Live 6/12, nothing spectacular

Folds to BTN who raises, I 3! AQo in the SB, BB calls, BTN calls.

BB is a passive and straightforward player. BTN is a decent player (probably better than me, but that's not saying much). He's positionally aware, so his PF raising range in this spot isn't automatically narrow, and he does have a capping range. If he's the aggressor in a hand, he tends to just keep firing flops and turns, and sometimes checks back the river. He also seems to be too foldy when faced with more aggression imo. I think he assumes my 3! range is pretty solid here.

Flop (3 players, 8 SB after drop) 855r
I cbet, BB folds, BTN calls

I think the cbet is standard, but assuming we don't improve, is this a spot where I might need to bet all 3 streets? I think he'll fold AK unimproved, and honestly I'm not sure if he'll just call down with 99-JJ, especially if overcards come to those pairs. I know I'm only looking at parts of his possible range right now. As played, I feel like I have to fire almost any turn card.

I tend to be spewy in spots like this, and I've been known to fire multiple streets when I shouldn't have, especially OOP. I'm wondering if this situation is one where betting each street might be something to consider, but that plan might change a ton on the turn card and action.

I'd expect him to peel almost his whole range on this flop, even though you describe him as "foldy." Any history with him you have would help a lot. There are players against whom I'd fire 3 streets for value on a board like this depending on the runout. There are players who like to delay raises for the turn when heads up on dry boards. Against them I'd donk check this turn and probably showdown. I don't think he has AK or 99-JJ, but you did say that he respects your preflop 3bet so maybe he does have an overpair. Though those pairs are vulnerable to overcards which is a reason for him to raise right away on the flop, which in turn is a reason to bet again since he'll be weak.

You never have to fire any turn card. Bet when you think you have an edge.

Since I don't have a read other than "decent" I'm checking most turns and probably showing down, betting out if I improve.

Easy turn bet. Getting 10:1 on such a dry board, almost all villains are going to call the flop with their whole range, you're usually ahead here.

Sorry, should have clarified the "foldy" comment. In spots like this where he faces more agression, he's always peeled the flop. He gets foldy on the turn from what I've seen. All the history I have with him comes from the handful of hours where he was at my table prior to this hand.

Good point. My thought that I have to barrel the turn came from 2 things. First, I expect him to peel the flop with everything. Second, if I check I think it makes it too easy to read my hand.

Yeah this is basically what I was thinking, you just summed it up better than I did. Plus what hands do I 3! PF, bet flop and check turn on this board? I think villain could easily pin me on AK/AQ, but maybe I'm giving them too much credit.

I'd fire turn for value as well, unless an ugly card (any King, for example), spikes.

I'd check river UI. Be careful if you only take this line with Ax, though, because it's easily exploited. If turn and river run out low, you may have an ace high value bet.

Reading your description of the whole situation, I get a sense that you feel you are behind and you are bluffing. This is not the case if his range is wide on this board, your bet is for value.

You know his tendencies better than us, but he probably puts in a raise on the flop with almost any pair.

Fearing that a check may give away your hand at some point isn't that big a deal unless he's very bluffy, and in that case inducing a bluff on the river may be the way to go.

You don't have a pair but just take a deep breath, everything is going to be alright, you'll win pots with it.

Imo, this is an good example of when poker starts to get fun. We are now playing poker!, we can even bluff often!

Exactly.

And heck, your equity is very good right now against a light button open w/ a capping range:

Board: 8h 5d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.558% 34.03% 03.53% 13173047 1365911.00 { 99-22, AQs-A2s, K5s+, Q5s+, J8s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A2o, K5o+, Q5o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 62.442% 58.91% 03.53% 22806052 1365919.50 { AsQd }


You do still have to worry about PP's that BTN didn't raise flop with (and could be waiting to do until the turn), but overall, you're in good shape, and there aren't a lot of turn cards that can come that severely hurt your equity (though a King here would suck).

I posted this hand late last night, so my wording might not have been very good. I actually agree with you Chasqui, and I actually did think I was ahead (at least up to the flop). I felt my flop bet was for value, and I planned to lead the turn, again for value. As jdr pointed out, I feel like a K is a bad card for my hand (I admit I have not done the stoves yet, so I could be totally wrong here), but i think I lead out anyhow since, if he's thinking about it, a K could very well hit my range too.

I guess the question to fire the river can't be determined yet, so my question is probably premature. I think a river bet would be dependent on the turn action.

I find that I typically will raise with hands like this and just keep betting more than I should, thinking that I have to win by having the villain fold and thus defaulting to aggression, and forgetting that we get to win sometimes when we get to showdown too. Starting to think through spots like this is new for me, but your comments about playing poker and maybe inducing a bluff on the river are much appreciated.

Jdr, thanks for the stove. I'll go through it more on my own later when I have more time. My instinct makes me think that a K or a J are bad cards, and maybe a T. I think I'm leading with those cards though given the action so far and then reevaluating on the river.

Are you worried that this villain has recognized that you will just barrel off every time with Overcards when oop in this spot? If that is the case, I think checking the turn is ok to induce a bluff from him and call down ui. You loose the minimum when behind. get to showdown on this dry ass board and induce some bets that never would have called.

Let's look at our checking range on the turn. How often are we folding that range? Without hands like this in your checking range you'll be folding a lot. Also look at your bet folding range on the turn. If you're bet folding hands like this you'll be bet folding a lot.

Also I think that stove leaves out too many 8s and 5s, though op didn't say just how wide the button opens.

I know that balance is overrated at these stakes, but we have a decent opponent that could very likely beat up on our checking and bet folding ranges.

You need to give a rough idea of BTN's range here. Stealing ranges vary wildly at 6/12 so he could be opening 10% here or like 80%.

I would not barrel off without understand why you'd do so. You'd do so when vilain's range is filled with A9o and KTo and QJo that he won't fold because zomgovers. If he's folding AK UI by the river, you have no value betting UI.

Especially if he had a capping range.

Yes, I know I need to do a range analysis. Haven't had time yet. I understand your point though, and I think I started to figure this out after I posted the hand.

Can you explain this part? I think I'm missing something. Isn't it good if he folds AK? Or do you mean if he's folding AK UI, he's folding worse UI, so our value bets won't get called by worse hands?

He means that.

If you have AQ high and he's never calling river w/out a pair, then your bet isn't for value.

If he's calling river w/ any piece, then it's not a bluff.

Since these are the only two reasons to bet (value from worse / folding from better), then your bet serves no purpose, and needlessly puts 1 BB at risk.

Thanks, that makes sense.

*g*

Fire the turn and check to induce on the river. What is his capping range? I'd think AK is in there. 99-JJ seems like something he would raise on the flop with, but either way I'm going to showdown HU against this guy.

I'm with the Cap'n here. Against 2 villains, I c-bet this flop 100% and double-barrel BTN on the turn. If both call the flop, I check. If BB's call means that he has a piece and is showdown bound, then I c/f to a bet from BB. Either multiway or HU. If BB will peel the flop and then fold the turn, I c-bet the turn heads up against BB (but don't love it).