Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-27-2018, 10:27 AM   #20951
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Who thinks less than 5% of 1/2 & 1/3 players win 10bb+ per hr over 2k hours?
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 10:31 AM   #20952
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
meale
1k cap 200 min 9 handed
10% rake capped at 5$ & 2$ jackpot drop (the 2nd jackpot dollar gets raked when the pot hits 20$
this game is raked and jackpot dropped pre
so if someone opens to 20 and I 3 ball em and everyone folds they will rake the full 7 cuz they round up. If I steal the blinds the house policy is to rake 2$ (1 & 1)but some dealers will only rake 1.

This preflop rake is insanely expensive
Interesting. The preflop rake does suck a bit, but your cap is actually fairly favourable. I'm wondering how your 2/5 compares to mine in terms of ceiling winrates...

Mine is a $500 cap, $100-$500, 10% rake capped at $15, no jackpot. All pots also fully rake pre-flop and chopped pots also raked. I think the difference between our games is magnified in big pots. Every time I play a pot $150 or more, I'm raking an extra $8 per hand. If I win just 2 of these pots an hour (totally excluding the myriad smaller pots that reach your cap before mine), we're suddenly winning at $15 less per hour JUST because of rake structure.

And then I wonder what influence the $500 cap vs $1k cap difference has... I find a LOT of recs in my game buy in for $100-$200, with $100 probably being the median buyin amount. This makes for a lot of pots that are raked effectively quite high as the size of the pots isn't much higher than $150 as often.

What do you think? How much if any of a disadvantage is a grinder at in my room vs urs?
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 10:32 AM   #20953
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Who thinks less than 5% of 1/2 & 1/3 players win 10bb+ per hr over 2k hours?
Much, much <1% would be my guess.
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 10:42 AM   #20954
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Way less. Nobody who crushes that much reaches 2k hours before moving up.
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 10:44 AM   #20955
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree
Posts: 10,254
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Meale - its really hard to speculate without ever having gambooled in your room (play quality is obv a huge factor). You guys dont tip in OZ correct? Tipping is a major league expense here.

The 500/1k buy in I honestly dont see as a huge thing. What I do see as a big deal is the difference between 100 and 200 minimum. That 100$ min buy for a 2/5 game really really sucks.
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 10:52 AM   #20956
sevencard2003
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: las vegas
Posts: 2,642
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Meale - its really hard to speculate without ever having gambooled in your room (play quality is obv a huge factor). You guys dont tip in OZ correct? Tipping is a major league expense here.

The 500/1k buy in I honestly dont see as a huge thing. What I do see as a big deal is the difference between 100 and 200 minimum. That 100$ min buy for a 2/5 game really really sucks.
$100 min buyin for $2-5 would let a lot of people who cant afford $2-5 the opportunity to finally start playing it properly rolled and they could start earning a much better hourly. i wish vegas offered this, where can i find it?
sevencard2003 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:05 AM   #20957
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you can only afford to buy in for $100 than don’t play 2/5. You are providing nothing to the game, are a complete leech and everyone at the table is counting the minutes until you bust out.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:09 AM   #20958
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
Who thinks less than 5% of 1/2 & 1/3 players win 10bb+ per hr over 2k hours?
Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Much, much <1% would be my guess.
Really? I'm talking about 1/2NL with $300 max buy-in & 1/3NL with max $400 or $500 buy-in.

I'd say avg buy-in in 1/2 is $225 & 1/3 is $250.

SquidFace is right about tipping being major expense. I am a conservative tipper but 8% of my gross still goes to the dealers.

I am having a horrible year & my avg has dropped down below $14 pr hr, but it's only been above $18 for over 300 hours once & that is using the filter starting with the 3 hr session where I won $1150.00.

I have been playing over 1200 hours a year since July 2014.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:14 AM   #20959
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Way less. Nobody who crushes that much reaches 2k hours before moving up.
This is not true. I know 3 people who do quite well playing 1/2NL & have a huge bankroll & do not play 2/5NL because the games are tough & too much partnering going on in the small rooms where you only see 1 or 2 2/5NL going.

These 3 people have a bankroll north of $20k & they aren't going to tough it out in a 2/5 game when they have so many bad players in 1/2 games. They won't even sit at a table with other good players, except to wait for their table change.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:23 AM   #20960
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Meale - its really hard to speculate without ever having gambooled in your room (play quality is obv a huge factor). You guys dont tip in OZ correct? Tipping is a major league expense here.

The 500/1k buy in I honestly dont see as a huge thing. What I do see as a big deal is the difference between 100 and 200 minimum. That 100$ min buy for a 2/5 game really really sucks.
I didnt either until my room raised the max buy in to $1000 on Feb 1st. My win rate has skyrocketed. Not all because of the increased buy in. Some is run good, but some of it is directly related to the increased buy in. Ive won $500+ in any single hand way more than ever before.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:23 AM   #20961
ES2
adept
 
ES2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Much, much <1% would be my guess.
Agree. Though 2k hours is few enough to just run really good.

It depends on the games too. Someone playing uncapped 1/2 would have a much better shot.

I'd be even more skeptical in 1/3 games of which I am aware. You're now suggesting that it is possible to make like $70,000/yr in cash, plus some comps, playing low stakes poker. If that is possible, it is certainly not obtainable by 5% of the pool.

Though, I guess the counter to that is he just said 2k hours. He didn't say how long it took to play those hours. So, we might be talking about someone who just plays fri and sat night between 10pm and 6am, when a tournament is going at the casino, for many decades.
ES2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:23 AM   #20962
sevencard2003
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: las vegas
Posts: 2,642
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

this is true, because for 25 yrs now i still play $1-2 NL, not $2-5. my roll is up to 15,000 but i dont want $500-2000 swings every single day. i hate even dropping $1000 over 2-3 days. makes me feel like OMG, almost a months rent or 2 weeks worth of winnings disappeared. i keep thinking once i hit 25k, then i can finally move up.

of course if the min buy was $100 in $2-5 i might see it differently
sevencard2003 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:26 AM   #20963
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
Agree. Though 2k hours is few enough to just run really good.

It depends on the games too. Someone playing uncapped 1/2 would have a much better shot.

I'd be even more skeptical in 1/3 games of which I am aware. You're now suggesting that it is possible to make like $70,000/yr in cash, plus some comps, playing low stakes poker. If that is possible, it is certainly not obtainable by 5% of the pool.

Though, I guess the counter to that is he just said 2k hours. He didn't say how long it took to play those hours. So, we might be talking about someone who just plays fri and sat night between 10pm and 6am, when a tournament is going at the casino, for many decades.
Definitely possible....and def not for 5% of players. Probably 1%
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:27 AM   #20964
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When I say "nobody" I don't literally mean zero people, as I already stated "way less" indicating there's surely people who do but its not close to 5%. You naming a few people doesn't counter my non-literal claim.

fwiw 2/5 games are never as tough as you guys seem to think they are


@70k/year at 1/2 or 1/3 -- absolutely possible, but the majority of those who are able to are making 6 figures playing bigger games.
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:30 AM   #20965
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
this is true, because for 25 yrs now i still play $1-2 NL, not $2-5. my roll is up to 15,000 but i dont want $500-2000 swings every single day. i hate even dropping $1000 over 2-3 days. makes me feel like OMG, almost a months rent or 2 weeks worth of winnings disappeared. i keep thinking once i hit 25k, then i can finally move up.

of course if the min buy was $100 in $2-5 i might see it differently
I've left the poker room because the avg stacks in the 1/2NL games were $150 & made up of players who don't put $25 in the pot w/o at least a big draw, so I don't see myself interested in playing 2/5NL with avg stacks of $200. I refuse to be a shill for the poker room.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:34 AM   #20966
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
When I say "nobody" I don't literally mean zero people, as I already stated "way less" indicating there's surely people who do but its not close to 5%. You naming a few people doesn't counter my non-literal claim.

fwiw 2/5 games are never as tough as you guys seem to think they are


@70k/year at 1/2 or 1/3 -- absolutely possible, but the majority of those who are able to are making 6 figures playing bigger games.
If you lived 30 minutes from a casino & sat at the table 2000 hours in a year, that would be $35 per hour. So, less than 5% make 10BBs but 17.5BBs is absolutely possible.

I've seen a really good player lose a lot of money in one week, when the week started with flopped quad Qs on a KQQ board vs. AK, only to get coolered by running kings. Then, in the same week, flops top set over middle set, only to lose to runner, runner, flush. Those were two big hands I remember. I could see a BOT staying on its A game after that without taking some time off.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 02-27-2018 at 11:39 AM.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:36 AM   #20967
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree
Posts: 10,254
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I didnt either until my room raised the max buy in to $1000 on Feb 1st. My win rate has skyrocketed. Not all because of the increased buy in. Some is run good, but some of it is directly related to the increased buy in. Ive won $500+ in any single hand way more than ever before.
I believe this is more related to a structural change of the casino. If you have a bunch of screwballs (snowbirds that have never played a 1k game suddenly playing 1k) that game is gunna b off the hook for the initial phase of that change. But over time the difference will die down.
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:39 AM   #20968
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
If you lived 30 minutes from a casino & sat at the table 2000 hours in a year, that would be $35 per hour. So, less than 5% make 10BBs but 17.5BBs is absolutely possible.
lol?

but the majority of those who are able to are making 6 figures playing bigger games.
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:46 AM   #20969
niceguy22
adept
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 820
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Who thinks less than 5% of 1/2 & 1/3 players win 10bb+ per hr over 2k hours?
I think way less than 5% of all players do. But if we're talking about winning players, I'd imagine around 5% of all winners make 10bb+ per hr.
niceguy22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:48 AM   #20970
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@YGOchamp: I refuse to play 52 weeks a year. I take two 1 week vacations about 6 months apart. That leaves 50 weeks to play poker & golf. To make $100K a year playing 2/5NL I would have to avg $2000 a week. If I play [actually sit at the table] 40 hours a week, that's $50 per hour. For me, that would be 55 hrs a week in the casino.

I'm told that the 5/10NL games at the MGM at National Harbor MD are tough.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:51 AM   #20971
Koss
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Playing Recreationally
Posts: 5,995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
No one is winning remotely close to 95% of sessions
O rly?

Since I've started playing regularly and tracking again:

1) 7 Wins
2) 0 Losses
3) 1 200bb+ win
4) 0 losses
5) 0 500bb+ wins
6) 0 losses.



I love when I decide to hop back in the saddle and go on an instant heater. I actually resurrected my old PG&C thread and saw that 4 years ago I was beating 1/2NL for about $14/hr. Jumping back in i'm at $53/hr through 17 hours (average session lengthy 2.5 hours). The games seem about the same, but for some reason it feels like I'm seeing spots more clearly now than before. It's probably just the heater tho.
Koss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 11:55 AM   #20972
ES2
adept
 
ES2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
When I say "nobody" I don't literally mean zero people, as I already stated "way less" indicating there's surely people who do but its not close to 5%. You naming a few people doesn't counter my non-literal claim.

fwiw 2/5 games are never as tough as you guys seem to think they are


@70k/year at 1/2 or 1/3 -- absolutely possible, but the majority of those who are able to are making 6 figures playing bigger games.
Maybe so. I guess there are 2 questions. What would a world class player, or a AAA or maybe AA player make at 1/3?

How much can a smart person who puts in some work and has the right disposition make at 1/3? i.e. the people who actually do play lower stakes.

When people start throwing out really high win rates, (and assuming it is not just variance), one reason I'm skeptical is it seems like a very big inefficiency.

The poker boom was over 10 years ago. Everybody knows about it. Many people, maybe even most people, think poker is fun and certainly better than a job you hate.

There are tons of very smart people out there. Many of them are unemployed, underemployed or could use some extra money.

Why is all this tax free cash just sitting on the table?

I do have 1 answer to my own question, which is that poker becomes boring after a while for most people and it is hard to play your a game when you are no longer interested. So the very best players either have amazingly disciplined minds, or some quirk whereby poker is always totally fascinating to them.

But I don't think that covers it.
ES2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 12:02 PM   #20973
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I believe this is more related to a structural change of the casino. If you have a bunch of screwballs (snowbirds that have never played a 1k game suddenly playing 1k) that game is gunna b off the hook for the initial phase of that change. But over time the difference will die down.
I see your point and there may be some truth to it, but the snowbirds arent really the ones buying in deep. We have seen many many new faces that Ive never seen before since the buy in increased. I have to assume they are people who used to play other places that already have the higher buy in (Hard Rock mainly). They are mostly not snowbird age.

Now the snowbirds who buy in for a normal $300-$500 do get deep sometimes and its easier to get into a bigger pot with them if I am able to buy in deeper so that part of your statement has validity.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 01:42 PM   #20974
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Much, much <1% would be my guess.
This would be my guess as well.

Although I am a little undecided. My room only has 5 tables, so that would mean if we had 10 tables and all 10 of them were full, that would be 100 players playing. Is just one of those guys crushing the game? Maybe, although I'd have to see his stats to be convinced.

G10bb/hrina100bbmaxBI10%rakedgameisdifficulttoachieve,im oG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 01:45 PM   #20975
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
a higher win % doesn't necessarily mean a higher win-rate (win % is a pretty meaningless stat imo).
Just to play a little Devil's Advocate with my 1/3 NL stats:

First 2000 hours: 9.44 bb/hr with a 70.2% session winrate.

Last 1823 hours: 4.27 bb/hr with a 59.8% session winrate.

But in the end, ya, I'll agree that session winrate is likely meaningless.

GcluelesssessionwinratenoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:42 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive