Quote:
Originally Posted by pingu2k4
$532 and its all online. I started 5/10 with $220.
I know its small sample, cant tell, and everything like that, but the game seemed a lot more beatable than i imagined. it felt a lot softer than i thought it should be.
This all depends on you. Pick the player that you have been up until now.
You are a guy who crushed the 40/80 live game in San Francisco for 2BB/HR? Or, are you a soul-owning 2BB/100 3/6 6m player who cashed out for the holidays? If so, here are some estimatates of RoR for you. I'm assuming a 2BB/100 win rate (one of the best 5/T players on the site) and a standard deviation of 18BB/100. I know a few people this good. Most of them have had the odd $1000 losing
session, but you might be up a few grand before that hits. This is the BR followed by your chances of going broke with that BR.
$500 - 54%
$1000 - 29%
$1500 - 16%
$2000 - 9%
Let's say you're just a very good mid-stakes 30/60 or higher player, or that you're just a decent established 5/T winner. 1BB/100, SD 20.
$500 - 78%
$1000 - 61%
$1500 - 47%
$2000 - 37%
Let's say that you're someone who is moving up to a pretty darned tough limit who may miss some of his leaks vs. the regs. You do OK at your local 10/20 and beat .5/1 online well enough. People make a living playing
lower limit than this. Still, you do a good job of finding fish and are +EV after rake. WR 0.25BB/100, SD 20.
$500 - 93%
$1000 - 88%
$1500 - 83%
$2000 - 79%
It all depends on how much going busto will bother you. I would guess that best case, you're going broke > 70% of the time. It may be closer to 9/10. If you want to take a shot and go for glory, no problem. In the grand scheme of the world, coming up with another $200 is no big deal. If you mind losing the money, this is a very bad plan.