The background

Hero has checkraised villian once and raised villian once in ~1 hour or so of play. Both times hero raised or c-raised villians bet 3x on the flop and villian folded. Villian appears to carry himself as a serious-poker-player who was willing to lay down hands to avoid sticky situations. Hero hasnt shown down a single bluff yet.

The Set Up

hero is in BB, villian is in SB. Villian has ~300 and hero has him easily covered (~500).

Preflop

Hero has 9-5o. 3 limps, villian completes, hero checks his option.

The Flop

Pot is $10.
As Qs 5d. Hero is ready to pitch his hand if anyone sneezes at the pot but it is checked around.

The Turn

As Qs 5d Ac.
Villian leads for $10.

Thoughts: after it is checked around, hero is fairly confident no aces are out there, as at the table people were usually firing their ace pairs on the flop to protect against random broadway hands and flush draws. Hero is thinking of taking the pot away if villian checks, as a $6-10 dollar bet should take it down.

When villian leads, hero puts himself in villians shoes and ponders what hero would lead with in the spot. Hero would lead with an ace, a single queen, flush draws, random bluffs, and mid-pairs, with the range mostly weighted towards a queen.

Hero strongly smells a queen. Hero's first instinct is to raise and steal the pot away from the queen.

Therefore, Hero raises (without pausing), 3X the bet (same raise as all the hands before) to $30 ? Too ambitious?

Thoughts: of course, hero can play it 'str8forward' and fold and not get involved, but hero thinks this may be a good spot to steal the pot away from the queens unless villian has an ace.

After consideration, I believe that the random bluffs and flush draws fold, the aces call (or sometimes raise). Hero believes that naked queens fold at least 60+% of the time (bad logic?). Mid-pairs probably fold 70+% of the time (too ambitious?).

Therefore, Hero thinks that villian may just give up the relatively small pot instead of playing a guessing game as to whether i really have the ace or not. Hero is risking $30 to take down a $20 pot, and hero estimates that the majority of time the hand will be over here, at least 66%. Hero is also not going to shut down on the river in case villian gets stubborn with a naked queen. All in all, I kinda like this raise, and I think it's a solid, aggressive move that takes it down right now a large part of the time. Thoughts?

Table folds to Villian and Villian calls.

The River

Pot: $70
As Qs 5d Ac Qc

Grrrr. Hero is not happy to see that card hit.

Villian checks.

After villian calls, Hero tosses out the bluffs, and most flush draws and mid pairs from villians percieved range. Villians range is now strongly strongly weighted towards a queen. Aces, mid pairs, and busted flush draws make up a smaller percentage.

Hero thinks that busted flush draws and mid pairs that would win in a showdown against me will fold vast majority of time (although a flush drawn with a king might hero call). Aces obviously check-raise me and I feel foolish and I fold easily. Hero thinks that a queen might still lay it down if Hero bombs the pot, although that might be wishful thinking.

Hero thinks for a bit and fires $70. Thoughts?

In general, do you think my instincts were correct here?

Thanks!!
Buckethead22

you've narrowed V range on river to almost exactly queens full. you won't fold out a Q for a psb here. your hand doesn't look like Ax to villain for same reasons you described that it doesn't look like his is Ax to you. if you want a fold, i think you're going to have to overbet the pot significantly. this gets dicey as you have to weigh lots of factors, such as: people don't like to fold full houses, even under fulls, people get suspicious of big overbets ("why so much?"), and you aren't really repping Ax either. could get expensive. overall, i think your river bluff is probably - EV.

idk if the turn bluff was too ambitious, but keep in mind that you are risking 30 to win 15, not 20 as you must consider the rake, which is a big factor in these small pots.

The turn bluff was aggressive, but deciding if it was good or bad is very situational, not something I can really do remotely. It is a judgement call on what villain's range is, what he bets on turn and what he will fold. Against a passive type villain, bluffing here is bad because a lot of his range is Ax, against more aggressive one who could bet any pair for some small value here, then the bluff is fine. Against a stationary or sticky one, then it's bad, against a mubsy one then it's good.

My thinking in general would be that the raise bluff is probably OK, but as soon as the raise gets called you need to plan on shutting it down. Villain is unlikely to chase on the paired board, he is OOP and could be drawing dead. When he calls turn he probably has a weak AX or decent Qx and doesn't believe you. The river card is not a good card for continuing your bluff. Ax obviously never folds now and Qx would require a massive bet to have any chance of getting a fold.

You haven't mentioned your overall image/age and V's age. Prior history is highly relevant here. If he's 50 and you're 25, with the prior history described, look for him to likely take a stand even if you bomb the river.

I don't like it. If guy has a Q, which he nearly always does, he is not folding. Zeebo's theorem. You don't represent an ace well. And again, people in LLSNL do not fold full houses, especially to a 70 dollar bet. Let it go and bluff on a bluff friendly board. This isn't one of them.

If you looked up spew in the dictionary, you would find this hand description. Even if you think your instincts were right on the turn, you are risking 30 to win 20 with people behind you left to act.

Then, you try to blast a 1/2 player, who you've been raising a couple times over the last hour, off of what you believe to most likely be queens full.

You have set up a dynamic with this guy to do it when you have it, not when you don't.

Do you not realize villain could also be leading the turn with an ace? In fact, he is the most likely player to have an ace in this spot. Also, it is possible that another player has an ace.

In general, I like the idea but don't think this is the best spot for it. If it was a late position raiser I would like it more. The other issue I have is that there is hardly any dead money in the pot. We are taking quite a risk for a miniscule pot. If someone bet and then there were a couple of callers then that would be a more enticing pot.

Also, the paired board makes it less likely you have an Ace, thus making it harder that villain folds a queen.

OK thanks all for the thoughts. 5 posters all more or less agree that the turn raise may have been ill advised but wasn't awful and I needed to shut it down on the river. Thanks!

Final question just for my own edification and for next time; If river was a blank, do you hate the river bomb less?

I think I raise the turn but tank a little. I am never insta raising the turn here w an A.

Risking $30 to win $15 with 3 people still to act (4 including SB) and no equity whatsoever in a limped pot where Ax is just waiting to stack off does seem spewy to me yes.

Barreling the river Q was iffy. Bluffing a villain you've been abusing lately is meh.

That said, how did villain respond to the turn raise? If he stared you down when contemplating his decision he is bluff catching, and a river bet (on a different river) will usually get the job done. If he calls quickly or without a stare down, he's either on a draw or strong. Dont bet the river, especially since you can beat a whiffed draw.

A for effort though.

I feel there is only one conclusion here. Spew.

Up until this point, everything's good. It's after that second pair falls off that everything goes downhill. Once he makes that call on the turn, what else could he have other than an ace he's playing slow, or a queen and doesn't believe you have an ace.

The board's double paired, and you lose if he calls with any card bigger than a nine, and you said a hero call with king-high was a possibility. Once the vill checks the river, check back and hope he doesn't have a high card. Firing that $70 is most likely just donating when you fold to his ship, which he will do with an ace or queen.

Personally I don't think it's a good spot OTT. If I took a shot and got called OTT I would give up OTR.

This is the kind of play i used to make on a regular basis. I'd get all of my money in with little/nothing pursuing a pot that was originally only $10 hoping that the villain would give me credit for the hand im representing. It almost always resulted in me going home with empty pockets. After having folded to you multiple times without ever seeing your hands the villain is likely suspicious of you consistently outplaying him and may get stubborn. If the V called you on the turn with a Q, he is likely to call on the river in most cases.

You went from investing 2$ to investing 100$.

Spew spew spew and ill advised spot to do it in.

Why are we deciding to go crazy in a limped pot with 95 off. Just seems like there will be better spots to pick up pots.

This is probably the most important and overlooked point in this thread (in my opinion). Hero has so much ill will/spite equity built up against this villain and then picks the ABSOLUTE WORST TIME to use it!

This is insane. Why the certainty that noone has an ace? Also you dont rep an ace yourself you realise? Not on flop in accordance with your own logic. Then Neither on turn since why would an ace raise there?

I think that you should have min-raised the villain on the turn to better represent having the ace. Your raise was pretty big. Why would you want to fold him out if you had the ace?

Give up on the river. This isn't a good spot to bluff. I don't even know if an overbet or shove would work. I'd give an overbet or shove OTR a 55-60% success rate. Given your history with the villain over the last hour he is more inclined to call you if only for the sole purpose of looking you up.

Either way I hope you showed your hand as this looks like a great spot to advertise.