So basically villain has been opening a large amount, like 4x the open (open is $4 so he opens for 16 alot) and I've 3b him a few times prior to this, with JJ+ I think, and he calls every time like the donk he is.

Stacks are about 400eff (hard to tell cause $1 chips and $20 chips ldo)

I dont believe in image at llsnl but I have 1k in front and Ive been semi active, but pretty tight.

table has a few stacks of $400, and one or two shorties

400eff
V is in UTGp1
Hero is in MP with AA

V opens to 16, I 3b to 40. V calls

Maybe I can go larger as I have been 3b his opens alot and he calls everytime.

pot is $80

Q44r

V checks, I bet 25.

( I leveled myself into betting small because Im pretty sure he bluffed a blocking bet of mine before on a paired board and I think he views my range as really wide here. FWIW, I like betting 1/3 or 1/4 pot in order to keep V calling range as wide as possible, letting us get more value on further streets)

pot is $130, eff stacks are $335 now

Q443r

villain checks, I also check

(I think I can bet here and get looked up by all Qx and all PPs, but I dont think Ax calls my bets and I dont think I can get 3sts from anything less than Qx. I also do this because basically, in live poker, regs like us never check the turn with made hands, meaning we will get paid alot on rivers. I also plan on raising any river bets assuming river isnt a card that I think gives him a FH.)

pot is $130, eff stacks are $335 now

Q443J

Ok, so now Im like fml, JJ makes perfect sense and I have no idea what to do.

Thoughts on every street appreciated

bet $80 when he checks to you?

3b bigger, bet flop bigger, bet turn, bet river

Bet more on all streets. Why don't you believe in image at low stakes? If its because you don't think villains are sophisticated enough to pick up on how you're playing then there's no need to take such a weird line to get money in and you're just leveling yourself into making less money.

if the river was a T, TT will make perfect sense I guess

bet the turn. ship a check raise

This is Monsters Under the Bed Syndrome (MUBS).

Bet 60 into 130 and expect to be hero-called by pocket sevens. If he clicks it back, call. Your hand is under-repped.

Preflop: Despite not believing in image, this guy is well aware you have 3bet him a couple times previous. He didn't fold to the early ones, so he's not folding very often the more you do it. So, not knowing how big you 3bet him in the past, I 3bet him bigger here. Like 55-60.

flop: The <1/3rd pot bet really isn't in my arsenal on that many flops. I think you can get more value than $25. More money on the flop makes more money on the turn and river. You might get a few more loose calls on the flop for that price, but not enough more imo. Just half - 60% pot it imo.

turn: You'll never get 3 streets of value if you only bet on two streets. Hoping that your turn check induces a river b/c is FPS. Just bet bet bet. Even though he's calling all your 3bets, doesn't mean there are many 4x hands in his preflop range you have to be worried about.

river. Action? generally I'm going to call most bets that are 60% pot or more, and raise anything else.

when you bet so small on the flop you will get called thinner. which makes checking turn very bad.

Your sizing on every street is awful.

Bet turn.

Betsizing is terrible, why check turn he has no fours in his range.

raise more pf, pot the flop, pot the turn, ship the river

would you bet bigger if you had AK?

its a great flop for your hand.
he called off 10% of his stack PF against the nuts.
the SPR on the flop is @4.5:1.
you would need overwhelming evidence to suggest youre beat to even consider shutting down/ getting away, and V has shown zero initiative.
I would want to bet flop bigger, barrel the turn, and be looking to get in the rest on the river. checking turn is pure FPS.

JJ is 3 combos. if he has it, or a random 4, so be it, his play was unprofitable anyways. (if you bet more on the flop. $25 is giving JJ odds to continue if they can see turn and river)

if you bet pot on the flop, and he calls, the pot is $240, and he has $280 left.
bet 1/2 pot on the turn, and he has to call off river.
If he sees you as aggressive, you can get looked up by all kinds of crap.

Bet $40-50 on flop, $100-120 on turn, shove river, stack new chips. If he has JJ you deserved to lose this pot. If he really had a 4 then suck it up and move on to the next hand.

this

Pre i can see us betting bigger
Flop i can see
But i dont think this is a 3sts hand

Whatre we trying to get value from for 3sts

If he beats you in this hand, with this board, it's variance. Bet this baby as much as you can.

You can't be afraid of variance. Get it in good, and let the cards sort themselves out.

Where is the all in?
He has jj qq who cares. Ship ship ship ship ship ship ship

I dont ship when I think someone has a better hand than me and I have no FE

saying "thats variance" is ******ed.

also, if someone plays their hand badly preflop then thats great for us, but it isnt an excuse to make mistakes

if you aren't getting called 3 streets here by any Q or TT, he's not a fish

not trying to get stacks in with AA is criminal

Then why are you making so many in this hand?

I actually don't mind the small bet on the flop. Many people will see this as weak and call with any pair, c-raise a Q for value and c-raise bluff a lot of hands - it's not like we are scared of any turn card. Plus if villains are half observant it's great to show that your small c-bets are sometimes nutted hands for future c-bets.

But why, o why, o why don't you bet this turn????? You absolutely have to bomb it here - and confuse him into thinking you are bluffing.

It's much easier to discuss hands when the OP includes his thinking about the hand and what range he puts Villain on.

What were you scared of on each street?

He may not have bluffed. The way you check every hand people probably never you think you have anything.

AQ, KQ, QT, QJ, 77-99?

i still don't get how you bet the flop small to induce a raise, and then want to shut down for no discernible reason when he just calls the small bet that he's calling w/ his entire range. you don't define your hand or his either. I don't get how you can think he 'might' have a better hand. his actions have done nothing to suggest this is the case at all.
its certainly a WA/WB situation, because he's lucky if he has 2 outs on this board, and if he has a 4, you have 2 outs. i think it's safe to say that he is a huge dog to show up w/ a 4 or QQ here, (and you have everything else in the deck crushed.)
so get it in, whether youre coolered or not. It's profitable, because the overwhelming amount of times you value-own him make up for the realitively few times that you value-own yourself, and then some. If youre not value-owning yourself every now and then, then youre not playing optimally.
youre mathematically committed OTF already, so you can actually just play this like a donk, and not care what he has. arrrr in. you would need to be 3 times deeper to play for pot control, imo.
find the best line to get the monies in as fast as possible, imo. figure out how to build the pot up, and mostly thats going to be bet/ bet/ bet outside of some specific read on villians tendancies.

don't worry, showdown monkeys will call off with much worse since they get to go to showdown (the object of the game to them).
If they think youre image is such that you are capable of going crazy w/ AK here, it's criminal to not take the same line that you would take going crazy w/ AK w/ AA, imo.

I felt like the EV of getting two streets of value was better than the EV of going for 3 sts.

I was never scared of anything lol, except for not getting called
well heres the thing, if you think 77+ is going to call you then the same line with AK is not that great imo.

AQ, KQ, QT, QJ, 77-99?

also I am heavily discounting all Ax given that I have AA in my hand. I also dont think QT is flatting pre, sometime QJ will but maybe not. I REALLY dont think 77-99 is calling 3 sts, but maybe.

I disagree that I am commited on the flop, but tbh, I DO think the flop is the best place to get it in, so maybe you are right, I cannot tell for sure though.

Basically on **** dry boards like Q443J I think its crazy hard to get 3 sts not to mention stacks in vs anything that we beat besides KK, AQ KQ or QJ.