Originally Posted by DougL
First hand, you're 2 off the button and no read of the table? If you had another cold caller, more exciting. Think if you have even a hint of the table being loose/passive, fine. Close fold or really marginal call. You don't have to post in this game? It is strange being in the HJ with no post on your first hand.
Viva Las Vegas! Entry without posting is not so uncommon here unless on the SB or BTN
Second hand, you're facing an UTG open with a hand that most people in this game don't open. Thus, don't 3 bet. You have 3 cold callers "committed" to the pot? Fine. Call.
Really? Suited broadway on the button and most people would not open with it?? By open, do you mean: most people would not be first in?If so, that either seems crazy tight to me or I have been spewing madly.
Here's two runs with UTG on a normal-ish opening range (for 4/8?) vs. a tight range. We'll take your read of the BB being true, so not a 1.5% 3! range and maybe a random hand 5 ways. The two cold callers 2% raising range and 33% calling range. Not a lot of thought, just some ranges. And yet as your analysis shows, this is the rub. The range of just one of the players can be the difference between lightning and lightning bug. So ultimately, my question probably becomes much harder than merely "fold, call, 3 bet". It's a question about assessing ranges in a game where we are brand new to the table.
Equity Win Tie
UTG 30.79% 29.87% 0.92% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
MP1 16.32% 15.12% 1.20% { TT-55, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, AQo-A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
MP3 16.36% 15.16% 1.20% { TT-55, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, AQo-A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
BU 21.82% 20.80% 1.02% { KdTd }
BB 14.72% 14.11% 0.60% { TT-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
Equity Win Tie
UTG 33.23% 32.38% 0.85% { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
MP1 15.88% 14.77% 1.10% { TT-55, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, AQo-A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
MP3 15.81% 14.71% 1.11% { TT-55, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, AQo-A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
BU 20.36% 19.43% 0.93% { KdTd }
BB 14.72% 14.15% 0.57% { TT-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
Make UTG with a really nitty range and you're really sad to build a pot for him.
Sadly, my experience in this room makes this the most likely of the ranges for the UTG raiser.
Equity Win Tie
UTG 36.92% 36.39% 0.54% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
MP1 15.33% 14.40% 0.93% { TT-55, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, AQo-A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
MP3 15.33% 14.39% 0.94% { TT-55, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, AQo-A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
BU 18.25% 17.46% 0.79% { KdTd }
BB 14.16% 13.65% 0.52% { TT-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }