Posting for a friend who faced this hand the other day.

Hero bought in for $200 but is up to $400.

3 limps to Hero in BB with TT...he raises to $15. 2 calls from MP and BTN. Pot ~50.

Flop 834r. Hero bets 40. MP calls, BTN thinks and shoves for ~$200 total. MP has ~$300 behind.

Reads:

MP Won some pots with strong holdings each time
BTN No real read as he had been very quiet

Hero??

From my perspective only hands we are ahead of are 56, A8 and 99 (maybe 77??). Doubtful there are JJ+ hands out given pre-flop action. MP should have a pretty strong hand here if he is thinking at all but I may be giving him too much credit.

Thoughts on pre-flop bet sizing too.

So we need to call $160 to win $330. We need to be good about 1/3 of the time to call profitably, if we ignore MP, who so far sounds like he might be drawing.

Or to be more precise, we need 33% equity to call profitably.

I plugged in the board and the following hand range to Flopzilla:
99, 88, 44, 33, A8s, 65s
We have 51% equity against that range, which makes this a snap call.

Hero's hand looks pretty strong here, he raised out of the BB and then bets close to pot 3 ways. MP probably needs minimum an 8x or 56 to call, but could potentially be trapping with 2 pair or a set, now BTN shoves for 100BB into that action. I think I find a fold somewhat easy here, although I have been in spots like this where I folded and was showed worse hands, so it's kinda villain dependent.

Pre-flop sizing is probably a little small, were likely to be OOP and would much rather have this hand HU as opposed to MW, $22 or so would likely do it.

Why not include 34 in his range?

Also from the blinds, I'm quite the raiser, especially multi-way

Pump this to 18-20

As played, I'm folding, this doesn't appear to be a bluff, nor draw type of hand. We are getting raised all-in on quite the dry board, sure we have one 34 out there but this is rarely a bluff from 56, more so 34, 88, 33,44

Fold.

I've seen this move in 1/2 games and it's almost always trying to level AA into calling... The only reason his range could be wider is that he could be squeezing (but once again, I would doubt that based on reads)

I think this is a more realistic equity calc for this hand, you are assuming these players can't have 34s or 84s in their range here which is a big mistake. You also make the assumption that MP is likely drawing, which I think is also a big mistake, this is a very dry board with only one obvious draw. MP has already put in close to 30BB in this pot and I think is unlikely to fold that often. We also need to consider that we are 150BB eff with MP and that means when we get it in bad here it's a slightly bigger mistake.

Board: 8c 4d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.662% 21.66% 00.00% 89587 0.00 { ThTs }
Hand 1: 38.458% 38.06% 00.40% 157410 1641.00 { 99-88, 44-33, A8s, 84s, 65s, 43s }
Hand 2: 39.881% 39.48% 00.40% 163295 1641.00 { 99-88, 44-33, A8s, 84s, 43s }

FWIW Hero's hand range should be pretty face up IMO though not sure it matters at 1/2

Grunching ...

Nice bet OTF, now fold, TT rarely good in this spot.

Giving 2 villains virtually monster ranges here strikes me as wrong.

Yeah there's absolutely no reason to be all that scared of MP given his action in this hand has been call call call. I think the range for hand 2 is alright although idk how much 84s shows up.

I'm not 100% sure this is right. I've seen tons of people spaz with top pair-like hands because hero "Obv had AK" people love to put the PFR on AK in SSNL so they can look like a genius when they are correct.

fold

Him thinking is my biggest concern here. Tank raise is going to be strength here.

If the post just said he raised, I think it's a pretty solid call. Warlock's range would be about right.

given the tank before the raise, I think youve gotta fold here, but you were actually there, so you gotta judge the tell on your own.