Hapless hero has 77 LP and limps after 3 players and there are 6 to the flop. Very passive woman in front of me (not the yaaw).

Flop: (5sb) 7 3 4 (6 players)

Blinds check, woman bets, one calls, I call, blinds fold.

For discussion: Raise my set here? I am dead sure that the woman has a flush and I have 7 outs to a FH on the turn and 10 outs to a FH on the River.

Pot has 7sb and I have 36% chance to make a FH by the river.

Who raises here and who calls? Is this an example of pushing an edge here?

Before you say it my read is not too narrow; The woman would just not bet w/o a flush here. The second player might have a non-nut-flush or a flush draw.

If my read is wrong that is a different type of error.

If its true that your equity is 36% then raising here is ok as long as it doesnt push out the other player. If you raise and fold the non-flush player then your equity will increase in total but decrease in relation to the player with the flush HU (I think). Therefore, if there was four players in the hand (you'll put in 25% of money to win 36% of time) a raise is automatic with this type of equity but with only three players the margin is smaller so a call is ok. Remember if you dont fill up on the turn you do get an extra three outs but your odds are reduced so calling and keeping the third player around chasing makes sense because your hand has some showdown value already (dispite certainty of read) and with the added investor improving both the turns effective pot odds for you and the implied odds. I call both to keep non-flush player around (tough for him to call two (3 bet by initial player) after flop action on that board with something like 88) and to protect myself from having to call a three-bet in this spot.

Even IF she flopped the NUTS your equity against AKhh is still way too big in this 6 way pot to JUST call. Thus, build a pot and raise. Nvm the fact that she could very well have hands such as ah7x, some weird two pairs, a lower set etc etc.... Which you also have CRUSHED. raise and it's not even clooooose

against most players yes, but she is not betting 7 and A - If I raise we are losing the blinds for sure and we are 3-way - most of the time it is a raise here but I am willing to bet money that she has a flush already and I need a FH to win. I think extra money going in is about even money? 0EV?

Your read has talked you into how you are playing the hand. Go with your read.

The only other factor is how high you think her flush is. If she could have a low flush, a raise could scare her into calling/checking the turn. Do you want that for if you do fill up? My assumption is you want her to continue to bet thinking she has the best hand even if you do fill up. Against most opponents this is an easy raise, but you will probably lose future money, if you fill up, and had raised on the flop, against this opponent. That is, of course, if your read is correct.

thx

I saw a video online and part of it was to make an assumption and then act on that assumption with a goal to improve you assumptions. If I put her on a wider range here then a raise in order - I do not think that I am slowplaying the best hand but I think that I have the best draw.

A raise might get her to check the turn but I really do not want a free/cheap card here. I want to fill and then raise in position - that is assuming that she still bets if a pair drops.

Exactly.

I think you should raise anyway. Your equity is good enough to do so, plus if you're so sure you're behind, you might be able to take a free card on the turn.

Will this lady 3! a non-nut flush here?

Edit: just read the part about you not wanting a free card. Why wouldn't you? If you're so sure you're behind, you have the opportunity to play this hand as you would a draw.

SD, the key here is him going with his read. It doesn't matter what his equity is in the pot if he is 100 percent right she has the flush, 100 percent right she would shut down if raised, and 100 percent right that she could shut down on the turn and not give him any money on future streets, especially if the board pairs. This, to me, is one of those situations where it doesn't come down to just the math of the situation. He is playing a player tendency, in addition to how to extract some extra value he wouldn't otherwise get, if he does get there. Against the vast majority of opponents a raise on the flop is the correct play, but this is part of teaching yourself a read in limit hold em. It's extraordinarily hard to get a read from someone on the flop, but it becomes exponentially easier on the turn. I like his thinking about how he's trying to play the hand in this particular situation, even though in most situations it loses value. Even if he doesn't fill up by the river, I still think it would be incorrect to fold, even going with his read.

I don't think anything you're saying here disagrees with what I posted. If he's so sure she has a flush, he has a 36% chance of making a hand that beats her by the river. There's still a lot of info I don't know about her: whether she would keep calling if the board pairs, whether she would raise big streets, whether she would 3 bet right now if she had a non-nut flush, etc.

But all that being said, the math always plays into the decision, just as much as player tendency does. In fact, his math is affected by the player tendency: he knows she has a flush, so he knows his hand is behind. He should STILL raise with a 36% chance of making his hand because he's in a 3 way pot and there are other people left to act after him.

In a hand like this where your equity changes so drastically on the turn, I'd rather just get money in when I have the right amount of equity to do so. Sure, he doesn't win if the hand ended RIGHT NOW. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't raise.

i'd raise the flop. multi-way it's an equity raise since you have the best draw to a full house. it also means you can take a relatively cheap showdown by checking back the river. if the blinds have the Kh/Ah they will probably call which just pads your equity even more.

as an aside i think these threads are horribly dumb. it seems like every hand you post is just a giant cooler or some hand where you played passively and want to show that you got it right. why don't you find a couple of hands where you missed thin value bets (and no, betting top pair on the river, or a set on a 3-flush board, is generally not a thin value bet.) "how to play against opponents who only bet the flop when they have the nuts" is not a difficult or particularly important skill to develop in the grand scheme of things.

you are correct that "if your read is off, it's a different problem" but it's a much bigger problem than the one in this thread, perhaps by orders of magnitude. it evinces an attitude of MUBSiness that will just paralyze you.

SD, does it help you if I say I would actually raise this hand here? I don't tend to care about player tendencies until the turn.

To me, the case for raising the flop (against this player) is that I want to know if I will get 3 bet by this player. I want to know whether they do have the nut flush, as it will make the hand easier for me to play from the turn onward. If the person doesn't have the nut flush, they will probably shut down to your raise on the turn and retreat into check/call, if she is as passive as he says she is (it would be very interesting if she called the raise, and then donked a non-heart, non-pair turn, though). If she does retreat, your best play is to probably check behind, and then call the river if you don't fill up. That is not a line I enjoy taking, though.

I personally think she does NOT have the nut flush, as there is a caller between us and her. I think it is likely this player is holding the Ace of hearts or one of the inside str8 flush draws. Would your goal be to drive this player out, or keep this player in? Do you think this player will fold the Ace of hearts to heat? Or are you trying to build value from this 3rd wild card player?

First, I want to keep the third player in. But he's already called one bet on the flop, and if villain 3 bets, 90% of the time he's calling again. That's just what players at these stakes do: they call any number of bets once they've put money in on the flop. In that case, Mike should actually cap it.

Also, as smitty and I mentioned earlier, we need to be cognizant of the fact there are still two other players acting after us that might take two cold to the face. If they have Ah or Kh they're calling, and thusly adding a significant amount to our equity.

There's nothing wrong with raising/capping this flop and then checking the turn assuming she definitely has a flush. Assuming Mike's read is right, we have the best draw, and we can play as such. In fact, if we check the turn and the river pairs the board, she might bet into is and give us the opportunity to raise the river.

Also, if Mike is sure she has a flush, mathematically there's no reason to call the river. Mental health/sanity wise there may be.

It seems your issue comes down to the fact you don't like shutting her down. Why is this terrible? By putting her into call down mode you're actually forcing her into making mistakes by missing value with the best hand. If she has a flush and we get to check through the turn unimprove that's a huge coup.

I know the caller will definitely call the raise, and most likely the cap. I don't know what the blinds will do, and don't really care about them until they make a second decision on the hand. I personally would raise her, and if she flatted me on the flop and checked the turn, I would bet. If I don't improve, and I can get them to check the river, I will check behind expecting to lose. In a lot of these situations in 4 bet cap rooms, I will cap this flop happily. How comfortable would you be capping this in a 5 bet cap room?

So, if she flats your raise on the flop, then checks the turn, and you check behind, will you call her on the river unimproved if she leads? I feel like I'm just blabbering on and on about something that doesn't really apply to how I would ever play the hand, so I apologize if it feels this way.

In a 5 bet cap room I'm slightly less comfortable because it increases the chances she bets into me on the turn if it doesn't pair the board. On the other hand, she might bet into me if the board pairs, too, because I doubt she puts me on a set based on my action because players like herself probably don't play sets that way on these coordinated boards. As such my comfort level change is rather negligible.

The question is "against a flush, do we have the equity to raise this in a 3+ player pot?" And the answer is yes.

If I had the read that the only way she ever bets this flop is if she had a flush, then no, I would not call this hand unimproved on the river if the action went as stated.

Of course, I've never had that read on ANYONE as far as I can recall, but that's a different issue.

+1

tbh i have no idea why mike plays poker, it cant be for enjoyment.

i also dislike the fact that he's never really attempted to change or get better in years. its frustrating trying to teach those who refuse to learn.

This is like the only response I actually read. I threw up in my mouth when I saw you were considering just calling down in this pot, on that flop, with that hand. Raising isn't even a debatable point.

Refuse. That hurts. Normally I would raise here and reraise. But, I decided to call here and you don't like that. I understand.

I know the "right" play but chose not to here.
You don't need to insult me here.

Maybe I should not try and think about it.

Raise if I fill up. Now, I think she has a flush. What is the risk if I'm wrong?

I guess we will never know.

It's OK to put money in without the best hand.

mike im trying to help you. we all are. try and listen.

I was listening - I gave my reason for a call vs a raise. Obviously, I was wrong on this and that is why I asked.

So, you are saying even if I think that she has a flush since I have a set and 36% chance to come out ahead that I need to raise her.

If my read is wrong and she does not have a flush then I am costing myself money.

I usually raise in this spot but this time I read her as having the flush - I was sure. Does that matter?

Thanks

A concept that I am working on. It is about pot equity and I figured 1/3 here and 3 people. But, there were two behind me that might have stayed in. I doubt that the would call my raise - so we are back to 3 way ~~~ 0EV.

I just don't get it.

Mike: can you ever envision a situation where you are ahead of the villain on the flop but would lose if the turn and river were not dealt?

If I fold the flop I would lose but that is not likely if I think that I am ahead.

Now I'm really confused.

I'm trying to understand. Play the range not the exact two cards (flush). If I play her range given that she is not so passive as to bet more than a flush I need to raise. I would like the players behind me to fold a baby heart. BTW I do not have a heart - my bad for not giving my suits. Then play on from there. If another heart falls and no pair then my hand is dead. If the board pairs I have the best hand unless there is a straight flush and I am not considering that (guy had 6 high SF eariler).

If the board does not pair I need to decide on the river when we get there. Hard to fold a set.

So raise the flop. I have top set and 35% to improve to a FH if behind.