10/20 Live at Taj

EP2 is a younger guy who thinks he's a good player but I have seen open limp with 27s and cold call with 68s as well as raise way too marginally. Post flop he is half way decent but not good enough in my opinion to profit.

Hero is MP2 with TT

MP3 and CO are new to the table so I have no reads

BTN is a really bad player. He will 3 bet PF from early position then blind check the flop. He will play many bad hands in many bad situations. He has also been losing money non stop for two days straight.

1 Fold, EP2 Raises, folds to Hero who 3 bets, MP3 CAPS, CO takes 4 to the face, BTN takes 4 to the face, EP2 takes 2 to the face, Hero calls.

Flop is J35 rainbow (21.5 SB)

EP2 Checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, BTN calls, EP3 calls, hero...(25.5 sb when it gets to hero)

im guessing EP2 and EP3 are the same person, based on the pot size it looks like were 5handed.

super easy call on the flop closing the action.

the real question comes on the turn. this pot is bloated, i think we check and assuming MP3 bets again and everyone calls (which im sure they will based on the fact that they called multiple bets pf) we're gonna be getting like 17-1 plus implied which are probably another 2/3 bets. But then there's actually a slim chance we're still ahead of these donks, not a great chance but probably enough to make a call profitable.

i really dont think im giving this hand up unless its 2 back to me on the turn. If it runs near the neutral EV area then i would rather put myself in the hands of variance rather than risk tilting when I see 99 win at showdown. At the same time, betting accomplishes nothing, so the check and see strategy seems optimal.

but a question i got for the vets is whether my math is screwy b/c i don't take into account the fact that i have to call a river bet UI. So maybe the pot odds should be way less than my estimate??? How would you incorporate this into your analysis. Especially since MP3 did cap it pf...

ps i wanna book a flight to AC if the games are this sweet (everyone taking 4 to the face and such)

Call and spike a T for the win!

I'm giving up on the turn if we don't hit though. Unless this table has been absolutely crazy there really is no chance that your hand is good.

I miiiiiight peel flop getting infinity to one, but the turn needs to trip me up. 4 callers = someone else is ahead.

You are about 20:1 to make a T on the turn: folding is not an option IMO. I wonder if coming out w/ a bet on the flop might be better.

everyone else folds the turn?

Your odds of making the set on the turn are 22:1 or something, so you have to call the flop getting 25.5:1. There is also is a small chance you have the best hand.

The turn UI is a little more difficult. There might be 15-17 BB in the pot, if MP3 the turn and most of the players call. Not enough to call based on odds. If the turn is another overcard, I would probably fold. If it is not an overcard, I might or might not call, depending on reads and feel of the situation.