Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
Yeah that's the main point. By the time anyone who is good enough to win at that winrate at 1/2-1/3 plays 2000 hours, they're already well and truly playing 2/5.
Maybe. I don't think anybody's true win rate at 1/3 is 17bb/hr, at least as a grinder at normal games.
Again, let's throw out scenarios like, it's an uncapped game and you only play on the weekends.
This is where we talk about massive downswings, and the void and the fact that some go years before running into them and a lucky few go their whole lives. Someone winning at that rate for 1k hours likely has both run good when winning and never had much of a losing stretch.
I'd also add that, at least in my experience and in many places, it's not like there is some huge gulf between the beatablility of 1/3 and 2/5. You do get more people who literally barely know how to play in 1/3, but it's not that common anymore and they buy in for $100. You will have more and better grinders in 2/5 but, at least in LV, you can often avoid them. You're also more likely to find a true whale in 2/5. That is, someone who genuinely DGAF about the money and has no problem blasting off one buy in after another. Saw one last night, in fact. Meanwhile, at 1/3 you'll find more ultra nits who buy in small. Also, rake and tips have much less impact on your rate. Maybe 2bb/hr or so?
Point being, if your true win rate at 1/3 is 17bbs, I'd expect your 2/5 rate to not be very far behind once you get locked in. There are other reasons too. Like, since you were likely a noob at 1/3 you, should continue to improve on your prodigious abilities.
FWIW, I just won about 10-11k in about 10 weeks of 1/2, playing maybe 25 hours a week. I don't really track my results much, so that's an estimate. I WANT to believe I could make 50k/yr working 25 hours a week. Part of me was saying, "you've finally done it! You're now a poker genius!" But I know otherwise.
And again, probably the most compelling reason to me is, nobody else seems to be doing it. There are a lot of people smarter than you or me out there who have PhDs and are adjunct profs making peanuts, or out of work. Lots of Walter White types. They've absorbed texts far more challenging than poker books and training videos. They know that poker exists. So why aren't they picking up their easy money? If non-world class players can make 17bbs/hr, surely many of these people could make 10-12 pretty easily.