This!

Yesterday I raised a limper to $25 with KQ. BB and limper call.
Flop 953 rainbow. I dont know if I want to Cbet or not. Im thinking about it when BB checks and the limper leads $25. He made my decision for me. I raised to $70 and they both folded. The limper will have a 9 here almost every time and in his mind when I raise, I have an overpair. The BB needs an even bigger hand to call now after a bet and raise in front of him.

I wouldnt try it on a J33 flop.

Bluff raising a turn lead is much trickier and depends on a lot of factors for me to try it.

Fold pre

c/f flop

AP, fold turn

I get why you may want to bluff here, but you should resist the urge and save your money.

+1 this is what I was trying to say.

Villain's range after calling flop is strong. He continues telling the story on the turn. Why bother bluffing into a strong range with zero equity? If you're bluffing this hand, you're bluffing any two cards. Flop bet is fine, turn raise complete spew.

It isn't bad to cbet in some absolute sense. It may be good it may be bad, it may be marginal.

It depends on the villain.

Online I would cbet this vs an unknown full stack because you generally more FE vs them than your average live player.

My lower cbet% and higher value% is an exploitative adjustment to the players in my live game.

Against a top 22% range (296 hands) excluding AA-QQ we are in bad shape. The reason value betting overpairs is so profitable is because we expect to be called by worse quite often.

Betting A7 here is problematic and counter-intuitive because we are going to be called by an extremely wide range a high percentage of the time on this flop. We can't bet scare cards because they make up a good portion of villain's flop calling ranges (flush draws), nor are our hole cards clean outs because we are often still behind made hands or outkicked on the Ace. Lets look at a reasonable preflop calling range.

JJ-22,A2s+,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,ATo +,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Against this range as a whole we have ~26% equity and are notably behind villains' ranges.




Of those 296 hands, 60 hands (20%) are massively ahead as an 80/20 favorite and both villains are equally likely to contain them.

Hands we are currently behind: 60 combos comprised of 39 hole card pairs, 9 sets, 4 top pair + 's, 8 top pair /'s




Another 9 hands (3%) are 75/25 favorites

Hands that have great equity: 9 nut flush combos, 5 of which out-kick our Ace




And finally, the non-nut flush draws + OESD comprise another 12 combos (4%) and are a 53/47 favorite

Hands that are small favorites: 8 two-over + flush draw combos + 4 OESD combos




Add it all up and we are a massive underdog to 27% of villain's preflop calling range which both are equally likely to have. And I'm not even going to bother with the variety of hands that we are slightly >50% against but will call us "just because" since we bet 1/2 PSB on a board that completely misses our range. Good luck navigating that mine field.

If you are advocating a bet here please don't consider it anything more than an ill advised bluff. If it gets through, congrats you bluffed into the bottom of villain's range, but there is virtually nothing to like about the prospects for this hand. And that is also not even considering how often we can be semi-bluff raised off the "best hand" by something like KQ or A6 which we are nearly flipping with.

Check/fold flop and move on

It is not simply plugging range and calculate equity. Betting 1/2 we only needs V to fold 33% to show immediate profit.

I have FE as well on turn when turn favors our perceived range.

Your calculation is kinda like we only have 1/2 PSB left and betting is not good.
This is not river. It is more complicated than you think.

If you want, you can plug in a decision trees on different run outs to calculate EV against V's preflop fatting range. Your decision tree ends on the flop is simply invalid.

No kidding. It's called a starting point, which is more than anyone else has been bothered to begin with.

And? The same can be said for any single hand. That is not a value added statement. FWIW, Op bet $23 upping the break-even to 40%.

Do you have FE or do you think you have FE? Do you know your opponents well enough to know they will fold TT on a Q turn? But what happens when they call the flop with QJ flush draw? Now you've value cut yourself twice.

I think it is more complicated than you think.

This is a starting point to show how poorly we are doing against a reasonable preflop calling range vs. two opponents. If you want to invalidate it, feel free to go right ahead, but given how lazy people are around here with regard to range analysis I won't hold my breadth.

It's okay to have a flop check range and a check/fold range, especially against two opponents when we are sandwiched in the middle.

I think I have FE, but that's based on the fact that my c-bets work a lot here, and if a c-bet doesn't work the second barrel often does.

That hand is one combo. Overcards favor our range compared to Vs unless they are floating with overs a ton.

Of course we're doing poorly. We whiffed the flop. That's why it's a bluff and not a value bet.

There's no point in doing a range analysis because our ideas on how villain will play certain parts of his range are different. If I do a range analysis I will just find out that a c-bet is slightly profitable because I am assuming that the majority of villains overfold over two streets on this texture.

I have a check/fold range. I think I am more selective about hands I decide to c-bet than a lot of other 2+2ers. I just think this is a particularly good hand to have in a c-bet range.

You basically says every point that I wanted to say. Great jobs.


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Ok so on 8/47 (17%) of turns we will get a non- A, K or Q we can barrel that helps our perceived range (but doesn't guarantee folds). And on 8/47 (17%) of turns we will get a non-A/K/Q we can also double barrel (which will carry even less FE).

So on 1/3 of turns our range/equity will improve but we will still have no idea whether our bet carries FE because of how wide their flop calling ranges are. We also carry significant RIO when we turn an ace. Strike 1.

What's our plan on the other 2/3 of turns that cut our already weak equity in half? Strike 2.

This is shaping up to be an incredibly spewy hand that requires a triple barrel bluff on non- run outs (because double barreling and giving up is massively -EV) all the while having no idea what our FE is and representing a super polarized range of AA-QQ that board be damned hasn't even considered the possibility could be behind. All because we felt compelled to c-bet this flop. Strike 3.