b/b/b....win most of the time, rake chips. And, yes, I did read and consider everything that you posted regarding this hand.

end thread. You had a conclusion that you played this perfectly before you made the thread. No point discussing it regardless of how terrible you played it.

In other news, dchg never 3bet cbets shoves air in this spot despite only getting called by the nuts.

lol

thou shalt always go for max value?

Please tell me he had quads.

It doesn't even matter what the guy has, the fact that you have AA and gave pretty much a free SD to stack yourself is just horrible poker.

ofc I am calling a river bet, thats why I checked turn. Unless he shoves, which I dont have to call. I would go through a few things. actually a shove is a call, a small bet is a raise and a large bet is a call

are you here to make things up or have a discussion? I actually made this thread because I was confused. As the thread went on, I saw that my logic was good but it needed to be clarified. This isnt a MUBS hand, this is a "how do we extract value from a wide range on a dry board" hand

exactly. The key is, what is max value here?

fwiw, he checked river. I bet 80 into 130 (40+40+25+25)

board is Q443Jr

Our definitions of max value are clearly different.

the most amount of money made vs a range of hands

I would've bet every street here. We miss stupid amounts of value when we check the turn and bet the flop so small. Also you admit you are not folding on the river so we make it more likely we win a small pot when we are winning and lose a really big pot when behind.

If you ever barrel and have got caught barrel bluffing then we can get called by much worse when we keep betting.

So don't bluff, and when you have a strong hand, bet as little as possible to induce call.

That's your idea of how to beat LLSNL?

Hm, dhcg asked me about this hand before I read the thread; I told him I like a bet bet bet line, and I think his sizing on flop is okay. I also said that against some players in this situation I don't hate a turn check. I think if dhcg is playing this hand against me, taking this line is actually pretty good (unless I knew he would take this line, then it's a matter of balance). Basically I still prefer bet bet bet by default, but if villain is a good lag, he's going to make this fold fairly easily, and I don't hate mixing it up. That said, if I do mix it up, I'm more likely to do it with a hand that blocks top pair, like top set, or AQ, or similar.

Also if we bet the turn, I definitely want to bet the turn so the river is a big bet; this can rep far more bluffs in our range than if we size it so river jam is 2/3 or 3/5 or whatever. That's assuming if villain is a decent lag (which when talking to dhcg he said he might be, but I wouldn't know obviously).

Anyway, on the other side, despite me not being super averse to a turn check, the way he phrased it in this thread "fml JJ got there" make him look pretty mubsy, and I guess he could just be splainin'.

btw, we could always overbet the river. Polarize our range, rep JJ or air. I mean, basically his hand looks like TT 99, and we can look like we're trying to bet him off that. I actually don't hate a check if we plan to river overbet often. Jam is decent. Obviously this is not OP's intention, but I wanted to throw that in there.

In practice I almost always bet turn here, and here's my reasoning: With the majority of my weak showdown hands I bet turn very small to see cheap showdown/extract thin value. In order for me to do that effectively, I must also have a bet/calling range on the turn, and removing AA or KK from that range would be super unbalanced. Furthermore I think the value is similar.

But if dhcg's description of villain to me is accurate, I definitely like a 45 bet > check > 100~ bet.

If villain is a station 100~ is perfect and this thread should not be made at all.

That includes betting large enough to stack KQ, or convince JJ that we're FOS on the flop and bluff raise us.

If he's a donkey caller preflop, why would you assume that he won't make bad calls postflop?

There are enough players in these games that will immediately and unmovingly "put you on AK" and call two streets before they realize that their 99 is no good.


I said it already, but the biggest problem with this hand is the completely ****ed up flop bet. It is so completely un-normal that it's going to look suspicious even to the waitress three tables over. It's almost like you're telling him "I have QQ, please call SOMETHING".

If you'd sized the flop better, the turn check becomes viable, especially if you can somehow project disgust at the flop call and/or turn card. Otherwise with a close to PSB on the river, you can get stacks in if you so choose. AP getting stacks in is a pretty large overbet, so it's not even an option.

Why would JJ EVER bluff raise the flop?

Flop bet sizing is good. Whilst turn is a lot more debatable, turn bet sizing is definitely good. How much do you want to bet here when you have AK or A7 or K6?

I'm not really clear why the OP is adverse to most profitable line: 3bpf/b/b/b.... 40/45-50/100/200 (push)... I've only been at about 5 $1/$2 tables in 15 years of playing NL where anything else was required by the level of play of my opponents. It's only 200BB. It's not that hard to get it in the middle at 1/2.

I actually read this whole thread through two more times but I just can't see what we are trying to accomplish in this hand.

JJ/TT sometimes raises this flop because they only face one over card, and think:
A) Hero has AK, I'm ahead and should make him pay for an A.
or (less likely)
B) Hero has AA/KK I can rep queens and win here.

Neither reason seems very good, but I mention them because I SEE them happen in $1/2 games.


I'd love to bet $5 when I whiff the flop, and I'd love to bet nearly pot with AQ+ hit here. But since we can't really do either of those completely, $40 when we whiff and $80 when we hit is about the largest gap that I'd run without specific player history. With AK,A7,K6 I'd like to get some FE on the flop, which I don't think we have with the small $25 underbet.

You said yourself that he's a donk so I'd try to get as much money in PF as possible. Bet as much as you think he will call. Once he calls your goal should be to stack him no matter what the board looks like.

After him calling your 3bet I think folding AA at any point is -EV(taking into consideration the history you've given and V's tendencies). Pretty sure he's gonna hero call a very wide range of hands.

I dont think I can stack this guy for 180bbs on Q44r that often

Im mostly trying to see if trying to get max value from underpairs and bluffs is more than stacking KQ or AQ

Did I say he was a donk? I didnt feel that way but let me check

You called him a donk in the OP regarding him calling your 3bets pre.


What people are telling you is that:
180BBstacks* (% of the time he stacks off) > 40BB * (% of the time that you small value from an underpair)

My argument is that the weird bet on the flop actually DECREASES the chance that you're going to get value from underpairs or bluffs. Observant opponents will be suspicious that something is up, and unobservant opponents would've called a larger bet with a weak hand.

^^^self-fulfilling prophesy if this line of thought keeps you from betting (enough).

they don't call 100% of the time when you don't bet. they dont stack off unless you build the pot first.
the idea is to get them committed by having them make bad calls against you on earlier streets so where they have to make a crying call on the river. the hallmark of 1-2 players is that they don't fold, not that they don't call (in general).


LS is about playing a good hand against a bad player; not getting fancy, nothing too dazzling. printing money is the object of the game.

ask yourself how you would play this hand w/ a small pair like 33 (you play it the same PF from what ive seen).
do you turn it into a bluff and bet pot OTF? would you get tricky?
if you would, you are playing backwards poker and don't feel good about playing str8forward simple stupid poker for some weird reason?

from a mathematical point of view there is zero controversy on how to play this AA hand, but we've been over that.

also, btw, there are no decent lags in 1-1-2 at LC. none. there are virtually none at 3/5.
it would be glaring if it was the case, it wouldnt be like 'maybe'.

fwiw, I think its great that we have finally gotten to the root of the issue here

I think that when you confuse people in poker, they are MUCH more likely to call than fold.

additionally, I am not really looking for small value from an underpair, but from large value,which is what I think I get if I bet flop smaller than expected and then check turn

additionally, I want to get value from bluffs, which I also gain by taking a weird passive line vs an agg

so we are looking at 180bbs (and we also need to calc how often we lose 180bbs here) vs the 12bbs on the flop and whatever we bet on river. I bet 40bbs on the river, but I think I shouldve bet more, perhaps even overbet the pot as Sol suggested.

if I overbet pot and get called (vill is usually checking to call here fwiw, as he does have a river bluffing range) then how much do we need to bet to make it close to the 180bb ev,

pot is 130, so 65bbs, do we pot it? do we bet like 80bbs?

hrm

you see me 3b 33 vs a random? unlikely

I just fold 33 pre from EP

I would like to see someone lay out the math of getting stacks in and how often we lose to QQ or random 4x or a turned FH vs the amount of times we get stacks in vs KK,AQ,KQ,QJ.

i distinctly remember you habitually auto-3-betting small pairs PF, but w/e. i have an elephants memory for hands/ tendencies. you 3 bet me (a grinder) w/ 44 w/ 80bb stacks. i folded a better hand, and you flopped a set vs. a drooler (big ben) who cold called. flop K4XQQ. lol bingo poker. remember?
but, just trying to illustrate my point; its backwards thinking.
its what you fall into when you want to get 'advanced' before you get the fundamentals down. or when you value the thrill of being tricky above making $, imo.

Nope.

Villains are MUCH more likely to bluff you if they think you're actually weak, not playing some "please call me" small ball bull****. When you bet a standard amount on the flop it looks like you want them to fold, then the check behind on the turn (+ maybe a physical false tell if you're that kind of guy) looks weak enough for him to valuebet a weaker Q, or semibluff a pair on the river.
The "Raise AK pre and c-bet flop then shutdown" line is sooo common that V's are used to floating these flops and taking it away from you on the river ... just let them try.