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PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read)

10-13-2008 , 02:51 PM
In the last few days, we’ve had a number of posts about bad play at low limit live games. A few threads have been locked, and a few others had some good answers. One question, somewhat covered in the various FAQ, is how many hands should I play.

I am an endless pimp for Playing with the Fish. I don’t own Small Stakes Hold’em, but I hear it is good. I’m a fan of Lee Jones. Gary Carson talks a lot about the different theories of poker in his book (I’m going there a little), but I’d recommend borrow over buy. I wanted to post about the fundamentals behind choosing hands to play in a poker game. You can find the charts on these forums and many other places, but you need to understand why you’re playing a hand or why you wouldn’t. The main aim of this post is for people in no-fold’em games; if you’re seeing 4+ people to the flop most of the time and if every hand ends in a showdown, that’s what I’m after. However, the decision process applies to every game.

Why do we play a hand pre-flop? Specifically, why do we play fewer hands than most people? How many fewer? I’ll talk about the “battle for the blinds”, playing opposite the table, and EV ideas here. I’m going to assume that our purpose is to have the most EV in a given situation, and that we’re adequately bankrolled to be indifferent to variance.

If you subscribe to the idea that poker is a battle over the binds and antes (ToP), there isn’t much money to begin with at the middle of a limit hold’em table. Look at calling the bring-in in a 15/30 stud game; you’ve got 8 players putting in a $2 ante, so there’s $21 in the pot if the bring-in limps. That’s a good bargain for a $5 call; you’re getting better than 4:1. At 3/6 hold’em with a $1 SB, you’re paying $3 for a piece of a $4 pot. This isn’t great odds. You have some incentive to play tight, why risk a lot to win a little? (both ToP and Gary's book discuss this in depth)

Rho posted that “when the table plays loose, you’re supposed to tighten up”. I think this is out of one of the 2+2 books. If everyone is out building pots, a lot of people are making decent mistakes. Given the small ante structure of hold’em, why not wait until we have a very favored hand and only play then? They’re loose, so they won’t notice. We’ll tighten up because they’re loose. Conversely, if you’re at a table that folds too much, why not play a few more hands to steal? They’re already going to fold, so we’ll open our range a bit and take advantage. The good part of this theory is that it takes advantage of the natural inclination of the table. The bad part is that you’re leaving a ton of money behind.

Let’s talk about expectation at the table, and add in a couple things we know. At a no-fold’em table, there might be 6+ people in every pot. In our 3/6 game, that means that the normal pot has $18 in it almost every hand. If you play, you’re getting 6:1 on a call. That’s even more attractive than the stud example, right? Even though these loose-passive players are in a low-blind game, they’re acting as blinds for you. Any hand that has more than 14% equity provides a favorable situation for you in a pot. If you pass on a hand that is better than this, you are giving money away. Since this breakeven equity is a pretty wide range of hands, this concept is opposite of both the theory of antes (the actual ante is small) and the idea of playing opposite of your opponent (we’re going to play loose, too).

Let’s talk position. BobT is the master of position. Ignore his posts at your own risk. Stop right now, follow the links to this and this, and read them. I mentioned that there are likely to be 6 people in the pot in the previous paragraph. If you’re on the button, you’ll know exactly how many and you’ll know about 80% of the potential raises. Under the gun (UTG), you’re guessing. In very passive predictable games, you may know 100% and you can become less positionally aware. There is a small difference between an expert who knows his table and a fish who is playing hands he shouldn’t. Be aware of how good/bad your guesses are.

I’m sure a bunch of people have done hand charts better than I can. Look at SSHE, find Abdul’s stuff, or check the FAQ. What you want are good hands for the situation. AA is good for every situation. You raise with it because they’ll call. Suited aces are good, especially in position. Everyone knows this. The thing that most people don’t know is that you need to learn to raise your good multiway hands if there are a lot of people already in the pot. If you have an equity edge, build a pot. How about we play small-blind 3/6 when I have a weak hand and we’ll play 6/12 when my hand is good? Sound like a good game for me? It is like having a doubling cube at the table.

In a loose/fishy 3/6 game I’m not laying down a pair. I’m not folding 22 UTG. If the pot is going to be 6+ ways, I’m not folding any pair for a raise or two. Sue me. When I hit my set, I’m going to try to build a 30+ BB pot and I expect to win it most of the time.

Post flop, you must learn to jam your good draws and to quit folding your OK ones. It is no-fold’em. Sure, 76s was a suited connector PF. Now, you’ve got middle pair and a BDSD on a J64 flop. You’re not folding this for a bet. You’ve got 6+ outs, and you’re getting about 12:1 on a call. Don’t draw for an inside straight? You do now. Have a hand that is 25% likely to be the best on the end in a 6-way pot, you raise that draw. If these concepts don’t make sense, read the links and then come back and ask questions.

How do you play at a no-fold’em table? You raise more than anyone there; you especially raise PP and big suited hands that no-one else does. You play fewer hands than most, especially in EP. However, you can be pretty loose in late position with your speculative hands. There is no prize for the tightest guy at the table, and if he’s a nit, he may not even be a winner. Stop folding your draws post flop in big pots. Most of all, don’t only play big cards and then complain that they never win. AQo has some equity in a 6-way pot, but not nearly most of it. Look for the fun in sucking out on the fishes rather than looking at every hand as a great opportunity to have your “great hands run down”. It isn’t a hand until all 5 cards are in the middle.

This is stuff that most everyone here knows. For me, it was good to look up the links; I always enjoy re-reading the good stuff. Hope everyone didn't fall asleep in the middle.

I was looking for an Ed Miller post about not folding so much post flop, but I couldn't find it.

Doug
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-13-2008 , 03:55 PM
Nice one DougL!

And the Ed Miller post you were looking for I guess is this one: Why you guys aren't crushing these Microlimit games...

You might also want to link Ed's post about your biggest leak as it nicely explains why not playing those hands with an equity edge in loose tables quickly adds up to a big leak: you get to make those mistakes often.
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-13-2008 , 04:11 PM
This is good stuff, Doug.
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-13-2008 , 04:29 PM
Thanks Mitke,

That was exactly the post I was thinking of. It was fun to re-read. It was also interesting to see how many current Pooh-bah posters have replies in that thread (and the bumps).

The second post I don't remember. I think Ed said many of the thing I was trying to say here; only, he said it better. I guess that's why one of us gets paid to write poker books.

Very nice links.

Doug
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-13-2008 , 04:52 PM
I love this post - I may seriously want to marry it.

What I love is the discussion of poker in more of a macro sense - how to think about the game in general as opposed to the mere recitation and critique of a single hand. It's not that the latter isn't important, it clearly is. However, I think it's these types of posts that can help you make the most out of the individual hand analysis. I think the forum's better when both styles of posts are represented.

I like having some forest to go with my trees.
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-13-2008 , 05:26 PM
lol i thought i was in that thread

awesome doug
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-13-2008 , 05:59 PM
Darn it, I wanted to link to Aaron's 2+2 magazine article, and I forgot. Then, I realized it was older than 3 months. Aaron, is it up somewhere for free or are you saving it for your book?
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10-14-2008 , 04:47 PM
the forum needs more of this stuff. nice one, doug.
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-14-2008 , 06:31 PM
Doug, funny but just from reading and rereading rammin' and jammin your draws on the flop, this I believe has really improved my game(poster Scaramiglio as well). It has made me a lot more aggressive on the flop with draws and hands in genereal, and it does wonders for one's image. I get looks all the time and people say stuff like "man, you 3 bet your King high flush draw, not even drawing to the nuts?" or "Sir, why in the world did you cap the flop? all you had was an open ended str8 draw!"

Well you get the idea.

Also when you play your drawing hands agg like this people get really scared and start giving you presents like free cards. I truly treasure free cards.

Good post Doug
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-14-2008 , 10:32 PM
Frond,

Kit talks about the one or two 30BB + pots of the night. When you've got an equity edge of the field you have the chance to build one of those pots, and you often have more than a decent chance to win it. To me, it gets back to the idea that very good players don't win a lot of pots, but the ones they do are big ones.

To me there is a mental difference, as well. If you nit it up and play premium made hands, you become the hunted. You feel like your big PPs are always run down, your AK never hits (or when it does, some idiot has 2-pr), or some other disaster always happens to your premium hands. You put on pressure, and then only bad things happen; you find out when they raise you on the river. If you're able to push draws, you get to become aggressive post flop. Good things happen to you on the river. I find it changes my whole outlook at the table. Goodbye Eyore, and hello tough aggro player that crushes this game.

People who don't understand these dynamics have a hard time at no-fold'em. If you can run even a little well, this style of poker is quite freeing and enjoyable.

Glad you enjoyed it. I really did have fun going back and reading the old threads. I'm going through the SSSH FAQ right now; there is a ton of great information in the archives.

Doug
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-14-2008 , 11:28 PM
Quote:
Kit talks about the one or two 30BB + pots of the night. When you've got an equity edge of the field you have the chance to build one of those pots, and you often have more than a decent chance to win it. To me, it gets back to the idea that very good players don't win a lot of pots, but the ones they do are big ones.
This is huge. A few hands come to mind when I was playing this week. Several times I had hands that were pretty decent but the pots were really small. There was this one guy at the table who thought that he had to win every single pot so several times I let him when I felt that I didn't have a good enough edge. Congrats dude, you won yet another 2BB pot which 1 Sb went down the chute. Props. I waited and was patient till I had better hands & the pots were bigger. Those I fought for with some good success.

Quote:
If you're able to push draws, you get to become aggressive post flop. Good things happen to you on the river. I find it changes my whole outlook at the table. Goodbye Eyore, and hello Tigger that crushes this game.
Scarmiglio, Hyperrrprank and I have had current and past discussions on being aggressive in poker and how the payoffs are huge. Not just blind aggression but selective obviously(the kind we always are reading about in books). It is kind of cliche' but soooooo true. I am really focusing really hard at playing my draws very aggressively cause let's face it, in these large multi way pots, flushes and str8s win a lot of the times with so many players in the hand.
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-15-2008 , 12:36 AM
a lot of folks imo make the mistake of focusing on a set of stats that is 'correct' to play and in that process they miss the point, which to me is to learn tons of edges to push so that you can play the most optimal way based on the table, the players, the metagame, etc

ie if i have an lp to my right playing atc and the rest of the table is tag i'm going to be isoraising tremendously and might end up 50/40 or something for stats

if rest of the table is tag (first of all i wouldnt be playing at this table anyway, but whatever) then obviously 50/40 would be suicidal and something more reasonable would be correct like 25/20 or whatever

anyway the amount of hands you should play is equal to the number of +ev situations you'll get into!
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-15-2008 , 11:28 AM
First, nice job, this post is why we need digests, so all the slackers who missed it the first time, can come back and read it.

Quote:
Kit talks about the one or two 30BB + pots of the night. When you've got an equity edge of the field you have the chance to build one of those pots, and you often have more than a decent chance to win it. To me, it gets back to the idea that very good players don't win a lot of pots, but the ones they do are big ones.
I remember when I started playing, and I saw someone else win the biggest pot of the day. Every day, I saw someone else win the biggest pot of the day. And I thought, that winning that pot was all luck, and that someday, it would be my turn.

Now, I don't think it is all luck, but it is my turn.

Yesterday, was a good day, but here are a couple that happened, and they weren't all the biggest pots of the day, but they were all bigger than the pots that I would have won years ago with the same cards.

Goofball open raises UTG, a couple of seats later, I three with AJs, it goes four behind me, and the goofball makes it five. A couple of other players are involved, probably because they hate money.

I flop Jxx two tone in my suit. Multiway, I never stop betting, and put in the last bet on the flop, still four players.

Turn, small blank, and I bet, and everyone calls. River Q, checked to me, and I bet, because noone else did, and most of them call again. About 30 big bets, and after the queen hit on the river, I won with second pair.

A bunch of limpers to me, and I pop it with KTs in the SB. The flop is my monotone and A high.

I lead the flop, get raised, 3 bet, and lead the turn and river, and get called by 2 players on the end.

One limper to me, and I raise pocket nines, threebet behind me, and five of us see a 6 high flop. I checkraise the flop, and lead the turn and river, where finally everyone folds for another 15 BB pot with one pair.

Everyone limps to me in the CO, and I overlimp with T9s, the button raises, and 8 of us see the flop of JJ9 with the Jack of my suit.

Checked to the button who bets, about 4 callers, and I call closing the action.

Turn, Q of my suit, and I start planning on how to spend 22K if he has pocket jacks, and I catch a K or 8 of spades.

River, a dissapointing 9, I check and call, and MHIG.

Finally, UTG open raises, two coldcallers, and I 3 with QQ. I think 6 of us see the flop of K99, and I bet, and they all call. Turn another K, I bet, and most of them call. River, something small, and I bet, because noone checkraised me yet, and two of them call. MHIG.

In the meantime, I laid down a nutflush + straight draw on the turn, on a paired board, and my opponent rolled over quads.

Anyway, almost all of those hands that I won, I got in more action on some street than I would have when I started playing, and I think that contributes a lot to my bottom line.
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-15-2008 , 04:12 PM
Quote:
Let’s talk position. BobT is the master of position.
This is nice, but I am not the master. I am just a student. If anyone is the master of position, I think Tommy Angelo is.
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote
10-15-2008 , 04:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob T.
This is nice, but I am not the master. I am just a student. If anyone is the master of position, I think Tommy Angelo is.
idk, I linked to two sticky-worthy posts on position. You wrote them.

Nice hands, BTW. No one in those games had you down as nit or abc tag. I'm sure your Shania was very good.

----

You know, for all the great people who taught me a lot about how to think about and play poker, it seems a shame that I don't play better.
PSA: How many darn hands should I play? (too long, don't read) Quote

      
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