Hero (CO, $1.3k): Aggressive winning image, kind of been running the table over a bit.

Villain (HJ, $450): Young asian who I've played with a few times. I'd image his VPIP/PFR are pretty close. He's not super aggressive but I've seen him triple barrel bluff a couple of times in the past. Been playing tight tonight.

Meta: he moved to my direct right maybe an hour ago in order, I assume, to get position on a weaker player that had over $1k in front of him but had recently left the game. I had ramped up my aggression against villain recently. Last orbit I bet/3bet on a Q55r board on the button after we both called a pfr. He folded and asks if I had it, I mucked and said nah. Hadn't 3net him yet I don't think


6 or 7 handed, There is a $5 button straddle. Folds to villain who asks how much button has left ($60ish) and then raises to $12, I make it $32 with AKo, btn fold, villain calls.

Flop (Pot $65 - rake)
K 9 8

villain checks, I bet $45, villain check/raises to $115 rather quickly, I tank call

Turn (Pot $295)
J

check, hero? Villain has about $300 back. I have the A btw


Not sure how wide his preflop opening range is here, probably not too wide given shortstack button but i discounted 99+/AQ+. He would have raised more with those hands. I think he's calling with a lot of his opening range which is why I 3bet on the smaller side.

What kind of range do you give villain on the flop and turn? Is a turn shove just value-owning myself?

I would check and then call the river if he bets, check it back if he doesnt but i prefer to play it safe in these spots so not sure if thats the best approach. The fact that he asked how much the short stack had weights his range heavily toward pocket pairs or ak/other strong hands imo. Do you think there's any chance he would flat AA pre?

TJdd, JQdd, QTdd all make that play I think. flopped 999 and 888 do as well. AK fits him well too. I peel one here looking for a smaller pot as we're probably not great against his range at the minute. if there's value there it's thin. say you bet 200 and he shoves. are you really stacking off with 1 pair? you're getting 2-1 on your call. dangerous.

I did a terrible job of ranging him during the hand once I got check/raised on the flop. My thinking went along the lines of well, of course he could have 88/99 but it's hard to flop sets and I don't think he ever has AA given pf open size and stack sizes so he's probably making a move or semi-bluffing but I didn't really think about different combos he could have. I tanked because I felt if I got it in on the flop I'm not in great shape so I ended up just calling.

This was pretty much where I was on the turn although I felt checking back was bad because I didn't want to give a free card against his range which probably picked up some equity. Bet/fold isn't an option since I'd be getting like 4-1. so either jam, bet/call, or check back. If turn is a blank, I like check back more I think.

Flop is a fold versus a ton of villains, but your read really isn't good enough. We're WA/WB here sooooo much. We need him to be raising AK/KQ for info to call.

Flop is a fold?

Check back and call brick river

Against of a ton of villains. What hands, exactly, are raising us? We have the nut flush ace, the K is out, that leaves 3-5 combos of combo draws that have a ton of equity against us and hands that dominate us.

In order for flop to be a call he needs to be raising with AK/KQ and air.

It'd be shocking for him not to lead ott after the line he took otf with sets.


I'm not expecting this a huge percent, but does anyone think this is a metagame hand? Villain's just pissed about the seat change and c/r as a bluff and now is shutting down?

Oh, indeed!

There is no definite one or the other if you are a winning player. He leads here most of the time with vulnerable flopped monsters however.

Is AK and KQ enough?

Bigger pre (if you think he's calling wide, that's a reason to make it bigger when you have a value hand obv).

As played, flop is somewhat marginal, but nowhere near a clear fold like some ITT think. Villain has shown that he's capable of bluffing in big pots (3 barrel bluff + raise/fold Q55 flop), so we can put him on some air in addition to his draws, and more importantly, his value range is super tiny (99/88/98s = 8 combo's). So bet/call is fine.

When villain checks the turn, you have the best hand almost always. The only hands that beat you that make even a remote bit of sense are QTdd and 98s (3 whole combo's). His most likely hands are JTs (OESD that picked up a pair), Jxdd (FD that picked up a pair), KQ/AK (if he raised those OTF), and air. Sets and KJ bet the turn.

Shove turn.

I think he could take this line with KQ. I discount AK because I think he raises more preflop with premiums. Other than sets/98s/combodraws, KQ and the non-diamond combos of JTs. He could also just be playing back at me with something random given dynamic at the time.


Agree with your assessment of the turn range. I felt like I had the best hand at that point. Villain had a PSB left on the turn so if I think I have the best hand and villain almost always a hand with some equity, I should be shoving turn.

The other option is to check back turn with the intention of calling a bet/value-betting any non Q/J/T/8/diamond river?

results

Turn (Pot $295)
J

check, hero bets $165, villain thinks for about ten seconds and jams, hero calls $135 more.

river K, villain flips JTcc and mhig.


Not sure if villain would have folded to a turn shove or not or if my bet induced a shove but I really hated my turn bet after the hand.

Villain's mistake in the hand was not shoving turn.

Betting the turn is pretty mandatory with that wet of a board and villain checking to you after the check raise. Nh

Flop sucks, but given his past of c/r'ing boards where he reps nothing and the fact that we're only worried about 8 combos on a board that will have a ton of draws, call is completely fine. Turn is a MANDATORY bet when he turns his hand faceup by checking (unless hr's going for back-to-back c/r's lol). I would b/c an amount that makes villain think he has FE with his draws, $100 even. Against a player who's less aggressive, I would Obv just shove

Ouch, $165 seems like the worst bet we could make. It seems like the best way Yo give him an okay price while still saying, "I am never folding and I am not trying to bluff you." you've gotta shove or leave more behind.

If you jam you're not giving villain a chance to spew shove, assuming hero took villain's stack size into account and evaluating his range it is likely that hands we beat here and are continuing with this hand (i.e. combos) can spew shove back at hero a decent amount of time with described villain (triple barrel bluff is good enough of a characteristic).

I'd be more susceptible to stack off with a c/shove than call a shove when I know I'm behind, that's fold equity. However giving hero 4-1 here by x/shoving is also bad, so in saying that villain's fold equity EV is maximized by villain shoving into hero when taking into consideration villains perceived range.

just grunching this out, but lots of things stand out to me:

preflop, raise larger ffs

turn, when villain checks the turn we are ahead 95% of the time. We should play for stacks. The straightforward play is to shove.

flop, the real decision in this hand is on the flop. If we decide to continue, folding the turn against an aggressive villain is spew. As described, I am not folding tptk to villain on this flop. Especially not after the preflop action, which was ultra-"ghey"

in my world, we raise to $45 pre, villain calls, we bet $70 on the flop, villain raises, we shove, ez game.

edit: just read through the thread and holy cow villain's preflop and turn play are awful. Preflop is horrible, even at the price you set. The turn is way worse: he must shove or check/fold. Check/shoving is massive spew. If you were planning to flat flop/fold turn, shoving would be massively +EV for him, but personally in his shoes I prefer to check/fold. His check/raise failed to take the pot down, and your calling range from flop to turn should be pretty static.

Villian completely misplayed the turn and let you back into the hand.

Well played by the OP.

2.5x < x < 3x pre isn't a bad 3b vs a non-station if you are consistently doing this and don't want to show everyone AK or JJ when you do bump it over 3x

Read post above, all draws and combos are folding to a shove with 2-1 so why not induce some spew if has some aggro characteristics? Of course you shove vs a fish though

Agree with villain making it easy on hero

This thread is a great example of a common mistake people make. Don't let your opponents get pot committed. The villain didn't use fold equity and if he shoved the turn hero would most certainly fold.