I've enjoyed many of the posts on this forum. I know this hand may not seem complicated to many of you, but I haven't posted too many hands in the past, so bear with me...

Hustler 8/16 w 1/2 kill game. Kill is off.

Pre-Flop: UTG, UTG+1, and a MP player limp. UTG is a middle-aged Asian gentleman and UTG+1 is an older caucasian regular named Fred who plays loose-passive.

I have AdAh on the button and raise. The SB folds and the BB calls. There are 5 players and ~10 SB in the pot.

Flop: 9h7c3d. BB checks. UTG bets. Fred raises. MP folds. What do you put the UTG and Fred on? I may be beat, but I will typically be ahead in this situation so I 3-bet. Furthermore, if it gets 4-bet (capped in SoCal), I can see where I stand much more easily. The BB folds. Both UTG and Fred both call. There are 3 players and 9.5 BB in the pot.

Turn: Qd. UTG checks. Now Fred bets. Once again, what do you put Fred on?

At this point, I can either (1) Fold, (2) Call with the intention of calling again on the river assuming Fred bets, or (3) Raise (and likely get UTG to fold) with the intention of checking behind on the river (?) and folding if Fred 3-bets.

Folding seems insane, and calling is problematic because it allows UTG to stay in the pot at a fairly cheap price if he is behind or still drawing. Raising seems to be the best option to me, and I do so. Fred calls. The pot is heads-up with 13.5 BB in the pot.

River: 9s (Final Board: 9h7c3dQd9s). Fred once again bets. The only hand which seems logical given Fred's playing tendencies is Q9, given that he's bet into me 3 times and called both my flop and turn raises. Furthermore, I think my hand - a big pocket pair - is very well announced at this point.

Do you call? With 14.5 BB in the pot, I only need to be right about 7% to make this pos-EV. What odds do you give me to winning? I know making great laydowns in a big pot is not the way to make money in Limit Hold'em, but I don't think this is one of those times...

As played, I would call the river and expect to lose.

i would most likely raise the turn but,as played,i def call river

Turn call is fine, donking is strength, but a diamond draw just appeared, so he probably has something stupid like Jd9d and picked up more outs, so he can't resist betting even though there is little chance he is ahead after the flop action.

I play it the same and I cry call the riv b/c I don't like folding overpairs in 15 BB pots HU for one bet closing the action. T8dd, 86dd, 87dd, etc. are all possible (if optimistic) holdings for him.

nah not folding

As played I would definitely call the river.

On the turn the question for me is what does Fred's turn donk mean? Fred's raise on the flop could mean top pair with a good kicker, but the turn was an overcard to the flop. I would not expect most loose, passive players to donk the turn with second pair. It is more likely either the turn improved Fred's hand, Q9 or something crazy like QQ, or Fred flopped a set or two pair. Against most loose, passive players, I would assume that I was behind most of the time. If you are behind, I would not worry about getting UTG out. Just call the turn.

I put Fred on a set of 3s or 7s. That explains why he donked the turn. What it does not really explains, is why he did not reraise the flop. He could also have 79s or Q9s.
One or the other, based on the action, you are behind on the river for sure.
I know the pot is big but the way I see it, no point to throw away another $16. Just my 2 cents.

I'm not sure about the turn raise, but I don't hate it. Fred's weakest holding on the flop is probably an OESD. Depending on how passive and mubsy he is, I'd be surprised to see him just raise top pair on the flop into a pre flop raiser.

After he donks the Q, its looking more like Fred flopped 2pr or better (which he has totally butchered so far). We definitely are not folding the turn, but I'm not sure that raising to force out the other player when we are probably behind is the best play. Again, I don't hate it as Fred is either to passive or too expert lol slowplaying to 3! the turn.

Regardless of how we've gotten to the river, we should probably call. His river bet might be a desperate bet at a counterfeited 2pr or (unlikely) busted draw.

I agree with your reads. If Fred were more aggressive, he might have T8 or T 8. This is only possible if the "loose passive" read is off the mark. I don't see a loose passive betting the river with a missed draw.

More importantly, if it was correct to raise the turn to get UTG out, it has to be correct to call the river. If you think folding the river is correct in a pot this size, then you shouldn't have raised the turn.

Thank you all for your comments.

First thing: I realized I shouldn't have mentioned Q9 in my post since I should let you guys make your own suggestions without giving my reasoning first. I'll remember next time...

The suggestions some of you have made about an OESD on the flop or a flush-draw picked up on the turn make a lot of sense in retrospect. I did think briefly about a flopped set on the flop (especially when he donked the turn), but I think Fred, a straightforward player, would have 3-bet a set on the flop.

In any case, as I was deciding whether to call on the river, I announced to/asked Fred: "Really, you have Queen-Nine???...Okay, I call." He shows that exact hand (suited).

BTW, I appreciate all of your suggestions about my turn play. Situations on the turn, like that which I encountered on this actual hand, occur all the time. In retrospect, I agree with the majority of you that my raise on the turn was probably suboptimal, given that driving out a third player is less important of a factor than the fact that I am likely behind.

If the flop had played differently (say checked to me/I bet/call/call) with Fred then donking the turn, I could read Fred for just a lone Queen in that case, which would then have made raising with my bullets a much clearer decision.

i think he has set. Tough fold butif he had two pair on flop or trun , he just boated. If he only had nine, he just tripled. Just cause he is a lag doesn't mean A[he got lucky]B [even donks get hands]. It also depends on ur bankroll. I tend to play at my maxium level , every bet is percious lol. Very intersterd to see what happened.

As a GENERAL rule in Hustler 8/16 (a game I play in a lot), if you see aggression on 2 streets, it's got a pair beat. So I am calling the turn donk and hoping to get a cheap showdown.

instead of putting opponents on a hand, or saying, 'i think he has', shouldn't we be setting up / narrowing hand ranges?

+1

I've seen a lot of "I think he has specific-hand" posts in the forum lately. That's a bad way to approach the game.

PF: Good.

FLOP: Good.

TURN: I hate these spots with an overpair. My tendancy is to raise to blow out the other opponent in the hope that it gives me a few more counterfeit outs. But this also depends upon how likely it is that I'm up agaisnt a set here. Does Fred raise a set on the flop or does he go for the expert slow play? If he is typical LP player who will wait to the turn to raise his flopped set, you gotta put him on TT-QQ, 97, 93s, 73s. Does Fred raise Q9 OTF? Really? I think you can take TT-JJ out of his range.

That leaves 3 combos of QQ, 9 combos of 97, 2 combos of 93s, and 2 combos of 73s. Meaning that we're ahead of 2 of 16 combos on the turn.

When the 9 falls on the river, that leaves 3 QQ, 6 9-7, 1 97s, 1 73s. And Fred leads into you again. Meaning that you're ahead of 9% of his range. And that is discounting flopped sets and ignoring that fact that he leads the river into a paired board.

I think you're toast. Calling would be going a street to far, IMO.

Unless we know that Fred will never bet a pair +FD, I'm giving Fred a little wider range on the turn. His 9/10, 9/8/ 9/6, 9/J etc, may have just picked up a FD. Most LP Freds that I play against are not going to lead this after getting 3! OTF, so I discount these hands, but they are still a possibility to me because he has chosen to Donk instead of C/R.

With this in mind I want to invest one more bet otr for a showdown, not expect to be good often, but expect to win enough to justify the call.

Upon further review I definitely do not want to raise this turn.

Against a normal bad player that isn't super passive I like the turn raise. If F is very passive (only you can tell) we are very rarely good on the turn and we probably need to improve.

On the river, it's your call. There are passive players that NEVER bluff (meaning 0%), against those you can fold. That said, we improved and beat all two pairs so (if) against a more common villian we need to call (and adjust our notes as needed).

I'd call the river and expect to lose. If the turn were HU I think it's a very close decision and I would probably call and bet the river if checked to; with a third player in, I like the raise for exactly the reasons you stated in the OP.

Based upon OP's read of Fred as loose-passive, we have to assume that Fred is value betting a made hand here and not a draw. Especially since he's donking into the flop 3-better. This would be a stupid way to play a draw, giving us the chance to blow out his overlay (and perhaps give us counterfeit outs).

If the river paired MP(7)/BP(3), I would call down. But pairing TP is not the counterfeit we were looking for, IMO. A LP isn't bluffing us on the river because he isn't betting a draw on the turn.

Contrarily, maybe Hero needs to reconsider his read on Fred. Because while an agressive player will raise TP3K on that flop, into the PFR, a loose passive generally will not. Too many bad things can happen and fear triggers their passivity, not aggression, IMO. Q9 makes sense here only if we have a more agressive read on Fred. I don't expect a LP to show up with Q9 here because an LP doesn't raise that flop into us.

When the loose.passive donks ott I wouldn't raise - I'd just get to SD.cheaply and that involves calling.down.