bravos1 is sweating me. I've been at the table for about an orbit. All I really know is that the BB in this hand took this line against me:

cold call (or limp/call?) preflop
c/c Q83 two-tone flop
donk 8 that brings in a flush
c/f river

I open AK in early middle position, 1-3 players plus the blinds call.

Flop [8-12 SB]: Q86
SB checks, BB donks, I fold.

bravos thought this was waaay too tight a fold, whereas I thought that I had enough things reducing the value of my overcards:

3 more players to act behind me (I'm pretty sure it was 2 callers + the blinds in this hand)
flush draw on the board
Q high flop with a bunch of cold callers

I'd value the hand at a little more than 3 outs. How many preflop callers would you want to peel here?

Let me first say that I don't think it's a situation where I want/need more preflop callers to peel. I don't like peeling here at all, really. Certainly if this were 75 handed I'd "peel." What I will try to do is take pots away from donkers capable of folding when I might only have to beat him.

It's 9-1 and you're in the middle. It would probably depend for me on how the folks behind me play. If they're fit foldy sometimes I continue my aggression here. This type of a board affords a good amount of draws. In the games I play, an EP donk into the pf raiser and 3 other people usually means TPGK or flush/straight/combo draw depending on the player. I'd really love it if you had a heart, but eh.

Out of the 4 players on the flop, you're probably not best. But do the two folks behind you feel good about calling two to the face? If they can fold hands like 99 and 78 and 44 and 10J then I'd raise to get HU with the donker and in good relative position. If either one is tricky or solid, I can see an argument for folding.

I don't love calling here because it gives odds for gutshots and bottom pair hands.

3 outs is a little pessimistic, I'd give it 4-5, actually (6, minus 2 partials for the flush, minus 1 partial for reverse domination to AQ/A8/A6/KQ). You will have the best one pair available if one pair is good, which actually makes AK overcards worth significantly more than single ace or single king overcards added together. So if you had AJ or KJ here, their overcard outs would be worth 1-2 outs IMO, but AK is greater than 2x that.

Even at 3 outs, I think you're good to call. You need 1-3 BB in implied odds for a 3-outer to be profitable, which can easily be done. The problem IMO is the probability it gets raised behind you and you end up paying 2 SB to draw to a 3-outer. I'd be more hesitant to peel if the people behind me could cap the flop on a flush draw, but ultimately, it's still a call for me simply because I think you've got immediate odds to draw to one pair.

aggro player behind = fold for me

I peel closing here or with passives behind

A three outer that can be easily outdrawn on this board.

I have trouble understanding why calling is good here. If someone behind us has a big draw, we're paying two gross bets to draw to a weak hand when they raise. If someone has TPGK+ behind us, we're allowing ourselves to get value towned when they raise. If someone behind us is a good player and sees you just call this board, reasoning that the EP bettor is fishy and you have overs they might try to take the pot away from you. I know I just see what's right in front of my face sometimes, but I don't see why a call is good here.

Three outs includes the probability of getting outdrawn; if you didn't consider getting outdrawn it'd be 6 outs.

People behind us coldcalled our raise, so I wouldn't begin with the assumption that they're good enough to outthink us. I think it's possible, but I'd probably assume they were relatively loose and relatively passive until proven otherwise.

+1 with Cali's post. The math with that board seems to give you a little more than 4 outs on average.

I would have spent more time reading your argument Luck, but your avatar is so distracting and bothersome I couldn't watch the page for more than a few seconds before moving on.

******* ftw...

I really don't think it matters much is the short answer. Folding it is probably fine.

I have no idea what I said, or why it was edited...

After thinking about this, I'm pretty sure Jesse has the right answer here: close, probably doesn't matter much. I do think though that:

* trying to get A8 to fold is not very realistic; if they cold called with it preflop, they're not terribly likely to fold a pair on the flop in a bloated pot.

* 5 outs is really way too optimistic. Let's say all 6 of our outs are clean 100% of the time. If we hit the A/K, 20% of the time, four s are on the board. We'll simplify things and say that my hand's never good when this happens, making those 2 outs worth about 1.6. 5 outs is a discount of 90% from 5.6. You're basically saying that only 10% of the time are we up against a set or a reverse dominating hand or a hand that makes a flush or straight. Against 4 other opponents, I think this assumption doesn't make sense to me.

I'm fine with folding here. If this were 3 handed I might raise given your previous history with the villain to try to fold out some equity behind us or maybe even a weak pair and try to get it HU with someone that can be donking a wide range. 5 handed or whatever that Q and flush draw really hurt your overcard outs and I wouldn't think too much before just mucking.

I think it depends on how many players we have behind us. If this is like a 3 way pot then I think we can value our overcards a lot more (and I'd consider raising against a bluffing type player); if this is like a 6 way pot, our overcards have lot less value, especially with the flush draw out.

In 5+ multiway pots I typically value over cards at 1/2 out each, so I don't think 3 outs is very pessimistic at all (when you consider times we're reverse dominated or someone has already flopped two pair or a set), especially with the flush draw out there.

I think I'm with 925; if there are lottsa passives behind I probably peel in a big pot, but if anyone behind me likes raising I would probably muck...

ETA: BTW, if we do call and someone raises behind us, would it be absolutely ******ed to fold (getting like close to 20:1)? I find I probably would since a raise (especially by passives) usually indicates that my one pair I was holding out for ain't gonna be any good, so I would bail then, even though I'm actually getting a lot better odds than my first call...

GcluelessnoobG

fold and it's not close. players to act behind, Q hi board is easy reverse domination for AK, spikin an ace or king usually means winning a small pot or losing a big one (i.e. med pairs are not gonna pay off on an ace turn/river). heart draw on board eats away two of your outs the times a flush draw is out. you are also out of position, you're not gonna be able to play optimally.