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08-27-2010 , 02:04 PM

#26

DosXX

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Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,034

I call with sets because I beat 2 pairs.

Quote

08-27-2010 , 02:41 PM

#27

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by DougL

If Jesse will fold anything worse than an set of K's, you're not really bluffing 2 people.

So that's kind of the crux of my post....she either has a straight+ or air that she somehow took to the river AND turned into a bluff. I think it's way more often the nuts but I can't fold everything or else.....yeah.

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08-27-2010 , 02:48 PM

#28

Pid Koker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,748

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

Just to rehash, I guess what it really comes down to is what kind of metagame has been established between you two, and whether or not you've made a similar calldown in that past that's going to make her think twice about bluffing the river in this spot. Of course, she could realize that and bluff in this spot knowing you know that, but I still think with the third person in the pot here, this is just much more a hand that you can't beat.

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08-27-2010 , 05:50 PM

#29

BeakWetter

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 1,489

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pid Koker

IIRC, the math I did is straight out of TOP.

Player 3 folding and Jesse folding are not independent events.

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08-27-2010 , 07:10 PM

#30

DosXX

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Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,034

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

She never raises 2 pair on the river?

Quote

08-27-2010 , 08:49 PM

#31

Niveous

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 981

Quote:

Originally Posted by DosXX

She never raises 2 pair on the river?

Not that many two pair combinations defend the BB, call the flop, turbo-call the turn, and then get there on the river.

What such hands are you putting her on?

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08-27-2010 , 08:57 PM

#32

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niveous

Not that many two pair combinations defend the BB, call the flop, turbo-call the turn, and then get there on the river.

What such hands are you putting her on?

Exactly. Given the player description and live tell combo it's extremely tough for me to see 2 pair showing up very often.

I'd never fold a set here nonetheless....because I can't fold everything.

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08-28-2010 , 01:39 AM

#33

Captain R

Wot

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 7,574

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeakWetter

I believe she banks on this to happen often enough to make her move +EV.

Only complete morons actually try this bluff. I've never seen a good, winning player try this at live 20, because quite frankly, it doesn't really work. This kind of crazy, protected pot maneuver with a hand that already has winning chances, is not really a good play.

Now, she may not think she's bluffing with worse hands, but that is a totally different topic.

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08-28-2010 , 10:13 AM

#34

Pid Koker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,748

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

Exactly. Given the player description and live tell combo it's extremely tough for me to see 2 pair showing up very often.

I'd never fold a set here nonetheless....because I can't fold everything.

Can you elaborate on the "I can't fold everything" part? IMO, you totally own when you fold this river with KK.

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08-28-2010 , 10:19 AM

#35

asmitty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,633

it seems like the correct answer is to randomly call a fraction of the time with whatever hand you have (maybe doing the second hand thing sklansky talks about) rather than picking hands to call with. she shouldn't show up with hands like 2 pair or 1 pair so her range is (hands that beat sets) and (hands that have negligible SD value), heavily polarized towards the first group. your actual hand is irrelevant.

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08-28-2010 , 12:48 PM

#36

Niveous

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 981

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pid Koker

Can you elaborate on the "I can't fold everything" part? IMO, you totally own when you fold this river with KK.

I've just seen too much stupid **** playing poker to fold top set in a situation like this, even from players I normally respect. Folding a winning hand in a big pot is a catastrophe; if I mucked this set and Villain tabled a worse hand, I would immediately leave for fear of being unable to play with a level head.

Quote

08-28-2010 , 01:09 PM

#37

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pid Koker

Can you elaborate on the "I can't fold everything" part? IMO, you totally own when you fold this river with KK.

If I fold everything I have created a vulnerablity in my game, against which I must defend and be diligent. If I at least don't fold the sets she maybe can't just call call raise blindly and show a profit.

Quote

08-28-2010 , 01:49 PM

#38

Captain R

Wot

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 7,574

You can't fold a set here, because there are a fair amount of hands she is raising for value that you beat. 44, 74, 84, some kind of slowplayed set.

Quote

08-28-2010 , 01:55 PM

#39

Captain R

Wot

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 7,574

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

If I fold everything I have created a vulnerablity in my game, against which I must defend and be diligent.

I really, really do not think about making myself "unexploitable" at all, you've been watching too many OTR videos or something.

Live 20 or 40, you call down because there's X% chance the guy/gal is bluffing/semi-bluffing/spewing, not because of some sort of GTO reason. Live mid-stakes is all about exploitation, don't worry about people finding vulnerabilties in your game or whatever. These people are just not that good.

And the ones that you see try to bluff-raise the river, you take note, and then never fold to them again.

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08-28-2010 , 03:21 PM

#40

Frond

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 5,892

fwiw in the 20 games i have played hardly anyone bluff raises the river.

just sayin

Spoiler:

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08-28-2010 , 06:56 PM

#41

DosXX

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,034

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

Exactly. Given the player description and live tell combo it's extremely tough for me to see 2 pair showing up very often.

I'd never fold a set here nonetheless....because I can't fold everything.

84, 74, K4. Put those in stove I bet it's a call. Seems like easily the type of player who could show up with those hands in the BB knowing a big pot is brewing when you raise limpers from the SB.

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08-28-2010 , 08:37 PM

#42

avoidthe9to5

[x] 9to5 avoided

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,662

*G*
i fold KT QQ 99 there, not even considering folding anything else
this is heavily dependent on what you think her range is on the turn, and river. If she's capable of weird plays, or trying to level you, I do the above because we're priced. If she's not capable, your entire range becomes a fold pretty much

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