Super deep, juicy latenight game w. a bunch of $1500 stacks who are playing every hand. Normal opening raise is $15-$25 pf.

V is a young 20's white guy. He is a station that limps ATC if not crazy expensive. Loves to blocker bet post flop. Doesn't know how to size bets.

Hero is an early thirties white guy, wearing jeans and a blazer. Has a tight, winning image. Hasn't showed down many hands.

HH1 V has $600

V opens TT EP for $10, bunch of callers, donk on button makes it $25, everyone calls. 4 way. flop: 982. V donks $25, everyone calls. turn: 4 V bets $40 into $200 and gets a call. Don't remember river but it got checked around and his hand is good

HH2 bunch of limpers, donk makes it $17 in LP, V calls J9 in BB, 5 way. Flop: 872. V donks $20 into $80. Don't remember rest of hand sadly.

HH3 V has $600, Hero has $900, bunch of other big stacks

Some limpers, hero opens AQ to $22, 3 callers including V who limped or was in BB w. QT. Flop QJ2 V donks $30 into $88, hero raises to $130, folds around to V. V calls. Turn: A V checks, Hero bets $175, V calls. River brick. Hero puts V all in for $275, V folds quickly, shows cards.
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OTTH

Hero has $1300, bunch of other players cover.
V has $500
UTG+1 has $275

V raises to $10 UTG, UTG+2 makes it $25 (range is QQ+,AK, maybe JJ), hero looks down at KK and makes it $85, folds around and both call.

($248) Flop: A72

V bets $35, UTG+1 folds, hero calls?

($318) Turn: J

V bets $55, Hero?

Edit: Let me know if these threads are getting too hard to read

I'd just call again on the turn and then decide on the river depending on his betsize whether I call or fold. He's already shown you in the previous hand that he's very sticky with top-pair type hands so I'm not eager to try and bluff him even though from his line it's obvious he has some weak Ax hand.

He's stationy pre, but what about post? From your example HH's, he seems aggro (but bad bet-sizing) with any piece post. Is that accurate? If so, I raise fold/flop all day, but it would be for value, not really a bluff.

AP, we are WA/WB OTT and getting a great price. I call it down.

I don't think you can win this hand without raising somewhere in there. So far his donk behavior has been pretty typical, pot-sweeteners and TP. We haven't seen him donk 2nd or 3rd pair yet, or to bet anything less than TP OTT, which is why you called OTF I suppose. Not many ways you can have him beat; dunno how sticky he is with Axs but that's most of his range I think and you gotta hope he folds at least some of it, eh. I would think about raising about a third of villain's remaining stack either OTF or OTT, but I dunno. This guy is such a mosquito, isn't he? Don't listen to me; I already want to swat the guy and I wasn't even there. Anyway I think turn is a raise or fold.

you already missed your chance to bluff/raise when you didn't raise the flop. now you have to sell AJ or JJ. With that much dead money, you are basically going to have to shove over the $55 turn bet to get him to fold his A.

I don't think that he is bluffing with something like 99 here, because I just don't see him double barreling without an A.

As played, his bets are so small, you are almost getting the right price to call him down and try to spike a K, but I would just muck it.

Keeping it classy

Well played. Nice sizing all around.

Regarding the question at hand, I think this is just one of those perfect storms of cluster**** that work against you and there's no real way to win the hand.

Even though the guy has >200 BB's left, the SPR is <2 so there's not much room to maneuver. This isn't even WA/WB, it's just straight up WB/WB. It sucks that you pretty much know what his cards are but I think the smart move is to just make a ridiculously tight fold and move on.

He would have to have about another $400 (so $900 to start the hand) to make calling the turn justifiable with implied odds, but if he were that deep it's unlikely he would stack off with just a weak Ace anyway.

If you raise the turn, he is probably going to call. And by that point the pot will be so big that he will be pot committed on the river. Your only real shot is to shove the turn repping exactly JJ. Now that I've thought about it a bit more, a shove only needs to work ~40% of the time to be break even and you are never drawing dead if he hero calls you with his AT bull****.

So upon further review, I think I like a shove (though I can be swayed back toward reason and find a fold as well).

K-monster threads are the best... Keep poasting!

Garick has it rite. Call it down with great showdown value hand.

I'm in the minority here. I fold flop. When an A hits the flop and a predictable player leads, I tend to just muck my kings. Call flop, then gotta call turn and pay off river, which means we're going to drop another $200 in this hand and pretty much know we were beat the whole way. V prob has a weak A. Frustrating but, I'm just mucking flop. Seems tight but I don't want to call turn and river.

Villain's sizing has been small in every hand, including when he had an overpair on 98xdd. Not like villain knows it, but this is literally THE quintessential dry flop and the turn doesn't change much, so I'm not heavily discounting nutted hands. I'm not rock certain that he folds a weak A (especially after he tilt-mucked faceup a hand that went awry to you not too long ago), and we beat everything else.

Don't get me wrong, he DOES usually have TPMK-, he DOES usually find a fold with it somewhere, and the way to exploit these blocking bettors IS to do a whole lot of raising, but a combination of his unknown station levels and our ambiguous dynamic makes me very queezy about going to war in this particular hand.

... and, ya know, not to mention that calling down is +EV, so let's just go ahead and do that instead.

There's an argument for this. Getting all aggro against a fish with an ace doesn't always work out all that well. But, I don't think hero can rule out a donk-bluff. Fish see that as an effective counter-measure against someone who frequently cbets. Hard not to at least call the donk and see what he does OTT.

Same basic concept applies if a villain like this checks an ace-high flop. High likelihood of check-raise coming. Which, is also kind of a reason to call the flop bet.

hate raise/folding, as you said, we are in a WA/WB behind situation. do you wanna go for three streets of value or what?

AP, wouldn´t try to get this type to fold top pair, yes, he folded QT, but that wasn´t top pair anymore by the river. i guess although getting a ridicolous price fold turn, his small sizings doesnt really mean weakness imo as shown in first hand, and it´s not like he is bluffing on this board after preflop action much, probably very very rarely, esp with that sizing. . his most likely hand is a decent ace imo, and he´s just not folding that anymore in a pot that bloated i think. he may, but this bluff has to work quite often to be successful.

Grunch

Title says it all. Bluff raise v station = hell no.

$200 is pretty much the worst case scenario for him making bets that are small enough that we feel priced into calling. I think when you add it all up, the median scenario for him betting all three streets is more like $170, and once you consider that he doesn't by any stretch of the imagination always bet all 3 streets, the mean is much lower.

Of course, he might bet large with a worse hand sometimes, forcing us into a mistake, though I think that's pretty rare and it's not exactly like he's immune to making big mistakes against us.

But even if it all averages out to us paying him $175 in these situations, he needs to have a worse hand less than 30% of the time for us to break even on a call here. I think it's very easy to scrounge up that number of combos of split pairs, 7x and pure bluffs.

The answer to the question is no.

Trying to get into the habit of making my decisions based on My/Opponents range.

Counted 50something combos of AXs, A9-AJ hands he can have.

Counted 12 middle pairs and 6 suited connectors that honestly don't make much sense so decided to discount by 75% =~5combos we are ahead of

Thought long hard about bluff raising here but I took a decent amount of time counting combos and deliberating, decided V might see my timing as a tell, cursed myself for not raising the flop.

I don't even need to read the hh since the title says it all.

Answer is no

Based on how horribly he played the QT hand, I'm never trying to get this guy to fold top pair.