1/3, 500 eff., hero has been somewhat card dead and running bad for several hours. Getting some AJ/Q/K type hands in EP, getting 2-3 callers and seeing a bunch of ten high flops that I just can't continue on. Won a nice pot when I got priced in to get it in with a flush draw that hit, but mostly doing a lot of x/folding, sometimes making a hand and usually taking down the pot on the turn.

Hero has AA in HJ and opens to 15. Only BB calls. Big blind is too loose, plays weak post flop, generally plays his draws passively, and doesn't understand how to put villains on a range. Thus he won't realize he should fold his TP weak kickers and so on.

Flop (30): 348

Villain checks, hero bets 20, villain calls.

Turn (70): Q

Villain donks 26, hero raises to 55, villain hesitates, is unhappy, and calls.

River (180): 2

Villain checks, hero bets 60, villain is uncomfortable and makes kind of a crying call, but doesn't tank over it at all.


Anyone think I should be betting or raising more on turn or river? I bet 60 because I felt villain would call with whatever Q he might have, and I'm not really sure he could have much but a Q once he flats the min-raise... a Q with a flush draw is probably the top of his range, but I don't even know about how likely the draw is.

Maybe I could be betting at least 90 on the river. Maybe even 110-130?

I suppose some stuff could be tweaked, but I like it as-played.

Raise more OTT.

I actually think if anything I should be betting more on the river. If I raise more on the turn he could get scared of facing another large bet on the river. I don't want to let him get away from his hand, and I know that he's almost never folding to the min-raise with any part of the range he's donking with.

I think he just must have a queen, little else makes sense, maybe he'll occasionally have a draw that he's making a blocking bet with or something.

So even if it's hard for him to fold a Q to a raise, it's still going to be so much harder for him to fold to a river bet AFTER having gotten himself emotionally committed to the pot by calling the min-raise. I definitely think I should have bet more on the river though, now that I think about it.

I dont know what queen he could be floating you with on a board like this, but regardless you have him pegged as a stationey weak player who doesnt understand opponent ranges and "has a hard time folding". So exploit that for everything it's worth and put in a proper raise. Truthfully I never put him on a queen here, I put him on a draw from the flop that thinks he can slow you down on the turn with this donkbet. If he cant fold top pair he sure as hell cant fold a draw which gives even more reason to raise the turn hard. I probably make it a solid $100 on the turn.

And if your goal is to squeak out max value on the river, the best way to do that is to get him to shovel more money in *before* the river. Sure he will find it easier to call a river bet if it doesnt cost him that much money, but he'll also find it hard to fold when he see's a mountain of chips in the middle. On top of all of that, you can still make a small river bet if he calls a big turn bet. I often bet 1/3 to 1/2 pot on rivers vs loose fish just for this reason.

Lets say you drill the turn to 100 and he calls, there's now 270 in the pot. You can now bet 100 or something that seems "reasonable" to him and expect a call assuming he didnt completely whiff. Doing this nets you a 470 pot. If we do it your way we're winning 300 under the same principles.

If he doesnt call our river bet then the difference is only 30, but I'd rather forfeit $30 guaranteed than what I believe to be a very strong chance he calls an extra $170 with a bigger betting line. And if he's just "the donk to end all donks" go ahead and shove river.

Flop is maybe slightly too small.

Turn raise is *way* to small.
River is too small a %.

Im making the turn raise to at a minimum of $75. He could easily have something like KcQc / QcJc. Then you can easily bet $110 on the river

Youre setting yourself up for disaster with the min raise on the turn. The opp made a horribly small bet but that doesnt mean you have to take that bet into consideration. Bet him out, or get beat, dont give odds.

If he has a queen he likely has a flush draw go with it and is never folding turn. If he just has a random float that hit a queen he isn't ever folding. Who floats, hits top pair and folds?

Go around $100 on turn.

Definitely more on the turn. Giving his draws too good of a price. Normally, I'd bet more on the river, but really, the correct bet is the most he's willing to call. It seems like he may not have called much more than 60 in this case.

When you raise turn the pot is $122 and you raise $29.

75 on turn an 150ish on the river against described V.

126 OTT and 170 OTR ..

Raising to 55 OTR is good if you want to prevent - for whatever reason - villain to bet out OTR.

Terrific preflop result. HU, in position, against a face up player, with a big SPR of 16 where stacks will never come into play. Trivial three streets of bet/folding, imo.

Ha, if Villain will call the raise on the turn with worse, I actually don't mind the lol minraise as this is the bet we probably would have put in had it been checked to us. I probably just call here a little more than I should, but I'm cool with the minraise against more noobish players especially if he has sizing tells.

I'm betting more on the river. Even though 65 got there he checked to us so I'm not too worried about it. Honestly looks like Qx (perhaps with flush draw) so lets get paid off. I like the $110 - $130 suggestion.

ETA: Unlike others, I'm a lot cooler with your lol minraise on the turn. I don't want to play for stacks; a big turn raise puts stacks into play. This guy also plays his draws passively, so even though Qx + draw is obviously in the mix, my guess is he also has a lotta lol weak hands (88, Qx overs who called the flop, etc.) and we don't want those folding.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Bigger raise on turn for sure .. don't let the other guy set his own price in spots like this. I'm assuming you would've bet 45-55 yourself. Why allow him to 'see' the same size bet when a raise is involved. I like 55 'on top' not 'raise to' ..

River is a feel bet IMO. I don't think this guy is paying attention to the pot size too much. He is looking at $$ value of those chips. The River shouldn't have helped him (A5?, NO) so we really can't expect him to call much more than the Turn bet IMO. I might even go slightly less. Over-shove or 'true' value here wont get called enough based on the Turn body language. GL

The lead on the turn is weird; it could be a draw blocking bet, but I find these players mostly check/call.

If I had to put him on a hand it would be KcQc, perhaps JcQc

too small on all streets. Not really much else to say.

At $500 effective you’d like to get as much money as possible in preflop because your profits go up when you do so. AA play better if your stack is a little shorter and you can make a preflop raise of about 15-20% of effective if you intend to take the AA all the way to the River. A 12-15%+ of the stacks in preflop with AA, it’s enough that a set farmer isn’t getting the right price to come along, but obviously most people don't know. If the 15 of stack was led make sure to load the pot with lots of chips on the flop unless the flop is really scary.

Raise turn to 100
Then bet 150-160 on River