Quote:
Originally Posted by Albedamn
A good practice is to establish how many BB's you will make you're bankroll. In you're case, you made it 500BB's. This being said, a good rule of thumb is that if you are down 30% (-150BB), you drop down until you bring it back up to 500BB's.
You should do some reading on
Kelley betting (the link is very simple, and there is tons written on the subject) and hard-core stastical BR requirements. You are taking a "rule of thumb" 500BB BR and establishing a 30% point to drop down, why? Here's a set of questions for your quest for good BR management.
What risk of ruin (RoR) can you tolerate? What are your current estimates for EV and STDev? How do those estimates compare with some of the historical posts on this forum from people with big sample sizes? What does "ruin" mean to you? Does it mean that you'll never play poker again or does it mean that you'll skip dinner at the Chateau this week and go to Chilli's? Is Bella ever going to post the results of her survey (another big sample to sanity check your results)?
The method you propose isn't really a 500BB bankroll. It is a 150BB BR with a 350BB cushion. From the viewpoint of cutting your stakes in half at hitting the 30% mark, you have a 150BB roll in the big game with a 700BB roll behind to play a smaller game. Given your stats, what is your risk of moving down?
All the bankroll stuff assumes your RoR based on playing a given limit to your last dollar; it is figuring your random paths at a given set of statistics. If you're willing to move down, your BR requirements change. Do you know why? The blackjack folks had a game that was invariant with limit, thus they had a big incentive to figure out optimal ways to scale bet vs. current BR size. These same ideas apply to a lesser degree in poker; your game scales differently at various levels due to Darwinism at various limits, rake, etc. Also, your estimators for the underlying statisics converge very slowly and are affected by tilt, your changing skill levels, opponents growning databases on your play, etc.
I'm not taking a dig at you, Albedamn, but it seems kind of sad that a serious poker forum would throw out a bunch of rules of thumb in the one area we discuss that has a very firm statistical underpinning. I was very serious when I asked the OP
Quote:
What would your basis for using "the 500 BB rule" be?
There is real math here, and building a spread sheet with your stats can be interesting. Play around with assumtions on the range of your win rate, STDev, and your desired RoR. Do some searches on this forum and on BJ forums. If you're playing for a living, keeping a 1000BB reserve may be the only sane thing to do. As a recreational player, I have some doubt that even having a BR is required; having "strict BR requirements" and misunderstanding a simple, well documented concept is a poor plan.
FWIW, my 5% RoR point at .5/1 was about 130 BB. That's nowhere near the BR that you are discussing. Do you understand why that figure is meaningful in this discussion (or why not)?
Doug