Yes... My reads are all over. Because I'm bad.

I stand by the fact that he thinks he's a TAG, but I'm not so sure. Why didn't he raise flop/turn with his strong draw!?
(This is why I'm saying he might be passive)
Yes I was surprised he didn't raise flop\turn all in with such a massive draw.

This guy is not a fish, he's a friend, and like me we are both attempting to get better at poker. I don't tell other players normally my thoughts, I told him because we are learning together....
jeez, I may be bad at poker but I'm not an amateur gambler....

judging by his bet, i would put him at 77 or 88
I would have check the turn and check the river, call to small bet and fold to a large bet

I think everyone pretty much agrees I should have ch/f turn and river. I'm going to have to watch out for these spots In the future....

Because it's not very strong on the flop. It's fine for c-betting, but 3-betting your c/r would be silly on his part. He shouldn't think he has any FE against your c/r range. As for calling, he has 9 outs to the second nuts, and no outs to any other hand that beats TP. He only has to call $30 into a pot of $87, so his call is only 25% of the pot. He has to be sure that he can make up the 7% equity deficiency (on just the turn card) in implied odds, especially as your c/r range has 5c6c and 8c9c in it, and he'll always stack you when those hands hit.

OTT his draw is a bit stronger, but not much, and lower in terms of all-in equity with only one card to come. He has three more outs (well, 2 actually with you holding a J, but three in terms of unknown cards) but only one card to come. With an 11 out draw, he's 22% to hit it on the river. Again, his call is only 25% of the pot, and this time he only has to make up a 3% deficiency with implied odds. Super easy call for him here, especially as you've overplayed your hand so much that he has to assume that he has basically no fold equity if he raises and should be able to get a lot of value if he hits.

To be frank, given that we've seen you advocate c/r with TPMK and that you're surprised that he didn't raise "such a strong draw," I think you are taking aggressive to the point of spewy, and that's why he seems passive to you, even though he actually played the hand pretty aggro (betting his draw multi-way, and shoving air OTR when you showed weakness). In think I generally play too aggressively for LLSNL, and even I think you're overplaying here.

As for the talk, go ahead and discuss strat with your friend, but do it away from the table! Talking that stuff at the table is beyond awful.

He gained 6 outs on the turn, 8's and J's give him a straight.
So i actually gave him odds to call, which is what I wanted him to do as I couldnt stand a raise.... of course, my understandings from you is this is wrong thinking...

I totally agree with not talking at the table. Thanks for encouraging that!

For anyone interested I looked up a couple posts about playing OOP pots...

This is a Concept of the Week from 2010 February
microstakes full ring
playingOOP

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...sition-717745/

Donk Betting January 2011
Microstakes full Ring, COTW

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...etting-970282/

Check Calling COTW
MICRO stakes full ring games July 2011

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...lling-1076201/

Just some articles I came across discussing the concepts at hand. Feel free to connect me to other please! Thanks.

Yeah, I forgot about the 8s. They don't offer him much in the way of IOs, when they put a 4-liner out there, but they mean that he was actually getting expressed odds to call the turn, without even having to make up anything in IOs. He's paying 25% to draw to his 28% equity. Why on earth should he raise when he has basically no FE and is getting EOs plus IOs up the ying-yang?

Semi-bluffing is a much better concept on the flop, when one has way more FE and twice as many chances to hit the outs to fall back on if called. Semi-bluffing a c/r OTF, otoh, sucks, even if you have a dozen outs, because you have no FE against most V's c/r range.

You need to do some math to back up this claim. If he's opening QTs his opening range is wide enough that it's at least close. I don't think you should 3bet KJ here, but you should understand the reasoning behind why it is or isn't an option.

I usually raise a polarized range vs this opponent because he usually 4! or folds. I suppose I could incorporate KJo into my bluff 3! range but I don't really want to widen my 3! value range more...

explanation: My understanding is KJo has value vs. his entire range, thus why I called, I don't think it has value as a 3! except as a bluff, and I have plenty of 3! bluffs vs this opponent. A5s-A2s, K5s and K4s.

How many hours of live/hands experience did you have before the thought crossed your mind that 3! KJ here might be a viable play or that you felt comfortable doing so?

I'm probably around 750 hours of live 1/2 and don't make these plays yet mainly because I've found ABC to be highly profitable at these stakes. Before I move up to 2/5 I am going to experiment with plays like this and 3! the top of my folding range but not quite ready yet.

This is why I thought he had a draw. Because he only called and it appeared as though I couldn't fold. I knew if he rr flop or raised turn I was folding. Because he thinks I have to call because I "have" the goods....

But he didn't. So, on the river, he is betting 8cXc or other club draws that missed.

Depending on the range of FD I give him
AQcc, QJcc, JTcc, T9cc, 98cc KJo I win 40/60

if he opened with additional clubs such as AJcc, and ATcc, QTcc-T8cc. 65cc then I actually have 74%-27%. equity vs this range.

If I add in 98s and T8s (The most likely SC he would have with an 8 that may make it to the river, I have 47%-54% hand vs. range.

I don't think anyone at 2+2 advocates shoving the river with anything but a straight on that river, and these are the most likely straights he ends up with. I felt like I had to call because he had missed flushes along with SD enough to call. His range was polarized.... Nuts, or nothing. I could beat his nothing.

I realize I shouldn't have been in the situation in the first place... But alas, I was... So I called...
I'm sorry if what I'm saying doesn't make sense... I'm trying here.

I have 4k recorded live play.

Also: Are you talking about 3! otf? Everyone here is telling me that's a bad idea, I realize I may agree. It put me in a super precarious situation where all the villain had to do was raise me and I was going to fold. Also, it put me in a trouble river spot where perhaps I got lucky and villain was at the bottom of his range... To be honest, I'm unsure, and that is why I am discussing this hand to the extent I am.

If you are referring to 3! KJ pf, most people say it's a bad idea as you are playing vs opponents better range....
If you are referring to 3! KJ on this specific flop, most people say it's a bad idea because you are overplaying/over representing your hand... I have found two spots like this lately and I want to try and figure out if this is true...

I was asked to do some math... here is my attempt at a little math...


If I gave my opponent a range of:
16.1%, which in my opinion is pretty tight vs our normal table of exploitable players.

AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s
for a total of 166combos

btw, vs this range KJo only has 42% equity, the reason most people say folding PF is the best option.

I assumed that he would C-bet close to 100% of his hands on the flop.
So I checked, he bet $17 and I raise to $47. I want to call because my hand is better than his 100% range, but I know I am getting outplayed if I just call because I pretty much have to fold to most turn bets, and my opponent could very well double barrel at free will as I’m turning my weak 1-pair hand face up (or some sort of weak straight draw or flush draw)
So, if I include my call, I am raising $30 to win $62. I am making a 1/2p raise and need him to fold 25% of the time to break even. I find that if I put this range through Flopzilla, and set the filters to include sets, two pair, OP, and TP, also FD’s and OESD, and combo draws. that only 30% of his range continues.... Thus my raise is profitable if it folds all the other hands out, just in and of itself. (is this flawed thinking?)
This of course means his continuing range has me crushed, with me having only 30% equity vs his range...
(I can understand from this why the ch/raise is bad, it folds out all the hands I am ahead of and basically pits me vs. all the hands that have me dominated!)

verses his entire range I have 69% equity otf. But, we know he’s not continuing with that....
So, I assume he is continuing through either raising or calling me.
I assume that Sets, two Pair, and OP’s are getting it in OTF or at least trying, as there are a lot of bad t/r cards that will be coming. This should allow me to fold to better hands or good draws, but preventing me from folding the best hand.

When he just calls I assume he either has FD or set and is playing extra tricky.
when the turn hits, it really doesn’t change much as it only improves 2% of hands to a straight, and give 86cc an open-ender to go along with it...

Here is where it gets tricky though, OTT, when I lead out for $56, I am strictly trying to prevent getting out played by all his worse hands, and get a good price to fold when I am behind...

I represented a strong hand OTF, and he should be willing to raise me to GII with all his good hands, (so a club or straight card doesn’t roll off to scare me). So, I assume he would have raised with anything that beat KJ. (or folds something like KQ) I bet small to prevent him from wanting to push all in with draws because I am definitely folding to a raise. So, I bet small to keep him honest, he will call with all his draws, and raise all his TP+. Unless he chooses to just call down with some of these which I would lose more otr. (if he can call)
on this 9s turn, my hand has %27 equity in the pot. When I bet 1/2 Pot, I am trying to protect that 27% equity to the best of my ability...

But, I think he’s raising f/t with his good hands... Thus his draws are left, or maybe stubborn AA’s or AK, but they are never raising when I bet the river... which sets up my river play....

when I bet the river...
I explained in the post from 12:43....

Btw.. anybody reading this that can’t tell I’m just a learner, please don’t take much from my material... it very well could cost you lots of money...

also, if you have actually read all this stuff... Props to you! And thanks! I am learning and it has at least helped me think through it more clearly.... My problem right now is I am finding reasons for my play and everyone is telling me it is incorrect... So, how do I come to the correct conclusion?
Except the pre-flop call, I totally understand how that is incorrect in that my hand vs. his range is behind. And sklansky said that was a bad idea a long time ago!

TLR:
The only reason everything I did worked is that I was against the smallest portion of his range that would play out this way and I could actually beat it on the river. The truth is that vs most of his range I am dominated and am AT BEST flipping a coin on the river to win a $600 pot, when most of the time I'm just writing him a check for $300 and asking him to buy something nice for his girlfriend. If I made a habit out of this type of play, I would be losing tons of money as a result of exploitable players raising me with less than premium hands.. OR, they could just call me down with Big hands and I would be stuck attempting to Value bet vs their non-existent draws....

Grunch.

With all those people left to act behind you on the flop the raise is okay although I wouldn't normally be raising there. I mean if you do just call you have to figure at least one other person will get involved and its hard to play this 3 ways.

Once you do raise and get the single caller I'm probably just about shoving turn. If the pot is 111 and we have another 140 effective behind I'd make it 95-100 and call the shove.

One person behind otf, just the guy I'm c/r.

I have $256 left ott.
Most people are saying never c/r flop. I cannot just raise as I am OOP.
Thanks!

I just meant you should do a little math to understand whether a 3bet pf is +EV or not. Start with the basics. Your equity with a bluff 3bet hand against villain's opening range is useless info, as he folds a lot of that range and hot and cold equities aren't terribly helpful for analyzing postflop play.

Above looks like a good estimate for villain's opening range given our post-hand knowledge that he opens QTs. I might quibble a little and say he probably opens all suited aces too, but potayto potahto. That's a pretty wide range to open UTG 9 handed and more on the LAG side.

To figure out whether 3betting KJ is profitable, we need to figure out how often villain 4bets and we lose our 3bet amount vs how often he folds and we win the pot. To keep it simple, we'll make a couple assumptions:
1) Villain always folds or 4bets, never calls.
2) SB always folds to our 3bet.
Those are not necessarily great assumptions, but we need to start somewhere. Just as in physics, you start with basic Newtonian mechanics and assume friction doesn't exist, etc.

So UTG opens for 8, SB calls, and let's say we 3bet to 30. In reality you'll get some calls with this sizing, but we're ignoring that. If villain folds we win his 8, SB's 8, and our BB of 2 = 18. If villain 4bets we lose 28. So we need him to fold most of the time; for our play to be neutral EV, he needs to fold 28/(28+18) ~ 60% of the time.

Now we decide what hands he folds, what hands we 4bets, and count combos. Note that since we have KJ we block some combos from his opening range so we need to count again. Let's say he 4bets {AA-JJ,AK} and folds everything else (maybe in reality he only 4bets AA/KK and calls with QQ/JJ/AK and a few more hands).

Combos of 4bets: AA(6) + KK(3) + QQ(6) + JJ(3) + AK(12) = 30
Combos of folds: A lot more than 30! I'm not going to enumerate them all but I think you can see he clearly folds a lot more than 60% of the time.

So, given our assumptions, this is a very profitable spot to 3bet. HOWEVER: our assumptions are not so hot. Villain and SB are going to call some % of the time, and we can run into a lot of trouble with KJ in those spots. You could just c/f every flop when called and your postflop EV would be 0, but realistically no one is doing that and you're probably losing money postflop when called in this spot. The next step in this problem would be to figure out what hands UTG and SB call with and what our EV when called is. These types of post-flop analysis problems are more complicated and better done with software like Flopzilla, etc.

Anyhow, I wouldn't advocate plays like 3betting KJ in this spot until you're more experienced and better able to judge when both players are actually folding to a 3bet a lot and are comfortable playing postflop when called.

Grunch:

Don't love the pre flop call with no reads against an UTG raiser. Generalls this is going to be a pretty tight range, and we are doing badly against that. Esp OOP, esp against someone who we think is a thinker.

Hate the flop check raise.
What sort of range of hands do you think that he will call your check raise with?
Seems like a great spot to blow all of his bluffs out of the water and let him keep all of his better hands in so that we can be sure that we lose the rest of the money in our stack.

Easy fold to the rivere shove.
What do you think he is shoving here with that you can beat?

Brian, do you think you have to play pretty ABC fit-or-fold if you 3! this here OOP? Blindly c-betting a variety of flops (A high, K high, Q high) seems like a massive stab in the dark, though I feel like c-betting more often than checking is still probably the more +EV play.

I see what you are saying, I like the direction you are pointing me in. I need to take some time and develop a better understanding of 3! pots. Also, understanding hand equities vs. ranges. Thanks!

Grunch.

I play a pretty straightforward abc/tag style at 1/2 and most of the hands in your 16% range are simply not in a tag ep raising range.

Most people advocate folding KJo from OOP against a strong range because it plays terrible in this situation, and is not likely to win you any money.

it is unlikely to make anything on the flop better than one pair, resulting in difficult decisions about calling bets out of position, and putting you in the situation where you are not willing to commit early in the hand. It is dominated by a lot of holdings that are in an EP raising range.

All the calculations etc you are throwing out will just make your head spin if you try to think about every situation in these terms.

And 4k recorded? If you mean 4k hours, that is like playing full time every day for two years.

4k hands? This is still approx 3 months full time every day. I hope that either you are exaggerating, or that money is no object to you.

We have tons of history together, a couple hundred hours at least. While I didn't include that (maybe I should have)... I'm learning to identify mistakes in other players games, and my own game; and learning to verbally describe those mistakes.
I think he calls me with draws (as I am representing extreme strength)
also he calls with Medium strength one pair hands... AA\AK\KQ and possibly peels to see what i do on turn with QQ\JJ but i doubt too often...
I think he re-raises with stronger hands, allowing to me to fold, but not allowing me to be bluffed.

TBH, and this is where my thinking may be truly flawed. I wanted to blow his bluffs out of the pot. Because if I allow him to bluff, I lose.

If I c/c flop, and c/evaluate turn. All he has to do is double barrel and I'm out on the vast majority of turns.

I felt like c\c or donking was giving up the pot too often. If I donked flop, he raises with a draw and I have to fold... Now I lose to his good hands and his bluffs... I went up against his made hands and his draws, and because I showed strength, I felt like I was up mainly against his draws and weaker made hands... (Not that I had them beat, but they were't top set...)

I agree that folding preflop prevents this situation... Perhaps I will look for opportunities to stay out of this crapshoot in the future....
thanks!

This is why I say my opponent may not be tag.
Yes, 4k recorded hours. I am learning and when i learn i become a bit focused!

I play to learn, money is a benefit of learning, it's like being paid to go to school...

Also, as far as the calculations go, these calculations are afterthoughts and me trying to understand what was going on in the hand.

We can just outplay this guy by keeping the pot small here and making correct folds/calls.
When we c/r flop and create a huge pot where were going to be OOP with a weak hand...we let him outplay us.

After reading your thoughts I understand the flop c/r a lot more.

But it's still "to see where I'm at" raise, but if this guy GII with TP+ here and only calls with draws you exploited him pretty well.

Ps: when people are mentionning a 3bet, we're talking about a 3bet preflop, not OTF. It's an ok play to make if V folds too much to 3bet and you have a nitty image (card dead) giving you a lot of FE, because it's a bluff with good blockers.

I agree. It was mainly an "information" bet, and we all know that is a bad idea.
in regards to the Ps:
The guy who asked about the 3! I think meant my flop c\r and I incorrectly used terminology because it was late and I was tired. I incorrectly answered the question at 12:43 A.M. this morning. I can't edit it but I recognize my mistake. thanks