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I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB.

04-08-2008 , 02:03 PM
As per the title, I have T9s OTB. The game is nuts, and I'm sitting next to "the hat lady" who has more money than God, apparently. She's sucks, and I'm running bad.

5 limps to me, I raise T9 OTB, blinds call, everyone calls, people without cards call.

Flop is 642

Checks to UTG+1 who bets, everyone calls to me, I shrug and call, maybe 2 people fold.

6 see a turn of

A

Checks to me.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 02:05 PM
It seems unlikely that you take this pot down without showing your cards. I'd take the free card, spike a black ten and win the thing that way.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 02:05 PM
check; you may have forgotten but you have have ten high
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 02:10 PM
My bet would not be to win the pot, obv.

Is it worth cleaning up 6 outs here with a bet?

If I bet KT and Q9 are folding, no?

I checked and thought it was a no brainer, but Kit and I discussed it at some length, and I don't think it's as clear of a check now.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 02:44 PM
With 7 to the flop in a typical passive game, there's a good shot that you are drawing dead. There's also a good chance that someone(esp. UTG+1) is on a diamond draw, so 2 of your outs are tainted. Ax worries me more than Q9 or KT. I'm having trouble justifying a bet...teach me why it's worth doing.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 02:46 PM
I think it is a cehck because

1.) You only clear up outs if they aren't suite din diamonds
2.) A check raise is not out of the question, though it is unlikely
3.) No chance on winning with a bet here (you already agreed with this)
4.) You only have 4 clean outs to a possible winner
5.) Someone may have been afraid to bet their ace on the turn and you are drawind dead
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 02:52 PM
Yeah this is a check. You can't clear up enough outs to justify a bet IMO. Combined with chances of a CR or drawing dead I just don't think it's a good investment of a big bet.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 05:14 PM
By my counts there are 11 big bets in the pot. This means that every out you "cleanse" with your bet is worth about 1/4th of a big bet (there are about 44 cards left in the deck...ish)

So, given that there is an accepted probability of zero that you can win this hand without showing your cards, you need to clean up 4 outs with your bet, on average, for it to be profitable. Given that you could be drawing dead and that the most you could EVER clean is 6, I can't see betting here being profitable.

I'm thinking I simplified this too much, as more money is going in as people call you, but the general idea is sound.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 06:13 PM
You can't clean up outs if you don't have any.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 07:19 PM
a few too many in on the turn for a bet to have merit. don't forget that you're getting checkraised here sometimes and those times will forfeit your chance at realizing any of your equity(unless you're calling the c/r which makes me like the turn bet even less).
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 07:19 PM
nice to see you post a hand for once, though.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote
04-08-2008 , 09:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by James.
nice to see you post a hand for once, though.
I've taken a lot of time off and have been lurking throughout; I can never give up poker for good.

As I said earlier, I checked pretty quickly on the turn because as everyone has said, betting won't win the pot, and I should just try to spike a T (also, there wasn't a FD on the flop, I got that wrong.)

But after talking with Kit, it seemed that it was closer than it originally seemed, given the size of the pot, but in the end, checking was probably still right, I just wanted to generate discussion.

An 8 fell on the river and it was checked around again. 77 took the pot. Not that it matters anyways.
I have Kit's favorite hand.  T9s OTB. Quote

      
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