1/2 $300 max.

Hero $900ish. MAWG. Aggressive but not overly bluffy. Basically getting value from strong hands.
V1. 30s WG $450ish. Nothing notable. Not terrible. Has not shown any bluffs yet. Bets normal sizing on hands where he showed down strong hands. Probably VPIP %35/PFR %15.

OTT: H opens to $15 from MP w. 99. Short stack donkey calls. V1 calls from BB.

Flop: $40 after rake. T82r. V1 leads out $65. Don't see many overbet donks like this heads up (shorty donk had about $30 remaining). It feels bluffy like a draw or middle pair trying to take it down. shorty folds. Hero calls (mistake?)

Turn: $175. T82 - 2. Completes rainbow. V1 quickly jams for like $380. One item of note, there is a $1000 high hand jackpot every 30 minutes on this day. quad Ts or 8s would currently quality and most players are not blasting for folds with overbets with sets on dry boards.

I'm trying to figure out what he has. My thinking is his value hands are T8 and 22 and possibly JJ. Maybe he's slowplaying KK/AA? His bluffs could be 33-77, J9, 79. I block a lot of J9/79. But whatever he has, value, or bluff, his line makes no sense.

What do you do when you face a line that makes no sense? More likely to get it in or more likely to fold?

I’d rather bluff catch flop with A8 than 99. 99 heavily blocks the reasonable draws. Just fold flop, you’ll have plenty of overpairs here. Usually when someone blasts off on flop he’s not gonna make life easy and let you get to showdown.

I doubt he has a boat / quads but he could easily have jacks or queens. Maybe even AT?

This is something that is hard to answer, it depends too much on villain and situation. There are passive players that I fold anything not close to the nuts when they shove. There are spaz players who I will call with 2nd pair or even worse because the bigger their bet the more likely it's air. Generically I expect villains lean passive and if I know nothing of villain I fold more then call.

One type of hand I would consider that you didn't mention is a random 2X. Villain was bluffing on the flop but turned hard value and shoved, hoping to still be read for a bluff. Also T8 is not much of a value hand any more as the 2 counterfeits villain for over pairs.

In this specific case I would fold flop. You block the reasonable draws and with just one meh pair your probably behind the rest of his range. Once villain over donks the flop it's pretty typical to face another over bet on the turn. The jam is suspicious but I need something more then suspicious to try and pick off an over bet.

i mean calling it off with worse than tx just isnt the way to play this spot. probably at+ but can see an argument for kt if u think hes really out of line. hes putting in 150 bb when you have every tp / overpair / set in your range into you and a short stack. id just fold the flop and be whatever about it. your hand sucks and cant really improve

One possibility, unless you know he wouldn’t do this (you don’t say), is that he is betting for protection with a T. The large bet screams “fold.” If this isn’t a big hand trying to level you into a call, it’s a T that doesn’t want to see overcards.

I’d fold flop for that reason. I’m not saying this is definitely Tx but I am saying that if we aren’t sure how else to make sense of his line, this is possible, and should swing you to a fold.

Have to fold here. I understand calling flop but certainly it's over on the turn. Bluffcatching with an underpair is inadvisable, for the reasons other have stated, and you have many stronger hands on this board. Wouldn't be surprised if villain has a hand like JJ that he is going crazy with because he doesn't want to see any overcards come off.

You noted as well that you heavily block villain's only reasonable semi-bluffs. The 2 is not a good card to bluff, and yet he has continued. Also would be very foolish of him to start an airball bluff on the flop with the shortstack involved.

I just fold flop and don't think much about it.

Unless he's doing this often I'd lean more towards shrug folding KT for this size. Even if he donked $20 I would just fold 99 here.


If we get to turn the only hands we beat are 8x (and we block the most obvious/vulnerable 98) and draws which we block and complete random air ... and people tend not to play either of the first two that way, and only very special people play air this way. We still lose to all two pair and sets.

Donkbets are almost always designed to get a fold from the initial raiser. The typical reasoning is going to be "i put you on AK" so they dont want to get outdrawn. It's a rather poor play because they could always bluffcatch themselves, but fish are extremely results oriented and will curse themselves for "letting you get there" even if you cbet. A donkbet that wants to win the pot can be anything really, from total air, bottom pair, to vulnerable top pairs. 99 is extremely borderline obviously because it fits right into his donkbet range. This is compounded on the turn where he is clearly bluffing with the best/worst hand whether he knows it or not.

General counter to this is to call with any hand that beats a bluff and raise with all of your own bluffs. We dont need to bluff with 99 obviously so we just call the flop. His turn bet is most definitely terrible so for you to say he's not a terrible player is a server miscalculation, and I would hope you would have observed other tendencies of his by now to recognize this. I say fold the turn but if he keeps doing this you're going to have to look him up eventually, just hopefully you have more of a TP type hand when it comes, and in a spot like this if you ever have something like J9 you better go bombs away on him.

I agree with this and it was my thought process possibly better explained than I did. I had not seen anything like this from this player yet hence the "not terrible".

I'm in the fold flop camp. Shorty is getting very good odds to call it off. So unless we think V isn't aware of the short stack (or the implications of that) he should know he's going to showdown a high % of the time.

Was the short stack in the SB? Otherwise I'm confused why he calls your preflop bet but folds the flop before it's your time to act.

im going to start overbetting pots only with the nuts, considering everyone thinks they're bluffs

Everyone here. Your typical low stakes player will not.
To answer other question, the shorty was in LP. I called w/ him to act but was not terribly worried since the bet covered him.

I realized my op was not clear. Shorty called raise. V1 led out. I called shorty with less than bet in stack folded on flop.

Results:

Hero tank folds. V1 shows 44. Said he felt I was bullying table too much and wanted to pick a spot to play back. I was there for another hour or two, and he never spazzed out again.

I think the big mistake here is calling an overbet on the flop only to fold to the turn jam. If this is someone who overbets a lot then I guess you have to do it but it was pretty obvious he wasn’t going to stop betting. The decision point is the flop.

I fold flop. Not surprised with the result but the thing is with over-large bet sizes, you don't have to worry about making a mistake by folding marginal hands too often. Just go ahead and fold if you don't have something solid, until you know what the sizing means and then you can expand (or contract) your calling range.

The few times I've ever been in a hand like this... even vs these villain types... they've always had a vulnerable over pair who doesn't want a high card to come on the turn or river.

This particular hand sure as hell looks like JJ. I would be shocked if it was anything else considering we have zero evidence of him getting out of line. And if we're wrong, we make a mental note but it could just be a random spazz so the read may be useless. I think there's better spots, even if it turns out we're ahead.

You want to bluff catch against someone who doesn't bluff much. That's not the wise decision. If the guy has played tight, hasn't gotten out of line and has picked the perfect time for the bluff then good for him.