20-40 live,

Based on a few hundred hands... villain is definitely snug, running average, seems to fast play big hands on the flop, seems to b/f a lot on later streets, and probably cbets flop 100%.

Folded to the villain who opens on the button. I defend 9To in the big blind.

Flop: 673r (4.5 SB)
I k/r/c

Turn: A (5.25 BB)
I k/r, villain goes into tank mode, genuinely debates on folding, then calls.

With the new information, do I fire all rivers now with 9.25 BB in the pot? I think the tank tell from the turn significantly indicates that villain intends to showdown with a mediocre hand, while I probably have a high disproportionate number of bluffs.

your best chance to win the pot is to fire all rivers.

What are you hoping to accomplish with the flop c/r against a snug villain on a 763r board?

Is it the most +ev or least -ev though? Spots like this is pretty gross since I think villain is going to station every river after calling the turn.

I don't mind barreling the river with this hand if I was playing a different strategy, but in this specific spot, I think

1) I have too many bluffs in my range after migrating a bunch of k/f hands into the k/r bucket on the ace turn. 2) I think I received heavy indication that villain is going to showdown.

I think once my turn exploit failed, I should probably give up on most of my river bluffs since there's too many of them. I'm not sure if this logic is correct, but it just seems like lighting money on fire. Now that I think about it even more, I should probably have close to 0 bluffs in my river range after the tank-call by villain.

I figure the best way for me to win with 10 high when I'm not going to fold is to do the betting. I think k/r > donk > k/c > k/f against this specific villain.

Do you not see that this is the worst hand in your range after taking those flop and turn lines? You've dug yourself into a dark hole because you don't know what you're doing. The question of what to do is not on the river, it is on the flop. If your flop check raise is a predetermined part of your range that you want to balance with, that's fine, but you clearly don't know what to do with it after check raising. Therefore it isn't part of a greater strategy.

Well, certainly, you have the highest percentage of winning by putting in max action. But you also cost yourself the most when it doesn't work. And it's not going to work on this flop.

Given he's never folding this flop, and probably not folding a non-A turn either, check-raising or donking the flop is just pissing into the wind.

I also don't CR this flop. I would like it a little bit better if there was a flush draw giving you some fake outs. If the villain check the turn a lot then you will want to CR the flop with your value hands more. In this case, having a flop CR strategy that included made hands and your stronger draws would be ok. You could just peel with some of your weaker draws and possibly bluff some favorable rivers. If the villain bets the turn often, especially on boards like this, then delaying with your value range and bluffs makes sense.

If the button is fast playing his strong hands on the flop then it seems he should have an Ace when he bets the turn a little to much to try to get him off his hand. As played, I would just bet the turn and hope to get him off a non Ace flop peel.

As played, I think giving up makes sense although I might bet a 4 or 5 river...although even this seems optimistic.

As played, fire all rivers. At this point, why not? There are 9 BBs in the pot and he might fold slightly more than 10% of the time.

However, it is difficult for me to say, since this is NOT how I would have played this hand. I'm fine with the preflop call. You need about 3-1 odds to call, and against a tight player, you have that with T9o.

You are going to flop either a 9 or a T almost exactly 1/3 of the time. Those are the boards to c/r the flop with (maybe skipping some that also hit villains' range - those that have an A or a K). If the villain is foldy post flop, add in some flops where you flop a good draw.

You have an inside straight draw, so all the 8s are clean outs on this rainbow board. If villain is tight, pocket pairs much up a decent amount of his range, so your 9s and Ts may not even be clean outs. At around 5-1, you maybe can take one more off on the flop, but I'm OK with folding the flop here. Save your c/r for better flops.

First of all I wouldnt defend that hand so passively. When you decided to play 9To oop you shoulda go for raise preflop. Would be much easier for you to take down that pot on the turn.

Not only have you created a bunch more bluffs, you may not check very many hands intending to raise, further skewing the proportion to "too many."

I think the logic is fine but the read can't be all that reliable over a couple hundred hands. Keep some bluffs, just make some cuts at the margin depending on the river card, particularly board pairs and J or higher.

Preflop: Standard.

Flop: Perfect check/raise. You got a rag, rainbow flop that likely missed this villain's range, and he's on the foldy side. I'd honestly be tempted to check/raise this flop with any two cards provided my image is clean, but you have two overcards and a gutshot. IMO, not check/raising and putting pressure on villain here would be a large mistake.

Turn: Ok, this is where you ****ed up. The turn ace is obviously not ideal, but if we put villain on this range: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,A2 o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T8o+,98o

He will still have no pair, no draw 148/419 = 35.3% of the time. There is 4.25BBs in the middle, and you still have outs to beat better hands (including 4 outs to the nuts). You have a very profitable bluff here if you just bet the turn. Assuming you never hit anything, your bluff only has to work 1/5.25 = 19% of the time, but you will sometimes improve to the best hand so your bluffing odds are actually significantly better.

Plus the best way to exploit villain's wide range IS to bet the turn. The problem with the check/raise bluff here is now you put yourself up against a tighter range (and you're paying more to try to get that tighter range to fold!) When you check, villain may check behind a lot of his garbage, he may even defense check with hands like KK, etc that may've been waiting to pop you on the turn. This is a bad dynamic for you. Bet the turn so villain's whole wide range is exposed.

So to reiterate, villain's flop calling range is usually gonna be much wider than his turn betting range after you check. Utilize this fact and just bet the turn, which is very likely a nice profitable bluff vs this villain.

Notes:

Getting folds from k q j high raise is completely standard

@ilovepoker, thanks for the analysis but villain actually b/3b on the flop

edit: ah I just reread your spoiler #2

You mean barreling off low turns and rivers? Because expecting people to fold overs on the flop is ... optimistic.

Yes obviously fire all cannon. Flop three bet coupled with ace turn is abort danger will robinson tho

Wait what. I thought this: Meant you check/raised the flop and villain just called.

@ilovepoker, I check raised and then called a 3b from villain.

so what is your default mapping of your k/r, k/c, and k/f ranges on this turn assuming you check-raised and called a 3b on the flop? We should have a few bluffs at the very least right? Intuitively it feels right to put all open-enders into the k/c bucket as it has decent equity against a tight range (and I don't want to call a 3b/rather call a 3b with a gutshot), a very few gutshots into the k/r (maybe even with the intention to 4b a 3b) bucket to balance the value raises, and the remainder gutshots/bluffs into the k/f bucket.

Oh ****, well then just ignore my post then.

flop c/r is fine. in fact, i think it's virtually mandatory if you're defending against a button open - his range is going to include so many unpaired Kx/Qx/Jx hands that can't get to showdown if you show some aggression.

unfortunately, once you call the 3bet your range converges pretty quickly to draws and one pair hands such that you cannot credibly rep improvement on this turn card. having checkraised the turn, i do think you have to fire the river and pray he can fold the best hand at least one out of 9.25 times.

I mean. He has an ace

So does definately snug mean he has a tighter button range? If so, then he has less hands that will fold the flop and more hands that can potentially get to showdown.

The hero didn't say the button was foldy on the flop, he said he seems to b/f a lot on later streets. This could mean he is correctly doing so, it could mean he is weak, or it could mean he likes to barrel a lot UIP. this makes me want to wait for the turn to put in action with my value hands and some bluffs.

The hero also said the button tends to b/3b the flop with good hands. Does he also play fast with draws, over cards etc. This would make me not want to get to agro with my draws on the flop.

I agree if the villain in fact has a wide pre flop range and is not overly showdown bound and not fighting back then the flop CR can be good.

Mine too.

I'd c/r 4 bet flop vs lots of players. Like 80% of people I play against are trying to free card me whenever they jam flop (just have like Ak or something equally stupid here) and I want to get in last raise.

Firing the river is pointless. He's not folding an ace after calling the turn.

Also, your sample size seems small and read seems off. Let's say you've played 200 hands, he VPIPs like 20%, which is a moderate to snug live range. That's 40 hands. Maybe he makes it past the flop 50%. That's 20 hands he's made it past the flop. Maybe he's the aggressor half the time. 10 hands? If Villain is bet-folding big streets, it looks like he's not bet-folding TPGK.