your typical 10 handed LLHE game

even mix of regular weak tight, Loose passive and loose aggressive players

ep3 limps in and is called by the HJ and the cut off.
your on the button with red aces and raise.

Both blinds call. limpers call. 6 players for 2 bets. rake is capped. 10.75 sb in pot.

Flop comes 9c8s6d.

sb checks bb bets, the 3 limpers call. 14.75sb in pot.

you have been watching both blinds carefully and know the sb will come along with most 2 gap or better even for a raise. the BB will do the same, is fairly defensive overall and calls flop raises widely.

what to do?

I'd raise now - the value of your hand is much less likely to be affected by the specific turn card as it would be if you had, say, A9 or TT, and you have the ability to get value now by raising. This is a textbook application of the waiting for the turn chapter from SSHE.

62,950,484 games 175.438 secs 358,818 games/sec

Board: 9c 8s 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand ep3: 14.257% 13.04% 01.21% 8210280 764699.33 { 99-55, A9s-A5s, KTs-K9s, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, ATo, KJo }

Hand HJ: 14.984% 12.92% 02.06% 8134639 1298019.42 { 88-55, ATs-A5s, K7s, QTs+, JTs, J7s, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 64s+, 54s, ATo, KTo, QTo+, JTo }

Hand CO: 10.407% 09.10% 01.31% 5726961 824001.17 { 88-22, ATs-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q8s+, J7s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }

Hand BTN: 21.352% 21.30% 00.05% 13410913 30523.83 { AdAh }

Hand SB: 22.394% 20.83% 01.56% 13114801 982084.75 { TT-55, ATs, QJs, JTs }

Hand BB: 16.606% 14.96% 01.65% 9415350 1038367.00 { 99-55, A9s-A5s, KTs-K7s, Q9s+, JTs, J7s, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 64s+, 53s+, JTo }


I would think the turn card is going to seriously effect the value of our hand

I raise here and I don't think it's that close. Keep in mind that in a pot this big, anyone with one pair or gutshot is getting the right odds to call. That's fine, we can't stop them, and a raise won't fold them out except for maybe the SB. But charge them for those draws now and reevaluate OTT and think about how to proceed if BB 3!.

I think you need to adjust your hand range for BB in your stove since you want to only have a range that would call pre and donk flop. For instance I doubt he's donking 55 or A5s here. The other ranges should probably be adjusted similarly. Is anyone with 99 or 88 really just calling on this flop?

This is one of those spots where you have to just strap in and hold on. Someone is going to win a big pot, and so far you should fight for it.

Have you played around with different turn cards and looked at how your equity changes?

aren't the statements in bold contradictory? what am i missing?

i would raise the flop.

He's saying it's textbook as in it's the textbook case of when to raise the flop (there are two hands, TT and AA.) I agree, too.

Your ranges are off. You really think he's donking 53s on a 986r board?

oh, i get it. his wording was a bit confusing. thanks.

Fold, bad beat coming.

No I don't, but it is a possibility.

I included those (there are several) in an effort to be comprehensive and exemplify the effects of reverse implied odds on hands like red AA on flops that allow for multitudes of straight type draws.

In as much we can manipulate ranges until the cows come home. And certainly we can expand scenarios to create a wide variety of arguments. While such argument are academic and may be worth pursuing, usually they distract from the concepts that weigh most heavily on the decision making process.

Yes the turn cards lie at the crux of the decision

I would like to review the AA-TT argument from SSHE could someone please post the appropriate page numbers?

you are referring to the chapter entitles "Two Overpair Hands? pgs 185-189 SSHE

are you not?

yes, that's what he is referring to.

I would just call w the expectation of bet/raising most turns.

One of the biggest differences I see right off is the reverse implied odds. They are not as great in the example. a flush is pretty easy to see when it comes and much easier to avoid paying off. Multiway combination straights are much more esoteric in nature and make for much harder decisions. which you will get wrong more often.

in an case of swapping mistakes we would rather make a small one in an effort to keep from making a larger one. raising and then calling down why regaling huge pot odds has the distinct possibility of leading us into making a huge one.

I haven't yet carefully examined the examples but I am sure they are couched exquisitely by the 2+2 overseers.

Players at these stakes dont go nuts with one pair hands. So it doesnt matter if they have a flush, striaght, set, etc. Your one pair is losing when they put in significant action.

id just raise now, expecting to lose more often than win, but win more than my fair share.

IIRC, most players at these stakes would expert slowplay a big hand, even though this is not a flop you should cbet often.