Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($49)
BB ($100)
UTG ($8)
UTG+1 ($49.50)
CO ($41.75)
BTN ($179)

UTG+1: 43/28/2.9/36; reads: aggressive, sometimes unreasonable raises

Dealt to Hero J Q

fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, fold, BTN calls $2, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1

FLOP ($8) Q 4 9

Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $1, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $1

TURN ($12) Q 4 9 A

Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

RIVER ($12) Q 4 9 A 5

Hero bets $2, UTG+1 folds

ez turn bet, never folding if raised.

bet/call ainec

you need five spades to have a flush, but it doesn't mean you can't bet four...

bet the flop for value
bet the turn for value, calling if raised.

Bet the turn for value after UTG+1 just calls your flop check-raise. I'm not sure what other posters are going to think abouth the c/r on the flop. It gets a second bet into a player who you read as very likely to continuation bet and had the effect of forcing the BB to take two or fold. However, if you're confident of your opponents aggression is it possible to donk and then three bet which would've got an extra bet from the BB (possibly) and one more from UTG+1? Or was your c/r less for strength and more to find out where you were? What were your plans if he three bet you, cap?

villains range on the turn is still wide

it includes alot of gutshots/fd's your still getting value from so bet the turn.

Well, I agree with everyone else about this. B/c.

I do want to say, however, that I am glad you posted this because it is a bit more complex than that. It's actually a weird hand, because X percent of the time you have the best hand and Y percent of the time you are drawing. And under the fundamental theorem of poker, you would want to put in as many bets as possible if you are ahead and as few bets as possible if you are drawing. The problem is, you can't do this out of position, because if you check villain is betting his ace in position and usually taking a free card with hands you beat.

Now, if you were IN position and felt a check-raise was likely, things would be different....

I'm pretty sure this is true of every hand that you don't flop the nuts. But this is an excellent illustration of this very common scenario.

At game speed I just ask myself the following: How's my equity? How often do I have the best hand? Can I get called by any worse hands? So in scenarios like the OP, it's easy to assess that we probably have ~30% equity when we're behind; we definitely still have the best hand a fair amount of the time; and given the board texture and flop action there are obv many worse hands that can call a bet (which is also the same thought process we use to assess that we still have the best hand fairly often).

It's a game theory question more than an equity question, actually. If the villain with an ace won't raise, for instance, it's a different calculation than if he will, and if he will bluff-raise an ace, that matters too.

If this villain raises your turn bet, he isn't bluffing after you've c/r'ed the flop. Doesn't much matter tho since you need to bet the turn anyway.

This is 6-max? I disagree completely. I've been raised by king-high on the turn in the same spot too many times to count.
But that's mainly at 3/6-20/40 so it's possible that there aren't enough spazzes at this level to justify a call down UI if raised.