Hero (Covers) Has been playing LAG, just sat back down at the table and everyone was happy to see me saying now we have a real table. I have no history with villains.

V1 (375) Has been playing TAG, doesn't really raise much, kind of an ABC player.
He just had a hand where he raised 5$ pre someone rr to $15 flop 4/q/k OR made it 35, he raised to 70, then jammed OTT. I think he had a set of 4's.

V2 (375) He just left the table when I sat down, and just came back. New player, older guy, looks TAG wearing his grey jacket and his sunglasses not saying a word. He comes back and straddles for $5 from the CO.

V2 straddles from CO for $5, 2 callers, V1 UTG+2 calls 5, Hero calls 5 in MP with 57, V2 completes.



Flop (25)
456

V1 bets $20, Hero call V2 calls.

Here I almost know for a fact that V1 has a 2p here, also its a very wet board and I can bluff him off most scare cards.

V2 I'm not sure about him, I don't put him on a FD, I put him on more of a hand that has a 7 or an 8.

Turn (85)
4567

V1 checks, Hero bets 60, V2 calls, V1 tanks and tanks and finally folds.

The reason I bet this card, is its perfect to stab at. It completes straights, flushes, everything. I know I could've gotten V1 out, and i expected V2 to fold as well, but surprisingly he calls.

I put him on the straight now and I'm planning to fire any 4th club, and check any brick

River (205)
4567 5

Hero Bets $115, V2 waits for a second then shoves for ~295 Hero pukes...

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

I think I play it the same way

And I'm calling this, but I'm just a nub rec player...

Do you think he'll check his straddle with 66 or 77?

I think it's much more likely he has something like A7x

You're repping the straight or flush on the turn and he prob thinks his rivered flush is good and you're just donking off. More importantly, you're not repping a set or two pair on the turn, so that river doesn't help you in his mind. I can't see him just calling on the flop with 66 (or 77 for that matter, but you said he's TAG, so w/e).

I suppose he possibly could've just called on the turn with a flush and has the 3 or 8 in his hand, but I feel you have to call this. But I think the A7x hand is more likely.

Literally...the best worst river card. At first, you see it dealt and feel great. When you realize thats its actually a horrid card, i think you should b/f here. Worse hands are liable to call. But, I know we filled, but we only really beat the Ac and 44. Do you think he's shoving over a strong bet here with theAc with a straight-flush draw on a paired board? Prolly not. A 1/2 fish prolly only calls here a majority of the time. Every other hand that he shoves over a bet with is beating us. It would be a sick fold, cause we're strong. In-game there's times i call this....but id prolly be wrong though. It's weird....i feel like i analyze hands better sometimes when i see it typed out rather than when im at the table. We get more time to think about them.

I think it might be a fold. I had typed up why I thought it was a call but then i changed my mind. Given that he called the flop and turn he is a lot more likely to have mediumish cards that were straight draws OTF and straights OTT. So he's a little more likely to have straight flushes than usual given the way the hand played out.

While i think he sometimes does this with the Ac, there aren't all that many times he actually has it given that he probably folded most of his bare Ac hands on the flop and I think usually AcXc raises the turn.

Definitely a weird spot. And I probably shrug and call in real time and then shrug when he shows me 3c4d or whatever.

More

Plenty of bad live players (and straddlers tend be bad in my experience so I tick one box on the bad-player checklist) will do this with Ax suited and think they're good. I can't fold here...

I think there's a chance that he does this with the bare A as he may perceive our turn bet as a straight/lower flush and he thinks he's raising for value here. 44/56 are also possibilities and align with his bet flop-call turn-raise river line. I probably pay him off unless I have a ton of history with the guy and know for a fact that only has the nuts here.

What do you need here like 35% or something? I think you've got a math call albeit an unhappy one...that's a super fun river card.

We just don't know enough about V2 to justify thinking he's over and above the normal 1/2 live player which puts Ac in his range. The Ac should give us the odds to call.

Since he bet the flop there aren't all that many Ac combos in the villains range.

Because of the FD OTF, I feel you really should be folding to the original $20 bet. I'm surprised more people aren't saying the same.

With that being said, I like your turn bet. Your 2pair has little value at this point, and it's a good card to bluff. On the river I think you have to call. 66 is realistically the only hand that beats you. (you have two of the 7's and three of the 5's accounted for, and if he has A3/8 then so be it)

V2 did not bet the flop, he called behind Hero.

Case 7 and 6 combos of 66 beat you (beast mark ?). Many flushes lose. I presume you've got a horror story from the cooler to report. But you know the maths, 2:1, (Vil has and loses with 54, 44, 56, J+) compel a call here.

exactly. he can't have a many Acx combos because he called a flop bet.

Why commit to the $60 raise on turn? You arent' heavily invested at that stage and could get a read on V2 strength by his action and then decide. Now you're deeper in and a river that needs a low % hero call to win the pot. Far too many bad cards vs my hold cards by the river.

Now, i'm taking a river fold on the all in that i put myself into. If it's a bad fold, nice reraise V2

Nobody like a check call river? You only have $85 invested. Saves money when beat and you feel you have to call a hand too strong to fold (as is probably the case here), but flip side leaves money on table when you are ahead.

It induces a semi bluff from worse hands that might think they can rep better now you've shown weakness or if their hand is good it doesn't bloat the pot. Perhaps a bit nitty, not sure, haven't run the numbers.

Here as played with a shove like that you are beat (or he thinks he's good) more often than not I find. It's not like it's a monster pot he feels he has to take a stab at as he also hasn't put too much of his stack in to this point.

Check/calling this river is losing so much $$$$ it's insane.

Am I the only one who thinks this is an easy call?

V is spewing with the A so often it's not funny.

Yeah agree, ran some quick numbers.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 18 0.00 { 7s5s }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { 99-88, 33, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, Ac3d, Ac3h, Ac3s }

His range is pretty tight by the river and super strong. I think the bet is good on reflection and now it's a fold.

Villain, if TAG as suspected. pf bulk of range suited connectors and small pairs some smaller braodway combos. Flop Unlikely to have 2 pair or set as didn't raise (neither did hero which I would). Turn range is heavily weighted to a straight with redraw to A hi flush nut flush perhaps or pairs that have made a straight and have redraw to str8 flush and A hi flush. You don't beat much other than a bluff unless he played a flush set or smaller 2 pair weird.

doesnt seem like it. what hands is he going to call with that he won't bet himself? Kc?

villain is older TAG. you think he's calling a river bet with a straight here?

i think check/calling is the best play here, and im not sure it's even close. if villain has a worse boat, he'll bet. if he has Ac, he'll bet. and that's all we beat. we lose to a few boats, and lose to the straight flush. and there aren't really a whole lot of other hands that would want to play when 4 to a straight flush/paired board comes out.

check-call all day.

as played, fold.

really? do you play live poker? raising 54 would be spew for this guy imo.

1. Yes
2. Also, yes.
3. Your stereotypical old nit also doesn't straddle from the cutoff. Therefore, in my assumption, this isn't your standard old rocky nit. He's a new player hero hasn't seen play much and is straddling the CO then calling a flop bet and a turn bet on a wet straight and flush type board. That doesn't automatically mean he's got the stone cold nuts on the river.

It's $175 to win $435. I'm calling. nh if he's got the SF or case 7s.

stone cold nuts? you lose to 4th nuts...on a sick wet board that even bad players would realize is trouble. let alone to someone who seems remotely competent. i wasnt saying villlain is old nit. im saying his description keeps him out of the category of players who would consider raising A like you suggested.

For those saying c/c the river, that's a horrible idea, it's 1/2 people are showdown monkeys and we lose so much value IMO.

Hand 0: 16.129% 14.52% 01.61% 9 1.00 { 7s5s }
Hand 1: 83.871% 82.26% 01.61% 51 1.00 { 8c8d, 8c8h, 8c8s, 77-44, 3c3d, 3c3h, 3c3s, Ac8c, Ac3c, Kc8c, Kc3c, Qc8c, Qc3c, Jc8c, Jc3c, Tc8c, Tc3c, 9c8c, 9c3c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 75s, 65s, 54s, 4c3c, 8c7d, 8c7h, 8c7s, 8c6d, 8c6h, 8c6s, 8c5d, 8c5h, 8c5s, 8c4d, 8c4h, 8c4s, 8c3d, 8c3h, 8c3s, 8d3c, 8h3c, 8s3c, 75o, 7d3c, 7h3c, 7s3c, 65o, 6d3c, 6h3c, 6s3c, 54o, 5d3c, 5h3c, 5s3c, 4d3c, 4h3c, 4s3c, 3c2d, 3c2h, 3c2s }

i think you're just value towning yourself. (this range includes all boats and reasonable straight flush hands.) i did not include Ac hands, as i don't think he will call with them. but if you add them in...you still aren't over 50%. making your value bet a leak.

In your previous post, you specifically bolded "older guy, looks TAG wearing his grey jacket and his sunglasses not saying a word", I assumed because you were trying to paint him as an old nit. Forgive me if that wasn't a reasonable assumption.

Here's a range that I think V can have after he shoves the river. Bear in mind, v was the straddler and the width of his range going into the river is highly dependent upon how you want to classify him:
- A + X/3-8o
- All the boats: 45, 56, 57, 77, 66, 44 (even though I believe 44, 66 would have raised before the river, for the sake of argument I'll leave them here)
- Hands including the 3 or 8 which I don't think include a whole lot, particularly the 8 i.e. he's never calling the flop bet with 8J.

Am I way off here?