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04-02-2008 , 11:21 PM
4-8, live, 9 handed, loose passive game

I have A4d in the small blind. 2 players limp, the next raises. The raiser is on tilt and raises with almost any two cards. Two more cold callers, I call and the big blind calls.

The flop is:

Kc, Qh, 10d

First player bets, next calls, preflop raiser raises. Everyone including me calls for two bets.

Turn is the 2d

Everyone checks to the raiser, he bets. Two players call and then it’s one me.

Do I call or raise? If I have an ace high flush draw on a non-paired flop, in a big pot, I usually raise, reraise and cap the action if I can. Do I do the same thing on the turn in this situation?
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04-02-2008 , 11:44 PM
Sorry I don't think I like the coldcall on the flop. The preflop coldcall is marginal but defensible. However, on the flop you're paying too high a price for what is essentially: backdoor flush & chop gutshot outs. The Aces can't possibly be good.
Again, some of your J outs on the turn are for a chop, so counting only the flush draw, I'd say you are correct to just call. Raising could turn the situation ugly if someone decides to 3bet, which would kill your odds and customer base.
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04-03-2008 , 12:19 AM
If you raise, will every other player call? In most cases, the answer will be no and there will be a showdown on this hand. So make the cheap call at this point.
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04-03-2008 , 12:21 AM
Preflop: I don't usually make this call in the SB. It is probably only a small mistake in what looks to be a big pot.

Flop: It is a little hard to figure what pot odds you are getting on the flop. In principal you have 4 straight and 1.5 BDFD outs, but the straight outs are likely to a chop, which makes this call very marginal. You may only have the equivalent of 3 outs. After everyone called, you did get 15:1 I think, so guess that is ok with 3 outs.

Turn: On the turn you are going to complete this flush draw about 1 out 5 times. If you are sure more than 4 other players will call the raise, a raise is +EV. If less than 4 players call the raise, it is -EV.

A flop raise with a flush draw makes more sense. With two more cards to come, you will complete your flush 1/3 of the time, so you only need 3 callers to be +EV. A raise with a flush draw also makes more sense with position, because it may get you a free turn card or free show down, even if you do not get 3 callers.
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04-03-2008 , 12:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Man of Means
Sorry I don't think I like the coldcall on the flop. The preflop coldcall is marginal but defensible. However, on the flop you're paying too high a price for what is essentially: backdoor flush & chop gutshot outs. The Aces can't possibly be good.
I think the preflop call is standard on this type of table.

The flop is essential 10:1 with 4 ish outs if we discount for dirty outs. I think you have to call here too.
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04-03-2008 , 09:54 AM
I am fine with the calls preflop and on flop. The flop call is much closer in my mind. We really are relying on a backdoor flush draw or a likely split pot gutshot.

The turn isn't a good spot to go nuts with your draw. You need 5 others calling your raise for it to be profitable. I don't know if you can count on that. Better to just get as many callers as possible.
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04-03-2008 , 10:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slavic
The flop is essential 10:1 with 4 ish outs if we discount for dirty outs. I think you have to call here too.
BDFD = 1.5. The J's have to be heavily discounted because: a) there's probably at least one other Ace out there, and b) it looks like a lot of people like this flop, which means the J's (for OESDs) are probably in the hands of the other players. I wouldn't count the Ace outs at all - they're so dirty.

So being generous and valuing the J's as 2 outs, that'll give it 3.5 outs. If all 6 opponents call 2bets you get (14+12):2 or 13:1. I guess it's close depending on how you value the J's. But when people fold or 3-bet the flop then things get worse.
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04-03-2008 , 12:39 PM
pf is fine; i fold the flop tho for 2 cold
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04-03-2008 , 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by leo doc
pf is fine; i fold the flop tho for 2 cold
Agreed. Are you cold calling two to hit a gutshot (chopped) straight, or for the opportunity to have the opportunity to draw to a flush?

But with the call, on the turn you just call not jam it because you want more people in, especially on the river if you get a nice card like the 9 diamonds, or queen of diamonds that might see some raising and no one sees your back door flush of death.
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