Hero: (cutoff) young hoodie. Have been pretty tight recently.
V: 40s white male, he is aggressive. Saw him triple barrel bluff oop and muck when called he had total air. Our history is me 3-betting him pre w AK oop preflop, him calling. me c-betting the 992 board, him raising and taking it down.

Eff stacks 200

One guy makes it 10 in LP, Hero call w KQ, Button call, SB call, V calls from the BB.

Flop (50)

K96

SB check, V bets 10, initial raiser calls in MP, Hero raises to 65, fold to V who ships all in for 300, folded to hero.

Q1- is the flop raise good or bad?
Q2- fold or call now?

Raise is good, though a bit bigger than needed, IMO. I make it $40-50, and it's a b/f, even against an aggro V. He's either trying to set a price to draw, or trying to induce a raise.

AP, it's close since you raised so much, depending on how many bare draws you give him. His range is combo draws, some bare SDs (I tested at it the non club 78s combos), some NFDs (I gave him 3) and sets. You're only 33% against that range, but there's $180 in the pot before his raise. His effective raise is $125, so your call would be less than 1/3 of the pot, so you're getting the price you need.

That's giving him almost as many bare draws as combos/sets, though. Is he really that aggro? If we take out half the bare draws, you'd still be paying 29% of the pot, but now only have 26.4% equity.

Call, getting almost 3 to 1, a guy who seems to be addicted to semi-bluffing, just call. Easy game.

The raise on the flop is too big. He can't call, he can only shove. Go to 40, and if he calls you'll have a pot-size-ish shove on safe turn cards.

I like your raise.

I'm snap call beating V into the pot.

Garick, you can also give this guy all 87 imo (player read + he is getting > 5:1 pre-flop), nearly all NFD < AQs, 66 and 99 sets only, some two pair. JT, QT, QJ not impossible. Spastic KJ, KT not impossible. I wouldn't put that into Stove, but it's non-zero.

Might be a touch much, but overall I think we have at least 50% equity here.

Depending on how the pre flop raiser is playing shouldn't we consider a 3bet? You gave no info on the raiser.

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I feel like the history you give isn't worth much in figuring out his range in this hand. (If you made me guess a specific hand, I'd guess k with another club, probably not very large.). I'd want to know more about how he has played in multiway pots when faced with someone showing strength post flop and hands where he has lead into the preflop raiser on the flop.

I forgot about KcXc. That gives him several more "combo-draw" level semi bluffs. It improves our equity to 36.5% with the NFDs left in, and still 32% without them. Seems more definitely a call at this point.

this is def a possibility and probably should be thought about.


agree with everyone else who thinks 2bet is a little big.

agree with everyone else who thinks snapping off the 3bet is correct with given odds.

I think the read says something. He probably is aggressive. We saw a 3x barrel bluff oop... wish I knew if it made sense (was he just firing like a madman? was he barreling good cards? was he barreling into a station?).

He also raised our c-bet on 992, which is pretty lol. I think folding to that is OK, but it looks a bit Yeti, and I'm certainly starting to get a picture of an aggressive V who can have 87 and various other hands in the OP hand.

On a drawy board like this, and with what we know of this villain so far, I really do think our equity is 50%+.

Let me guess, he either limp/called pre or called a raise out of the blinds. He wasn't the one who raised pre, right?



As for the hand, it doesn't look like V is doing this for value, just playing a draw too fast. But unless the idea was to induce this, I think the better long run play is a smaller raise for value on your part.

I had exact same situation and guy turned up with a set of 6s.

That's being a bit results oriented, I would think. None of us are saying that 66 and 99 aren't in his range.

How many hands or hours have you played with said villain?

2-3 way, yes. 5 way Nah. KK, 99, 66, AK, 7c8c are all within villains reasonable preflop range and they all beat us. Everyone is focusing on villain as if we were heads up preflop. THERE WERE 5 PLAYERS THAT SAW THE FLOP !!! If you go broke on 5way pot with TPGK, well......

Only GOD can save you?