Hero - $200 stack. Taggish, haven't been getting a lot of cards so Villain may view me as tighter than I am.

Villain - $800. Laggish. Has been limping and calling a lot, but has raised pre-flop with QQ once. Have seen him go all-in on the turn with a draw (hit on the river). He's won the rest of his all-ins with made hands (Flush, straight, two pair) and gotten all-in either on the turn or the river with them. He did previously bet $40 in a T2TTJ board on the river with a $100 pot (after he called a pre-flop raise OOP, called a flop bet and then donk betting the turn and river) and did not show his hand (was called by A8 who won with Ace high)

Hero - UTG with AJ raises to $12. Villain calls in MP. Button calls, blinds fold.

Flop ($36): AQ2
Hero bets $30, Villain calls, Button folds.

Turn ($96): Q
Hero checks, Villain bets $30, Hero calls

River ($156): 6
Hero checks, Villain snap goes all-in ($128 to me), Hero tanks and..

Hero asks Villain after a minute or so, "QT?" and Villain looks surprised at the question and says, "No. Straight" Hero tanks for another 30 seconds or so and Villain says "AJ good". I was a little surprised at him calling him my exact hand and saying it's good. Thoughts?

Your hand is face up, he called it out, and said its good. I fold.

Really it has more to do with the fact this board is so dry. He would have had to float this flop with air. Qx got there and its hard to see him turning Ax or 2x into a bluff like this. If there were more draws in his range I could see calling. Turn is probably a bet/fold.

I would have bet the turn hoping to be called by weaker aces. He isn't likely to have AQ which makes your AJ a stronger hand.

Unfortunately I think your line does encourage him to bluff like this and your tight image makes me more suspicious. This is a spot where I'm unsure enough that I'd be looking at how much eye contact he gives (In general more eye contact means a stronger hand; I know some people don't value tells that much but I've found this to be pretty useful), and since he seems willing to talk maybe I'd try to get him to say more. I'm not sure what to think of his AJ comment. Is villain normally talkative in spots like this? Without any extra info I'd fold and hope he wasn't bluffing.

This is weird. and im kind of torn here.

is our AJ good here 1/2 the time against his range?

I hate saying this but Im probably just done with the hand and looking for another spot.

In this sort of situation I'm deciding on turn if I think he is just sucking me in or if he likely has a better hand. A lag villain is going to shove river here a lot, so I'm pretty much either giving up on turn or committing them to calling river.

As played, I'm inclined to give up. The smallish turn bet is neatly sized to setup a river shove that will be hard to fold to, while being so small it's hard to fold on turn. This suggests that villain wants hero to call now and feel committed on river with a good ace. So folding is a good idea. If villain was trying to apply maximum pressure he would have bet more on turn and gave up on river if called, or checked turn and shove river.

Flop bet seems excessively high for a flop like this and you are OOP. $20 - $22 would seem ideal to me. Turn Q seems like a pretty good to barrel 1/2 PSB and probably folding to a raise.

QX doesn't make a whole lot of sense here as if he wanted to be able to ship the river he's prolly bet a big bigger on the turn to make a river ship easier.
But that's giving him credit for thinking about the next street.

Given history with A8 hand I'm calling here.

Really need to know how he's acted previously. Emerald speaking, if they look comfortable (not acting) then they got it. If he's conversationally talking ten hrs comfy. Impossible to say here though.

The A8 hand makes me think that he bluffs smaller and that he perceives his shove as a value bet where he expects to win if called, since his other river all-ins have been made hands.

A weak Qx makes a lot of sense if he thinks he only gets called by a better queen if he makes a significant bet on the the turn, but once he gets a good reaction, he thinks he has the best hand and feels okay with shoving a hand like Q5. (I wouldn't be shocked if he rivered a boat with Q6 or was slowplaying AQ.) He could also be shoving with a hand like AK/AJ/AT which he thinks beats a worse ace. He could also be a weirdo with A6/A2.

River talking is not as relevant since hero induced it with questions. V made a slightly weak hand statement by saying AJ is good. So he is slightly more likely to not be bluffing. Also straight is sarcasm rarely seen when bluffing. If he acts confidently as well, I would fold.

Usually the more talkative and comfortable he appears the less likely he is to be bluffing. The sarcasm is another indicator of strength as a bluffer would not want to induce any emotions and make you want to look him up. As far as the hand, I definitely like the bet/fold line for the turn. The sizing on the flop too is a little large as we are folding out worse hands than our own. Overall it's a pretty tough/weird spot and usually folding will be the best option here. Just my 2 cents.

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Result: I folded and Villain showed AKo. I was expecting either a Q or set or air so I was surprised.

Let the record show that I mentioned this hand as a possibility.

I wouldn't base any decisions on table talk unless you've got a good read. I don't think V gave off any universal tell. I find the best time to get a verbal tell on someone is when you're not in the hand. The same words can mean different things coming from different people.

I played with one guy who would sometimes say "I check my ace" when an ace came on the flop and he didn't have an ace. He would never mix it up and say "I check my ace" when he actually had an ace. Those types of things are really the only verbal tells I trust.

Even people who are great at deciphering table talk (like Dnegs) get it wrong when they're tanking and V is talking.

Also Aj