Why woudl you want to block him from betting more? You're a big favorite and there is already money in teh pot. If he wants to bet huge, you should let him.

You think hero is a big favorite. I disagree. I want the small amount he might call with a worse hand. I'd rather face a raise and know I can fold than call a big bet.

Range please?

Johnny and I have agreed on this

QQ+,TT,AQs+,KJs+,AhJh,AhTh,AQo+,KQo

We're 58% - bet 120 to win 300....that's good right? Money is good?

You think he'll call 120 a significantly less % of the time than he'll call 90 after the hearts bricked?

If it makes you feel better, I would agree with your smaller bet if the river was a heart. Not because I'm afraid of the heart, but because villain might be, and I still want him to call with worse.

yeah, i'll agree that would be close to Vs range on the river, but that isnt Vs calling range on the river


i highly doubt he calls any bet with his missed draws. all the Qx pairs- are probably a 50/50 proposition.

This is why you didn't attack Johnny for advocating a check/call.

QQ+,TT, AQs+, AhJh, AhTh (maybe), AQo+
This is a loose/passive player who almost never raises pre. If we bet big on the river, he's folding worse, but he might make a crying call to a smaller bet with a pair or AQ.

Absolutely.

his range on the river vs his calling range on the river....doesn't matter. We're a favorite against that range, so betting into it without any further information is fine.

Even if he calls with only hands that beat us, the money in the pot makes it +EV.

Do you realize that we're an even bigger favorite against that range?

if the guy is calling, he's calling. Sure with infinite stacks, we could find some number where a call becomes a fold. But I'll bet one and a half of my own lungs that nobody at 1/2 has that threshold at less than 75% of the pot.

Maybe some mind games here, but we have to show first if V checks back River .. do we really want him to know we were that timid (or trappy) with AK here? V betting range may tighten up in future hands due to this? Or is chips now better than chips later?

Probably a little too deep for most 1/2, but I KNOW that it would be noted at my regular table that I checked AK against that board OTR .. and they may ask if I'm feeling well today!! How many V are really going to fire 3 bullets at that board without Kx/Qx? And I would presume that he is calling bets with basically the same range, if not wider as a bluff catcher.

Does V bet out with 88 more than he calls with 88 as a bluff catcher? GL

I promise you they do. They see $100+ go into that pot, and they are not calling with second pair or less. We are lucky if they call for $90 or less.

Results:

Control tower here in Valuetown has noticed an inbound aircraft. Javanewt, we have you on radar. You are not yet cleared for landing.

You're getting there though. Stay with me now....we'll guide you in

I agree, villain's calling frequency with worse hands is low. It might be 10% of the time total. That's fine, we should still bet because of the money in the pot.

So if his calling frequency is so very low, then even if it changes significantly with bet size, we're only talking about fractions of percentage points. WE could do the math out but we'll probably find that if he calls $90 with worse 10% of the time, and calls $120 with worse 8.1653% of the time (guessstimates)...you should still make the bigger bet. And I would still argue that there really is no difference. A calling hand is a calling hand as far as V is concerned.

I still would've bet ~$60 for fat value here. Betting $120 and praying he's in the mood to bluff-catch is pretty wild, unless we've shown up with a lot of bluffs and/or tilted the table.

We want to target particular parts of his range with our bets. $120 targets... well, very little. It basically dares the villain to put us on a busted flush. That'll work on select villains. I don't see anything in the description to make me want to try it here.

$90 targets KJ/K10. Those are unlikely to be in his preflop raising range, though.

$60 targets AQ and JJ. I think AQ is a lot more likely than JJ, since I think JJ shuts down against the two overcards on the turn.

I also think $60 looks bluffier, since it's a stepwise increase over the previous betting amounts. I find that when 1/2 villains bet $10 on the flop, then $20 and $30 on the turn river, it's often air. It's an autopilot number, and looks fishier. And that's a good thing, since we don't think this guy is going to bluff-raise with busted draws.

As for the "MEMEMEMEMEME" IDWH debate that's occurred (again) over the last 3 pages of the thread. ...Dude, get a therapist and work out your mommy issues. The routine is getting tired fast.

no, the second equation isn't right. How are you getting $40 of EV when he folds? Our EV comes from the pot, but you haven't mentioned that anywhere in your equation.

Your second equation should be -EV because you're getting called by better more often than you're getting called by worse and it's neutral when he folds.

That -EV is offset by realizing your equity in the pot. That's why you bet. To win the pot.

That was some cute math, but the concept here is pretty simple.

We're a 60/40 (ish) favorite against the villain's range that gets to the river.

We win the pot 60% of the time (180 * .6 = $108), we lose our bet 40% of the time. (-120 * .40 = -48) (Net EV+$60) And that's if the villain NEVER calls with a worse hand. If he does sometimes....gravy.

He'd have to call a $120 bet with a frequencly less than 3/4 of that with which he calls $90 for the smaller bet to be better. If he's calling, he's calling. Go for max value.

Who is this jackass? IDWH, you are ruining otherwise interesting hand discussions. When you do have something of value to add, you usually mask it with your ****ty attitude, arrogance, and insults.

Knock it off.

It's a tough job changing hearts and minds. Just say "thank you" and be on your way.

lol. go jump in a lake, Sparky. You're not winning either with your attitude. We've got lots of better players than you on these boards if we're looking for "lessons."