1/2/5 JT - Do You Go For River Value? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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1/2/5 JT - Do You Go For River Value?

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01-04-2021 , 11:51 AM

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

1/2/5, $300 effective with BB, $550 effective with UTG. BB is passive and pretty in between loose and tight, probably leans slightly more towards loose passive, UTG is bad TAG. Hero is seen as TAG and on the nittier side.

OTTH

Hero opens OTB J

$25 and BB and UTG straddle call.

Flop ($76): J

. X to hero who bets $25 and both villains call.

Turn ($151): K

. X around.

River ($151): 7

. X to hero. Hero? What is the worst hand that you're betting here?

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01-04-2021 , 12:02 PM

samo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 4,252

QJ would be the bottom of my thin value range.

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01-04-2021 , 12:03 PM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,601

Def betting the river for ~$40. Lots of disbelieving pocket pairs and 8x type hands can call. You're losing to sets, floating AK, KJ, QJ, AJ, and that's about it.

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01-04-2021 , 12:43 PM

twitcherroo

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,499

I agree a smallish b/f OTR is probably appropriate, though a check back isn’t much worse. I probably bet turn though and then check back river if called OTT.

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01-04-2021 , 02:42 PM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,601

Turn bet gets more value from club draws / straight draws / floats.

River bet gets more value from smaller pairs. We'd need to know more about his preflight ranges to decide which is better here. In a vacuum its probably close.

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01-04-2021 , 02:50 PM

sdfsgf

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 667

In position on a moderately connected board I'd rather bet the turn smallish then check back river (obviously comfortably folding if some draw completes and he donks the river).

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01-04-2021 , 03:19 PM

Balerion1

adept

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 1,056

I'd rather bet the turn n get value from T9 (although we block it), some 8x that we likely picked up with the 1/3rd flop bet, some 55-77, maybe even A4, 54s etc.

AP though, if bb and the bad tag are always betting a better hand for value by the time we get to the river (after our turn check back) I can see merits to b/f half pot on the river.

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01-04-2021 , 04:58 PM

snowman

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,753

I would bet $70 here

with J 10

J9 I check back

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01-04-2021 , 05:47 PM

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

What are we targeting otr?

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01-04-2021 , 05:53 PM

#10

ProRailbird

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,292

I agree with betting turn and checking river especially because we're probably going to be cbetting our AK/KQ/KTs type hands on the flop and then continuing again on the K turn so just betting flop and turn with our strong pairs seems like the play.

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01-05-2021 , 03:36 PM

#11

snowman

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,753

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixsevenoff

What are we targeting otr?

we have to think the Tag would have bet river with a K or KJ or AJ or even QJ the passive BB could have checked these twice but you think would bet a set

so we are targeting a smaller pair J9 108 98 A8 K8 86 97
or trying to get another J10 to fold

UTG straddle could have anything with just a call pre even A4

betting turn charges draws but then if bad tag bluffs missed river big what are you doing ?

I don't mind checking turn given V desc but against different lineup might prefer turn bet

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01-05-2021 , 03:51 PM

#12

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

I'd fold because he's never value betting a worse hand and should have very few bluffs

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01-05-2021 , 04:25 PM

#13

snowman

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,753

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixsevenoff

I'd fold because he's never value betting a worse hand and should have very few bluffs

so based on this thought why didn't you bet turn ?

if you want 2 streets of value more likely to get paid by worse

turn targets draws
river targets all else

if both V's here are able to process and use the info that your a Tag then
doesn't turn bet make more sense
as worse unlikely to pay off river?

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01-05-2021 , 04:35 PM

#14

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowman

I think a river bet looks more fos after a turn check. I think there are valid arguments for betting the turn, including an A/Q river won't allow us to value bet... We block the only straight draw that'll call the turn, and there really shouldn't be many club draws ott, and we're losing to two of them and chopping with one.

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01-05-2021 , 06:57 PM

#15

feel wrath

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 30,233

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixsevenoff

as the PFR, the bet flop, check turn, bet river line is ALWAYS value on the river from a hand that the PFR doesn't think can get 3 streets of value from. So against thinking villains, I think betting the turn should make more $$ over the long run...particularly here with two villains

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01-05-2021 , 07:09 PM

#16

twitcherroo

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,499

Quote:

Originally Posted by feel wrath

This human is correct.

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01-06-2021 , 10:38 AM

#17

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

In order to think that deeply, you pretty much have to be a winning player, and neither of these guys are.

It does beg the question though, versus better thinking opponents what are we getting value from when we bet the turn?

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01-06-2021 , 08:26 PM

#18

feel wrath

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 30,233

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixsevenoff

non believing pocket pairs or worst jacks that think you might be double barrelling with air/something worse

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01-07-2021 , 12:10 AM

#19

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

Solvers don't do multi-way pots, but I highly doubt any worse pairs call or any worse jacks exist in equilibrium. Then again, this spot doesn't exist in equilibrium nor does it exist versus good thinking players.

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