Reads: Villain is new, has been active, may be LAG but may just be getting hands. Haven't seen a single showdown from him yet.

Preflop, I have $190 to start the hand. UTG+1 raises to $8, 3 callers, I call in the SB with AQ. Flop comes Q95. Pot is $40 and I have $182, I feel like I'm committed to this hand now. Checks to UTG+1 who bets $10, villain, who has about $150, calls, I raise to $40, villain calls. Turn is a horrible K. Can I do anything but c/f? Still commit in case QJ or Q10 is in villain's range?

[/QUOTE] Pot is $40 and I have $182, I feel like I'm committed to this hand now. [/QUOTE]


really?? commited after putting in 4% of your stack. Probably not a good strategy.

sorry misclicked the quote. but as stated above. Never consider yourself commited after putting in 4% of your stack.

Huh? The stacks are only about 4.5 times the size of the pot. What's important is the stack size compared to the pot size. I can get a player w/ AQ off, if they are like you and not willing to stack off. I'm also ahead of KQ and QJ. Finally, I need to protect my hand against J10.

As played though, my hand must look kinda weak to villain now right? I'd certainly keep firing w/ a set. But would villain check back or bet QJ or Q10 here? Again, can I do anything but c/f?

i wouldn't feel committed here. depending on the villain, we can definitely release TPTK if raised.

any reason you decided not to lead this flop? i'm leading $30 here for value most of the time, because against most villains we can get multiple streets of value from their Qx and straight draws. by check/raising flop, we capture their flop calls, but fold out most of the range we are looking to get value from way too often. a c/r here basically reps a set.

as played, raise more OTF. as played OTF, shove turn.

I decided not to bet flop because I figured a bet was likely from at least one player (for example, the PFR if he has like JJ here). And I decided I was committed because the SPR is 4.5, and KQ may chose to stack off, and I may win the whole pot by getting AQ off a chop.

Shove turn, really? Keep in mind villain has more than a pot sized bet left. I went from absolutely crushing villains range do being 50% at best. KQ and J10 were hands that made up a large portion of his range, in my mind.

But again, the reason I'm posting this is he could still possibly have a weaker Q.

The title says AQo, instead of AQs?

Anyway, K on turn was definitely bad card for us (if he called flop with KQ, J10, 55, 99, KK+), only thing we're beating is QJ. Id say b/f turn, if called probably make a thin value bet on the river.

With 3 players already calling the initial raise I think your biggest mistake was not 3 betting pre, and to a healthy amount at that. Something like $32-$40 total.

I don't mind your flop play. His $10 flop bet is really odd to me though.

I think he bets bigger with a semi-bluff if he has 10J.
I think he bets bigger to protect with KQ and JQ too.

Leads me to think he has a set with a bet call.

So as played, I would c/f turn. If he has AQ or QJ, he might check it down.

That K is just about the worst card to appear as it brings KQ for 2pr and gutshots KJ & KT, it gives JT the nuts (if JT makes the nuts in a multiway pot someone has it a lot).

Also we need to be thinking about WTF he smooth calls the flop lead with and then smooth calls your c/r with. Regardles, there is lttle value to be had on this turn so I think I c/f.

I'm also in the camp that I would not feel committed here at all.

I mean I know SPR is 4.5, but we're not even the preflop raiser and there's 4 other players in the hand.

I prefer c/c and depending on the ensuing action and number of callers, leading a safe turn.

If you felt committed however, then why not lead and try to build the pot? And BTW, would you still feel committed if you donked and UTG+1 raised you?

Or, why not c/r bigger in order to tie yourself to the pot?

As played, I puke c/f turn. You can't beat KQ anymore and JT got there. There weren't many draws otherwise for villain to chase and you still have to worry about sets/2P.

Lastly, I'm in favour of a 3bet pre to try to take it down right away. Lots of dead money out there.

If you shove turn, you only fold out worse and get called by better.

Playing from the small blind is always hard. I expect to lose money in small blind that I make up in late position. So I don't mind the call. As you've just called you've also disguised the strength of your hand.

Your $40 check raise was not nearly enough to push draws off and I'll show you why
Pot $26 pf
Flop - Betting $10 x 2,
Pot is $46 when you decide to raise
Raise $40
Pot is now $86
Villains only needs to call $30 to win $90. 3 to 1. Plus we need to consider implied. There's still 2 streets to bet meaning if they hit they are playing for stacks.

Same scenario but now you check raise $70
Villains need to call $60 to win $116. This isn't even 2 to 1. These are not the right odds to chase. Plus with the bigger bet you would be pot committing yourself which is what you claimed you felt. On flop you definitely weren't pot committed.

Pot is $40 and I have $182, I feel like I'm committed to this hand now. [/QUOTE]


really?? commited after putting in 4% of your stack. Probably not a good strategy.[/QUOTE]

ever hear of SPR?

our SPR is around 4.5, saying we dont have to be committed is crazy, we flop TPTK, also we can use judgement on the turn, we reevaluate, but we can commit to the flop.

I'm a bit confused on the action. There are two villains? UTG+1 and a villain in MP?

I c/f here.. Were behind most of the time if were facing a bet. Yes, we beat QJ/Q10 (assuming its in villains preflop calling range) However-- I think we are giving villain too much credit if he is going to shove here with QJ or Q10. If he has QJ/Q10 hes probably terrified of the King and checking the turn. You could even go for a small value bet on a brick river if he checks to you.

Great replies so far. I still disagree that we're not committed. I think we can get all in profitably, we have 40% against a range of KK+,99,33,AQs,KQs,AQo,KQo. Also, J10 may make a bad call w/ the wrong odds.

On the flop, best raise amount size? I decided to raise only to $40 because I'll still have two streets to get all in, which shouldn't be that hard (I'll have $140 left, pot will be $120). And the only possible draw to protect against is J10, which is only 16% to hit on the turn. If villain actually had J10 this hand, I got him to make a mistake since he thought he had implied odds, but I c/folded the turn and didn't pay him off. Also, do you guys think KJ is correct to call a $40 flop raise, assuming I stack off on a 10 turn?

Does the idea of "donking is bad" not apply when many players see the flop? I guess that's why I instant checked the flop (woulda also checked if flop came Q Q 5). Does bet > c/r here?

i'm not sure if this adds up to me as a rationale for choose your raise sizing. basically we want villains to call as much as they are willing to while having incorrect pot odds. so while your raise size may have caused a player with JT to make a mistake by calling without having the pot odds to do so, you are costing yourself money if villain would have called more and thus made a bigger mistake. typically i think with the way the flop action went and with 2 villains in we can raise more and expect to get calls from draws.

another reason i raise more OTF is because if UTG+1 calls, villain's odds to call have now improved. we want to make sure that if he overcalls, he's getting the poorest odds that he will still call with. with $40 in the pot, villain's $10, your raise to $40, and let's say UTG+1 called, now villain's looking at calling $30 into a $130 pot, so he only needs 19% equity for a break even call. so his mistake is only small if he actually has 16% equity, or whatever. obviously if he has a gutter or lower-equity hand he is making a larger mistake. but i think we can get villains to make bigger mistakes here.

lastly i think KJ, 67, 78 are all in there as well as JT.

i wouldn't follow that rule. i think donking here is preferable and i will donk AQ on a Q Q 5 board a reasonably high percentage of the time, depending on numerous factors. often i will also check/call that flop.

i guess your thinking is probably that we have the best hand here much of the time, and donking into multiple opponents seems overly strong. however, i find that for some reason 1/2 players will often not believe you when you donk a multi-way flop and still call with their drawing hands. at the same time, they are unlikely to bet their draws so we often get checks around unless someone made TP or something similar. so we can get them to call in spot they would check if checked to. and TP hands that bet if checked to will also call if we bet. and leading is better than c/r because by c/r'ing we fold out all the hands we want to get value from, which otherwise we may be able to get multiple streets of value from them by taking a b/b/b line, or a b/b/c line depending on what peels, etc. we would have to get tons of immediate value from the money villains have already put in to make c/r'ing more +EV than leading. because nothing we beat is calling our c/r.

another benefit to leading i forgot to mention before.. we get better visibility of hands that beat us like sets, because they probably raise us. it's similar to the reason people recommend raising KQ from up front because we expect to get 3bet by AK, QQ, and KK, which are hands that we have huge RIO on, and we can fold pre and give no further value. in this hand, if we check, a player with a set bets and we call, his range to us still includes all sorts of Qx, maybe even TT, JJ. if we lead and get raised, for most villains we can narrow their range to 2pr+ probably. so we get reverse value pwnd less often.