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keeping the pot small? keeping the pot small?

02-17-2009 , 08:53 PM
Commerce 4/8...typical donktastic game...very loose passive

I have red AA OTB...two limpers, I raise, blinds and limpers call, 5 ways...(8.5 small bets after rake and tip) all opponents are loose passive.

Flop comes 9 Q K all black with QK of spades...Checked around to me...My thinking was, I was pretty sure my hand was good but I didn't like the board bacause it was so draw heavy. I opted to check to see a safe card, keep the pot small, then bet if checked to on the turn to worsen opponents pot odds...

Comments? Thanks
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-17-2009 , 09:14 PM
My comment is that this was not a good decision for several reasons. First, you're almost certainly ahead, the only hands you have to worry about are KK, QQ, 99, and J10 and there's no reason to put any of the villains on one of those hands. You need to get money in while you're likely ahead.

If you're opponents are drawing, you don't want to let them draw for free. Keeping the pot small will not alter the correctness of any of the opponents call/fold decisions. If someone's on a FD or has a J for an OESD they still have the right odds to call a big bet on the turn. If someone's holding a 10 for the only GS draw or drawing to 2 pair/trips then while they will arguably call the flop correctly, the turn bet will still present them with 7:1 and not getting the right price to call. Of course, giving the free card and having someone improve to better then you is disaster.

Pot control is for NL - IMO.
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-17-2009 , 09:40 PM
your opponents ranges are not well defined enough for you to exercise pot control yet.

bet the flop and then re-evaluate.

plus, often times people will fold any holding that doesnt have a spade, 9, Q, or K after a flop bet. this is a good thing for you.
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-17-2009 , 10:48 PM
You MUST bet this flop for value
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-17-2009 , 10:50 PM
You shouldn't worry about winning or losing this pot.

You should worry about maximizing the dollars you earn in every pot. With that as your goal, you should bet.
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-18-2009 , 12:20 AM
You bet this flop because you likely have the best hand now, and, most important, you don't want to give them "infinite odds" to draw against you by allowing the free card.
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-18-2009 , 02:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DosXX
You shouldn't worry about winning or losing this pot.

You should worry about maximizing the dollars you earn in every pot. With that as your goal, you should bet.
Not totally true. The pot can reach a particular point where it can be shown mathematically that it is higher EV to concentrate on driving out opponents than it is to jam the pot with an equity advantage. The underlying principle is that the increase in pot equity you get from driving vils out of a large pot > equity you get from further bets going into the pot.

Having said that - in this situation bet!!
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-18-2009 , 03:08 PM
seems like a unanimous decision...thanks everyone
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-18-2009 , 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stonecoldco
seems like a unanimous decision...thanks everyone
For future reference,
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...cement-355397/
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-18-2009 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by denks
Not totally true. The pot can reach a particular point where it can be shown mathematically that it is higher EV to concentrate on driving out opponents than it is to jam the pot with an equity advantage. The underlying principle is that the increase in pot equity you get from driving vils out of a large pot > equity you get from further bets going into the pot.

Having said that - in this situation bet!!
In other words you want to win the most amount of money. We're on the same page here
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-19-2009 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SetofJacks
LOL
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-20-2009 , 06:57 AM
If your hand is best after the flop, your four opponents need 26 collective outs to make your hand a money underdog.

Give one a flush and the other a str8 draw, that's 15. If the other 2 both paired the board (with different ranks) and their kickers are different, and the kickers of those hands that paired on the flop, are not the same as the flush/str8 draw players and do not take away any outs of the flush and str8 draws, they have 3 outs each (because they can't use the flush cards of their rank) to trip up or double pair (if neither of their kickers are an ace and will not make the str8), while not reducing the number of outs the flush/str8 draws have, bringing the total outs your up against to 23.

That is an unlikely scenario, and if it is what you're up against, you are still not a money underdog.

For these reasons, as well as the others presented by the posters who recommend betting, and the fact that you need to win big pots to overcome the rake (which is a big hurdle), you have no other choice but to bet.

AA will lose a lot of money from time to time, but I'll be damned if I give 4 players infinite odds going into the turn.

Last edited by UtzChips; 02-20-2009 at 07:08 AM.
keeping the pot small? Quote
02-20-2009 , 02:15 PM
One approach that I take frequently, when I have a vulnerable hand, is to just close my eyes, and play the flop so that the pot is as big as possible. I just decided, if I happen to win the hand, I want to get paid, and most of those players are going to have the odds to draw anyway, so pot size manipulation just doesnt help me win, but if I survive all the outs against me, pot size can be fun.
keeping the pot small? Quote

      
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