Live 8/16 Bay101 (full game). Game has calmed down a bit after lagtard goes on incredible heater and leaves the table.

Unknown limps from MP, loose-passive limps from HJ, I raise 99 on btn, unknown BB calls, MP and HJ call.

Flop 943hh (8 sb pot) check to me, and I bet, BB calls, MP c/r, HJ calls 2 cold, I 3!, BB calls 2 cold, MP calls, HJ calls

Turn (943)To (15 bb pot) check to me, and I bet, BB calls, MP c/r, HJ calls 2 cold, I 3!, BB calls 2 cold, MP calls, HJ calls

River (943T)Ko (27 bb pot) BB checks, MP bets, HJ raises!, Hero?

Help on all streets. I think pf, flop and turn are straight forward. Just felt disgusted on river and asked for time, then HJ states '2 pair no good.' Is this a silly fold on river?

This is calmed down?
Looks like the HJ probably has the straight, but I don't think I could fold this, even for two bets, since you almost certainly have MP beat.

If HJ insta says that after you ask for time, then I think that's a pretty big tell (he's overly excited and trying to play it casual).

I think the timing tell on his river raise is important too.

Do you know where the 9h is? Most likely, there is only 1 set left (assuming he won't limp TT pf)

How much do you care about $32?

i would call.

*G*

Pf, flop, and turn are fine. You are way ahead of everyone, the pot is big, and they all seem happy to call raises and reraises. Cool.

Folding this river would be horrible. The only question is whether to raise or just call.

You are behind exactly three hands: KK, TT, and QJ. No one raised or reraised you pf, so KK and TT are not likely (though I know some passive players who will not raise TT). Calling two cold otf with QJ would be bad, but you did say HJ was loose.

If the river had put a third heart out there, I'd say just call. But I think here there's value in raising. You're ahead of most of HJ's range. He might have LOLslowplayed 33 or 44. If he'd call the flop with QJ, he'd call it with K9 or KT.

That said, if you're pretty sure he's being honest when he says two pair is no good (and I know some players I would believe when they said that), I'd just call. That narrows his holdings to 33, 44, TT, KK, and QJ. Even if you rule out TT and KK, there are still 16 combos of QJ to 12 combos of 33 and 44.

I think you have to discount 33 and 44 considerably - why would villain flop a set and then just call until the river? I am really expecting to see QJ of hearts here, but not certain enough to fold. I think raising again would be really bad.

I agree, I think this is a call here. Not much info on the other players in the hand, but in a vaccum, we're looking at nearly 15:1 on calling 2 cold. On those odds alone I think we must call.

The "Two pair no good" comment is a bit disturbing, but you can beat two pair. If he said "Set no good," that might be a bit more of an issue.

Since we don't know the players very well, we're doing a lot of guessing, but based on the betting MP's line seems incredibly strong. 2 k/r and then leading on the turn? Maybe he would do that with the NFD, but it seems more like a made hand to me. His action makes me think AA/KK/smaller set on flop. I would discount KK due to his open limp preflop.

BB playing that passively seems most likely a draw, maybe nut flush draw or 56 for the straight draw. I figure he'll fold the river here.

The HJ called 2 cold twice, both times after MP's k/r. I feel like he's most likely to have a smaller set or exactly QJ here. Maybe KT for top two pair, but I think it's more likely that he slowplayed a smaller set. I have a hard time putting him on any other hands. That could obviously be a leak in my own game. On the turn I could see someone calling 2 cold with QhJh after the T hits, but would he call MP's k/r on the flop with that hand?

Also totally agree with Chillrob. If this is a calmed down game, I can only imagine what the table was like before the crazy lagtard left.

Because he's bad? Not being snarky. I've seen enough LOLslowplays like this that I don't put them past anyone I don't know to be sane. I see some merit to discounting them.

We have to consider BB and MP also. Let's say that Zeke is right and BB has a busted draw and thus will fold either way.

MP led the river having k/r'd the flop and the turn. He obv didn't k/r the flop with anything better than 99. And when he k/r the turn the only way he was ahead was with TT. But he limped pf, and a player aggressive enough to k/r k/r would prob have raised pf with TT or KK. He prob will call either way.

If we expect that only HJ will call, then we need to beat >50% of his range weighted for combos.

But if we expect MP will call also, and that we beat MP, then we only need to beat >33% of HJ's range weighted for combos, right? Risking that extra 1 BB to win 2 BB?

There's other stuff at play here of course, like the possibility MP beats us, HJ reraises, etc., but can't we be more liberal with the raise given MP's presence?

I'm not saying I don't expect to see HJ table a straight. Just trying to see if he and MP have a range that makes a raise worth it.

Edit: At game speed I prob just call. But I think at game speed I lean a little MUBSy, and am trying to get away from that where the situation calls for it.

I think a raise here is terrible, and so is a fold.

I mean, we are probably beat (when live small stakes players raise the big streets, especially the river, it usually carries the obvious meaning: "I have what I consider to be the nuts"). But our hand is too good to fold, and raiser could have just made 2 pairs.

First, I don't think we can get re-raised by anything that we beat.

If we call, MP might also call with 2 pairs or a smaller set, so when we're good, we make (roughly) another BB, and when we lose, we lose 2 BB.

If we 3!, MP is almost certainly folding anything that we can beat, and raiser probably calls (unless we're beat, in which case we probably get raised). So, in this scenario, we win 1 more BB when we're good, and lose 3 BB when we're not.

Seems like calling gives us the better ROI, no?

I probably call here for reasons stated above.

He could have lol'd 33/44.

Pot is huge.

First big pot in about an orbit and a half since the lagtard left the table, you should have seen the other pots when he was there!

Seems like the majority is voting for a call. Definitely need to work on this at game speed, but I tanked for a bit longer and decided to fold. Looking back after the session, w/o considering the shown hands, just felt it was just a ridiculous fold on my part.

QJ, TT, and KK are just so unlikely here. So I raise-call. I'm willing to pay off luckboxes. You'd be surprised how often someone shows up here with KT or something stupid like that.

Just call. Pot is massive. Ignore table talk unless you have some history and are good at deciphering it (probably most people give themselves too much credit in this regard, so best just ignore it).

When the river actions don't fit the rest of the hand, I think we should utilize all the information available.

On the river, if hero had asked for time and villain simultaneously ordered a coke from a passing waitress, then yelled "no wait, a lemon water!" we can probably ignore that he went from an impulsive sugary reward to a more stable beverage with a twist, while maintaining the undermining of the future condition of his teeth.

But as it went down, I do think the speed of his raising and talking actions are real information and body language tells are much much less 'conclusive'.

HJ is loose passive, so he can have all the combos of QJ pf; otf taking two cold with two overs and 75% of an oesd isn't uncommon at all, not to mention if he's got 60% of a flush too. Also if this player plays a set like this on the flop/turn, then he's unlikely to now suddenly raise the river.

The problem I have is not so much that QJ is in his range, but that K9 and KT and possibly 44 and 33 and perhaps other hands are also in there.

I really would say there is almost no chance of him showing up with K9 or KT here, and 44 and 33 would have to be severely discounted. 90% of the time he has QJ here, but the pot is too big to take a chance and fold.

How are K9 and KT dismissed so easily? What I mean is, how can we be so certain that a player who would call two cold with QJ on a 943 flop would not call two cold on that same flop with K9 or KT? That doesn't make sense to me. Hell, K9 is a better hand on that flop.

I think the dismissal of those hands is more about HJ not instaraising the river with them and then saying "two pair no good".

In this stove, I'll give HJ a range that includes a couple hands that beat you and a couple hands you beat. I also included TT for MP, as well as T9.

Board: 9d 4h 3h Tc Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.483% 13.48% 00.00% 36 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 06.742% 06.74% 00.00% 18 0.00 { TT, 44-33, T9s, T9o }
Hand 2: 79.775% 79.78% 00.00% 213 0.00 { TT, 44-33, QJs, QJo }


The pot is 25BB on the river, so you are getting 12.5:1 to call. You need about 7.5% equity. Basically, you have to be nearly 100% sure that HJ is raising with QJ, TT, or KK here. Against a range of {QJ,KK,TT}, you should fold. But against an only slightly wider range of {KK,TT,QJ,44-33}, you should call.

Actually, if you call, MP is very likely to call with a worse hand (unless he is bluffing). Let's say he calls only 75% of the time. This adds 3/4BB to the pot. Now you are getting 12.875:1 to call, needing only 7.2% equity to break even. This means you can call against a slightly tighter HJ range of {KK,TT,QJ,44}.

In summary, the pot is so big that you should not fold.

Also, for those thinking of raising against a wider range, you probably don't have enough equity to do so (especially since you would have a hard time folding against a cap).

Board: 9d 4h 3h Tc Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 16 0.00 { KTs-K9s, QJs, KTo-K9o, QJo }

I didn't see anything about instaraising the river. But either way, his behavior and his comment, I think they depend on the player. Some players I know wouldn't say that without a monster, but I know others would say that with ****. (And if he thought we had 2p the whole way, our 2p would be no good if he caught his KT.)

I agree that if we know this player's behavior is likely to be a legitimate hand, it's better to just call.

If not, well, it looks like if a raise is positive, it's probably marginal. So I'm starting to lean toward the "just call" crowd.

I don't think most players would raise two pair on the river against two other players who have basically been representing sets since the flop.

The problem is that this theory proves too much, because if the player put his or her opponents on sets, he or she would have folded QJ.

We have to assume from this action that either (a) this is slowplay or (b) this is a player who only thinks about the absolute strength of his hand.

After MP led the river, HJ did raise fairly quickly... at which point the 'wtf' line came into my head and I asked for time.

I just could not imagine the loose-passive HJ raising the river with 2 pair that quickly with me left to act behind him having shown so much aggression up to that point. At game speed, I did not even consider 44-33 in his range based on the flop and turn play.

Great point. I think HJ would definitely fall into (b) from my experience with him up to that point and the few rounds I played with him after. He would limp any two connected cards, and peel constantly with gutshots and any piece of the flop/turn.