusting to your loose raises, he's probably more likely to widen his flatting range or widen his 3bet value range while continuing to never 3bet bluff.

The justification for 4betting isn't that he could be 3betting you light. The justification for 4betting is that you have a blocker to AA and he folds QQ and possibly KK to your 4bet. But first, you'd actually have to demonstrate that he folds those hands.

If he 3bets you with JJ+, AQ+, there are 6 combos each of JJ-KK, 12 combos each of AK and AQ, and 3 combos of AA, so he has 45 combos in that range. If he folds JJ, QQ, AK, and AQ, that is 80% of his range. If you remove AQ from his 3betting range, that goes down to 73%.

I don't think you should 4bet, but you're probably better off thinking about whether you can push him off of QQ than if he is 3betting with 87s.

I know I've hurt myself recently because I greatly overestimated my villains and thought they were far more skilled than they really were. It turned out they were just playing their own cards. That's something to watch out for.