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1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? 1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call?

05-19-2014 , 11:51 AM
Hero UTG+3 ($300): Playing TAG and solid. Mid 20s only showing down winners. I did get caught 3-barrelling AK high and got called down when I shoved my remaining $65 when I was short-stacked and binked a King on the river.

Villian UTG +2 ($150): 30s, white guy who seems to playing pretty standard. He did triple-barrell with AK in one pot and got called down and lost - but that was over an hour or so before this hand.

folded to Villian who makes it $15. Hero has AJ and I just call. One other LAG guy in MP calls ($220 behind), and it's 3 to the flop:

Flop ($48): JT6

Villian leads for $20. I call. MP calls.

Turn ($108): J

Villian leads for $35. At this point he has $80 behind. I figure I'm massively ahead at this point and he could very well be barrelling so I want to give him the chance to ship the river to get his stack rather than raise him and blow MP guy off the hand as well as lose my chance at his remaining $80 especially when the top pair pairs, I'm playing tight, and it's going to be extremely obvious I have a Jack if I raise. Is this wrong thinking?

I just call, MP snap folds.

River ($178): Q

Villian snap shoves. Hero? Can I ever fold here??
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-19-2014 , 12:01 PM
You got what you wanted, now call. Never folding here.
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-19-2014 , 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltn'noob
You got what you wanted, now call. Never folding here.
Exactly. Why is this is a scare card? QQ, 89, and QJ make up such a small percentage of their potential range (do you think V will open with 89s or QJs/os?) that you shouldn't even be thinking about folding this. I count 3 combos of QQ and 1 combo of QJ suited in their open range. Otherwise their open range probably includes 1010, KJ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AJ, A10s, KQ...Make the call already...
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-19-2014 , 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltn'noob
You got what you wanted, now call. Never folding here.

+1. Never folding with this SPR when heading to the river.

If you are gonna fold to every potenial scarecard in the deck OP, you will be much better off raising/getting it in on the turn, rather than give villain the opportunity to bluff you out on a potenial scarecard on the river.

Also, if stacks were deeper i want us to raise the turn a majority of the times- even if it can turn our hand face up. People can level themself into lots of stuff, and you want to make sure you get all villains money if he also happens to have a jack.
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-19-2014 , 12:13 PM
Not folding.

We lose to AK (most likely) QQ/QJ/JT. We beat AA/KK/AQ/KJ.
And we are getting 3:1.
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-19-2014 , 12:15 PM
I'm not sure I love pre-flop. ABC V is opening to $15 from EP with a $150 stack. Calling with AJs from EP for 10% of effective stacks is just pretty meh. A lot of factors could make this more of a call - if we we're deeper stacked (can get away from dominated Ax, win a lot with monsters) if we have much better position (CO/BTN and likely to close action post-flop, control the pot size to our liking, get to see what everyone does before we must act).

So pre is probably a fold, though playing isn't horrible or anything.

Correct, you're never folding. I think your post-flop line is fine. Now call. And stop posting threads asking things like "Can I ever fold here??" That really, really biases the responses. You're looking for a post-flop line check, not a justification for folding (or calling).
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-19-2014 , 12:18 PM
Now that I look back, villain's turn bet is so puny it looks like he's trying to set a price for his draw, so I'm raising most of the time.

And +1 to what Willy said, good stuff there.
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-19-2014 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
I'm not sure I love pre-flop. ABC V is opening to $15 from EP with a $150 stack. Calling with AJs from EP for 10% of effective stacks is just pretty meh. A lot of factors could make this more of a call - if we we're deeper stacked (can get away from dominated Ax, win a lot with monsters) if we have much better position (CO/BTN and likely to close action post-flop, control the pot size to our liking, get to see what everyone does before we must act).

So pre is probably a fold, though playing isn't horrible or anything.

Correct, you're never folding. I think your post-flop line is fine. Now call. And stop posting threads asking things like "Can I ever fold here??" That really, really biases the responses. You're looking for a post-flop line check, not a justification for folding (or calling).
I was actually thinking in my mind this guy had AK when he raised $15 pre so I was prepared to get away from an A-high board on the turn. When he made the weak turn bet I was very confident he had AK, and when I saw the Q and he shoved so fast I just thought he had to have it - knowing he must know I had a Jack at this point and is never getting me to fold (probably giving him too much credit?).

I reluctantly called and said "AK is good" and he had AK. I was just so sure of it and felt like I was burning away $80. I know in the long term and +EV and all that I have to call every time, but it felt like I was just donating him my money at that point.
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-19-2014 , 01:39 PM
River is a snap call. Theres really nothing to think about....you flatted the turn waiting for him to shove the river and he shoved the river.

On both the flop and turn though, I could really find a raise. When he fired the $20 on the flop, and you had the guy behind you, on a straight draw heavy flop (AK, KQ, 89), Im really considering a raise here. You will likely not scare away hands like KJ that you want to stay in, but will start getting the draws to pay. Now, as played on the flop, going to the turn, I agree with the above poster who said he was trying to set a price- kind of like a blocker bet. He interpreted you as passive, so thought if he fired $35 you would just flat, keeping him in the hand. Shove it in.
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote
05-23-2014 , 12:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Havax
I was actually thinking in my mind this guy had AK when he raised $15 pre.

I reluctantly called and said "AK is good" and he had AK. I was just so sure of it and felt like I was burning away $80. I know in the long term and +EV and all that I have to call every time, but it felt like I was just donating him my money at that point.
Trust your gut.

That being said make sure you're not falling in to the trap of always thinking someone has AK.

It's a pretty standard call.
1/2 AJ turn trips, river scare card - must call? Quote

      
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