Super easy bet/fold live. Here I'm not sure.

Wut? Bet river. I don't see how a guy's betting range is wider than his calling range, especially with the flush draw on the flop.

I would have folded preflop.

I would have just c/c my way to showdown.

As played, I lean toward a bet/fold on the river. You are very unlikely to get raised. I think you get called down by kings, QQ and JJ. If you check, I think the only hands that bet are ones that have you beat. It is probably close between bet/fold and check/fold.

The only FD in my range for the villain beats TP at this point. Thus, I'm not afraid of him having a FD that won't bet. Honestly, I think you'd induce a FD to bet a decent % of the time with a check. Since people are such thin value bettors online, I'm hoping to induce KQ, KJ, QQ, and JJ to bet. I suspect we make the same money from a couple of these hands and all his 2 pair hands that we sucked out on. You might get a guy to make a dumb play with a small PP. It could be that we make the same money either way, but all things being equal, I'm a bit afraid of a river bluff by a hopeless hand and if the $ are about the same I'll take the showdown.

I keep detailed notes about people who can/can't be induced, so I don't think I miss a lot of value in these spots. There is some style here, so if you're a relentless 3 barrel guy the right answer might be different than if you are someone who induces a lot. Reads make this hand, as with many HU spots.

I was going to grunch this late and my first instinct was to c/r then I scrolled down one and guess what? That is what Dougl said - so this is my first and only for post this thread. nh

if you raise, there are worse hands that will call. Everything better is calling as well. You reopen back up to a 3! in a spot where you have to calldown and fold the river if you miss. Play passively to get to sd imo.

c/c to victory against unknown. fwiw I don't call weak aces against utg opens, dominated range

And that's normally what I'd have done against most known opponents. Nonetheless, I had just resumed play and see a stranger sitting utg. I might also mention that I was up 20+ BBs at the time.

Incidentally, I bet the river and got raised.

Are any of my illustrious colleagues calling?

I meant, in villain's view, since there is a flush draw (that we could have) on the flop, he is more likely to pay off with a small pair. Not that we need to be concerned with him having a flush draw, which I agree with you is unlikely/not really something we need to concern ourselves with.

Well, when we take a c/r, bet, check line, it should be pretty obvious that we have something marginal that we want to showdown. Because if we had crap, we'd c/r, bet, bet with something that has no showdown value. So if villain is thinking, he really shouldn't bluff here, so we really shouldn't be trying to induce a total airball.

I use the term 'induce' to refer to induce a bluff -- you don't really need to try to induce a thin value bet, because those thin value bets you are trying to induce, you're better off betting against with made hands since there is no chance of whiffing.

Against an unknown, I'd bet-call. Live, this is usually a river bet-fold.

I agree. What do you think the odds of him bluff-raising the river are?

nil.

b/f. I need to remember this myself. I played way to aggro last night and v-towned myself all over the place. Arrogance crept back into my game since I was running so good. Don't be me.

I think if you c/r flop, bet turn, the river is never a bet/fold. It's a check/fold.

How does a c/r scream weak ace?

Are there any stakes online that you'd bet/fold? 1/2, specifically, since I know you've played that?

Incredibly interesting spot. PF is a fold.

Time to think about the flop. If we c/raise, QQ/JJ peels flop and turn, likely folding river. 99- folds (or peels incorrectly). KQ prob calls multiple streets (maybe river), Ax calls all the way down, we're getting 3bet by all strong aces/sets/straights/twopair. If we c/c, 99- is unlikely to 2-barrel on this board; QQ/JJ should likely take a free-card on the turn.

So in summary, c/c'ing to induce isn't going to work great here, because a flop call by us screams WA/WB (i.e. pair of K's/A's vast majority of the time). Thus, we likely just give cheap cards to 1-2 outers (for underpairs) or slightly more for stuff like KQ. This board is also decently coordinated, so you're not going to miraculously pick up a bet from 99 if the board ran out AKT43 on the river. Thus, we're pretty much never making any money off 99-. Most of our value will come from hands like QQ-JJ/KQ/hands we suck out against.

Thus, c/raise. If he has JJ-QQ/KQ, he'll bet flop and check turn U/I (maybe 2-barreling KQ). These hands also think it has more outs than it really has, so you make immediate profit from these hands. Given board texture, if we are 3bet, it makes the hand really easy to play too; don't show-down unless you hit a flush or runner-runner fullhouse. I think that, online, even hands like AQ/AJ may not 3bet the flop on such a wet board, so when you're 3bet, you're toast (exception might be something like KT). Plan to c/raise if you hit a spade essentially after you're 3bet. Against an unknown, I'd c/c down and showdown if i hit my 6 (but not planning to put in a raise).

Now, if we c/raise, he calls. Turn blanks. We bet, he calls. If the river blanks again, it's tricky. I don't think QQ/JJ ever calls on the river, KQ super rarely. I also doubt villain ever tries to turn these hands into bluffs on this board. If the board pairs low or pairs the 10, then we can c/c and plan to chop to some weaker aces. Otherwise, c/f must be the most +EV.

So in summary: c/raise, bet, c/f river U/I.

No. There are two spades on the flop.

flush draws don't make up as significant a part of our range as aces and kings. There might be like 15-20 spade draw combinations in our hand (corresponding to no-gap and 1-gap suited connectors) + another 10 from AsXs. However, the other 30 suited aces + >25 nonsuited aces + ??? Kx's easily overtake spade combos. We probably have at least 2.5x more aces and kings in our range.

FWIW, unsuited aces < AQ are not part of my range.

this