Loose and reckless live 6/12 game. Most pots are raised preflop, and most pots are contested 4+ handed. This one was no exception.

UTG+1 limps and MP1 raises. MP2 calls, HJ folds, CO folds I call OTB with Q T SB makes it three bets, BB calls Everyone else calls.

Initial reads: BB is an odd duck...he is waiting for the 15/30 game and has been caught bluffing in a hopeless situation at least once. He has also, however, played two pots with big hands flawlessly. UTG+1 is an awful calling station. MP1 is a preflop lag and postflop still pretty laggy. I don't know MP2 from adam, and the SB is a good taggish player.

6 handed, 18 small bets.

T 8 7

Sb checks, bb checks, utg+1 checks, mp1 bets, mp2 folds, I raise, sb makes it three bets, bb calls 3 cold, utg+1 folds, mp2 calls, I call

4 handed, 15 big bets

T 8 7 8

sb checks (!!!) and BB bets. MP1 calls, I call, sb calls.

4 handed, 19 big bets.

T 8 7 8 3

sb checks (!!!) and BB bets. MP1 calls, I call, SB calls.

What on earth just happened? I honestly couldn't decide between fold, call and raise on both the turn and river.

WTF? This whole hand is so weird. If SB is indeed a TAG I think he might be capable of taking this line with JTs or T9s. Other than those specific hands I can't imagine what the hell he has. If it is an overpair he played it strangely, if it is overcards he played it poorly. I can't find a fold anywhere in this hand as you played it.

I would have raised the turn considering BB has shown some bluffs.

I think the Cold Call is bad preflop. It could get reraised behind you as it did. The preflop raiser is aggressive, therefore, if you flop a draw he is going to make you pay for it. Plus only three players had entered the pot by the time it came to you. Plus you have a pretty marginal hand at best.

Postflop: I think raising the turn makes sense. The pot is huge, BB takes strange lines, It appears SB is on a draw of some sort. Would he three bet 9Ts,TJs preflop? Perhaps 99 makes more sense. If I call the turn, then I am calling the river in most cases. I will not be putting in anymore money after this unless it is me and BB heads up.

i would raise the turn.

coldcall isn't the worst, but I think we want at least one more person in, especially with your reads on SB and BB.

mp2 = mp1?

Personally, I wouldn't cold call with QTs. If one or two more players were in ahead of me, I would be more tempted. I dislike QTs because it seems to make too many second best hands, especially when it makes a top pair type hand like this. From the button though this cannot be very much of a mistake, if it is a mistake at all. I definitely would not cold call from any earlier position.

SB 3 bet preflop, and then check/3 bet the flop. If the SB is really a TAG his 3-betting range from the SB should be AA-TT, AK, maybe AQs-AJs, KQs. I'm guessing he 3 bet the flop after your raise to try to fold out other players on overcards to clear up his outs.

After BB cold calls 3 on the fop and leads the turn, I would give him credit for a hand. If you are still ahead here, you are not going to fold anyone that has a hand that might draw out on you by raising. If the BB is bluffing, I would just let him bluff and call him down.

The river card shouldn't have completed anyones draw. If you raise and are good, you are probably only called by BB. By just calling you invite the SB to call with A high, because the pot is big. I would just call and expect to lose much of the time.

Would you fold to a 3-bet?

I doubt you are folding anyone with AT or KT by raising here, so do you think this is a raise for value because we are ahead > 25% of the time?

yes. sorry about that.

It would be almost impossible to fold to a 3-bet in a pot of this size with the hand I have. There aren't many hands that I'm drawing dead against....actually, I can only think of two (88 and TT). There are combos of hands that can have me drawing dead, and since I have 3 opponents this is a concern, but I don't think I'd have been able to raise/fold that turn.

raise the turn and fold to a 3 bet.

the pot is monstrous. try to win it please.

Damn you and your intelligence.

About the best you can hope for here is that SB has AK, BB has T9 and MP1 has JT or something like that, but in that case, nobody is 3 betting.

If you get 3 bet, it must be coming from hands like J9, T8, 87, 88 or TT. You don't have very many outs against those hands.

The only reason I can think to raise, is to fold out SB on his overcards, so if an A or K comes on the river, you could still win with top pair. I would expect you to win less than 25% of the time, but maybe the extra wins when the river is a A or K in this big pot would be worth it.

The other reason to raise would be if I could knock the SB off of his currently winning hand and thereby turn my hand into the winner. This parlay (him being in first place and me being in second) won't happen that often (I right now reckon I'm pretty likely to be in last) but when it does, I win 20 big bets....

Before you go "there is no hand SB played well"... how would you guys play 99 if you were the SB?

Doug

That's the hand I put him on, cause nothing else made any sense whatsoever when he checked the turn.

One time when I was running badly, I manually tracked 5000 hands (this was before I ever played on line) to try and discover leaks in my game. My range of limits then was 3-6 to 15- 30 if that matters. I was very surprised to find that QT, suited or not and in position or not, was my biggest loser. The only position where I made money with it was in the BB when I didn't have to pay to play.
I, at that time, would have played it in the position that you describe and probably in the same way. Now I will play the hand suited for one bet only when I am in position and think that this is a leak for me.
This is a trouble hand that you hit and lose with more often than you hit and win. Muck it, especially for 2 bets!

I refuse to muck this hand preflop against a preflop lag. Maybe I didn't make it clear enough in the original post....the first raiser in this hand is capable of raising 78s UTG (I have seen him do it).

What currently winning hand are you going to knock the SB off of? AT or KT would be the only hands you would have a chance of knocking him off. Would he really 3 bet ATs preflop? Would he check and fold it for 2 bets on the trun? That seems a stretch to hope for.

I did try some pokerstove experiments to see how much extra pot equity knocking out AK would buy you. I put BB and MP1 on fairly wide ranges that might be reasonable for their play, but did not include any total bluffs. It looked like knocking out the AK brought you about 2% more pot equity, which is about 0.5BB in what the pot ended up being.

Theoretically speaking, what if the SB held, say, pocket Jacks. Is there any way I can knock him off of that hand?

JJ would have 4 outs to the straight and 2 J outs and two 8 outs to a FH, so he probably would not fold for 2 bets on the turn in this pot, even though his straight is not the nut straight.

Now QQ might fold. It would have fewer outs, but if he counted 4 outs, he might not fold either in this big pot.

I think you're dead as a doornail in this hand, personally. I'd expect to see something like A10s from the SB (a hand worth protecting on that flop that he no longer feels capable of betting or raise after the board pairs, but will call down with in a big pot), and I doubt BB is bluffing on that board after calling 3 cold on the flop.

Yeah except I almost want him to make me pay for it in this spot because flopping a very nice draw (or made hand of course) is really what we're looking for here, in a pot that will most likely be sizable. I like the preflop call - unfortunately the way this hand is playing out is a bit of a nightmare; we're in no-man's land, likely neither way ahead or way behind. Can't be confident but can't fold. I like raising the turn a lot. If 3bet (that would suck obv), can't fold because the pot's too large really. If not 3bet might I add that we could potentially take a free showdown given the strength we demonstrated on the turn?