5/10, 10 players

Villain 1 (MP3) has two modes: decent TAG mode and bored/tilt mode, the latter in which he builds pots and/or plays any kind of crap. He is in decent TAG mode right now.

Villain 2 (BB) is a big donator, ATC kind of guy. Gets involved with any piece and gets to the river often with any pair or draw. I don't have a solid read on his aggression, but I don't think he's too tricky.

Hero's image is tight.

Reads on other specific players available on request.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 folds, MP3 3-bets, CO calls, BTN calls, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls (?), UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls

Flop: (25.5 SB) 7 4 7 (9 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero ...

What's our action and plan?

Misread hand first time. You are getting insane odds to call. I'd throw in a call and see what happens behind.

OP's facing a donkbet. He can't check.

This is a really stupid spot where I think you should fold given that we'll get sandwiched for a bunch of bets a lot of the time, but in real time, I'd call and pray.

Grunch.

If MP3 is in decent tag mode, can we say his 3! range is prob something like {TT+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+}?

Let's say BB could be betting an OESD, FD, 7x, or 4x ... {77,44,A7s,A4s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,K7s,Kc6c,K c5c,K4s,Kc3c,Kc2c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,Qc8c,Q7s,Qc6c,Qc5 c,Q4s,Qc3c,Qc2c,JcTc,Jc9c,Jc8c,J7s,J4s,T7s,T4s,97s ,94s,87s,84s,72s+,64s+,54s,42s+,A7o,A4o,K7o,K4o,Q7 o,Q4o,J7o,J4o,T7o,T4o,97o,94o,87o,84o,72o+,64o+,54 o,42o+}

Against these two ranges and six randos, we're at 6%. All we have are the BDFD and overs.

If we knew we could call for just one bet, we call easy.

If MP3 raises, there are 12 BB in there now, plus at least two more (BB and MP3), so we'd be getting >= 14:1. 6% equity is 15.6:1. So even for two bets it seems worth a call.

And playing the turn should be pretty easy. If we hit one of the 15 cards that improves our hand, we should have enough to see the river. (10 clubs, 3 A, and 2 non-club Q) If we miss, our equity drops below 2% and we can fold.

I hate this spot but see nothing we can do but call and pray that we don't get sandwiched in a raising war....actually we won't really have that happen because if it is raised and re-raised we have an easy fold, or at worst it's only 2 bet back to us.

Call.

Calls

Call re-evaluate on turn

I think you would be surprised by how often this donk bet is like a naked 4 or a hand like 55, 66, or 65.

Just call and see what happens. If it comes back to you for like 3 bets, I might consider folding.

Getting 25:1 immediate, I think you'd have to pry the Ace of Trumps from my cold, dead hands. Even if you assume it gets raised behind you, I think you're looking at like 28:2 (14:1) to 32:2 (16:1) and can call two on the installment plan. I'd have to be pretty convinced I'm going to have to put in 3+ bets before I'd fold. Given the read, I doubt BB is donking to 3-bet this.

Anyone tempted to cap preflop seeing as this is lol9way?

I can't find a cap here. I have to act before the field on every street and the 3-bettor is too far away to use his betting to my advantage if I flop good.

Is there any merit to raising here? Maybe for cleaning up outs or redraws? Or does this just expose us to building a big pot with a weak draw?

Using the ranges I used above and 6 randos our equity was 6.13%. If the raise gets the following number of randos folding, our equity goes like so:

0 - 6.13% ... 25.5 SB + everyone in for 1 SB (9 SB) = 34.5 SB * .0613 = 2.11 SB
1 - 6.97% ... 25.5 SB + 8 in for raise (16 SB) = 41.5 SB * .0697 = 2.89 SB
2 - 7.85% ... 25.5 SB + 7 in for raise (14 SB) = 39.5 SB * .0785 = 3.10 SB
3 - 8.84% ... 25.5 SB + 6 in for raise (12 SB) = 37.5 SB * .0884 = 3.315 SB
4 - 10.07%
5 - 11.56%
6 - 13.44%

So for the raise to be profitable we need 3 out of 6 randos to fold?

This prob isn't the way to go about this here. Hopefully someone with a better idea chimes in.

Groovenstein, the issue with your equity calculation is that you're keeping the ranges as random. Some things you know that you didn't include:

Depending on reads, some of the four players that called 3 cold preflop have ranges stronger than random.

All players that only called preflop should have premium holdings discounted or removed.

When they call two cold on the flop, their ranges are no longer random.

I don't know that it's possible to use stove to figure this out because you're basically going to want to define preflop ranges for all the players and determine actions for different parts of those ranges depending on your action, and you're just getting into a whole mess of variables.

Yes, there's some merit to raising -- we're probably doing OK against the BB's range, and the pot is ginormous. But the cons outweigh the pros IMO. Given the pot size, I don't think you're going to thin the field enough, especially considering the strong 3-bettor range in there. I'm assuming as I stated above that CO, BN and SB may have moderately strong ranges also, although you didn't provide reads on them, and that you'll have a tough time prying small/medium pairs out of their hands.

Folding for one isn't a great option because even with a raise behind you, the odds as calli pointed out aren't catastrophic. In a "normally" large pot I'd consider folding, but certainly not in this one.

So I call too.

Yeah, it does seem way over-the-top complicated to try to stove it all. I guess I'm just looking for something objective instead of my gut reaction that raising isn't worth it.

Is it raising for value? We'd need to have > 11.1% equity for that right? So prob not. But I don't have the exact data to back it.

What better hands might fold? AK? 22? Prob not many.

What worse hands might call? AJ? Prob not many.

I think there's a decent chance even if we spike an A or Q it will not be good, and that we prob need our BDFD or running FH to win. But I don't have the exact data to back it.

Assuming we need runner-runner, do we want to keep as many players in as possible who might pay off if we hit our hand?

Idk.

*G*

lulz: NINE-way 3bet pot!

I don't have a problem with flatting the 3bet pf; while many of the opponents must have pathetic ranges here, I feel AQo loses value the more multiway it gets.

Pot is massive enough to call with bd draw only, imo. I guess call and see what happens; if there's a raise and 3bet behind, I'd go ahead and fold. c/f turn UI.

every hand does. it's a question of where the bad hands' equities are going, and aq is still getting more than its "fair" share.

Hero looks left and sees what MP3 thinks of the donk. I'd tend to fold this without a clue that MP3 is just calling. Closing the action this is a snap call.

Okay, after a little stoving there are two points that really solidify this for calling, and some interesting trends with raising.

1. Your hand has less equity currently than the any one of the field of cold callers. This is insanely discouraging.

2. The BB having a wider range here actually helps him to have better equity than most of the cold callers. Go figure. When you add in the fact that hes betting.. I think it becomes clear you're probably already crushed. He's the most likely to have a 7 and now he's betting into a huge field.

If the preflop raiser remains in the hand, you're dead to flush or queen. Getting him out makes the ace a live out.

I think if you raise here you might be able to make a good case for improving your equity so much in such a huge pot. So long as you accept the probability of being 3 bet by someone with a 7.

You can call if you want, but you're

Well, yeah, in a literal sense, ldo. What I meant was that some hands that "play well" multiway gain what we can call "relative value" the more people are involved (e.g. a medium sc may only have like 40% HU against a strong range, but may have 33% 3way if add in one weakish range, 26-27% 4way, 23% 5way, etc). % is dropping with each new opponent added, but "relative value" (relative to it's "fair share", as you indicated) is going up with each new villain added.

AQo is not one of these hands. It's equity relative to it's "fair share" is likely going down with each new villain added. Does it still have more than it's fair share here? Probably, but I'm guessing only slightly so (maybe 12% 9way; dunno, don't have stove available right now, but I'd be surprised if it's much more than that). Given our kinda crappy position in the field, I'm still fine with just flatting there (unless I get an unexpected result when I stove something later on tonight).

You can call if you want, but you're in trouble unless you catch runner-runner.

The pot is [getting] big enough to consider backdoor draws like flush or boat.

You need 1 to 10 to hit a gutshot. That's around 7%. Your bdf is about 5% IIRC. If you call here are you gonna commit if it gets capped around back to you at 3 to 30+??

Just wondering.

I believe the rule of thumb is to treat a BDFD as 1 out. While it's technically around 4% to hit (around the same as a 2-outer), you need to factor in that you'll typically have to pay another bet on the turn to see the river. There is a not-so-helpful post in Poker Theory about this. One post refers to a Sklansky text that says it's worth 1.5 outs, but doesn't provide a source.

A call here is not a commitment to see the turn. If it gets capped back to us, there's a very high probability that someone has a 7, which dirties our flush outs and kills our pair outs. Also, if there are a lot of callers when it gets back to us, there's a higher chance of a flush draw out there, which would a) remove some of our outs, and b) mean we'll be paying extra bets when the club we need hits the turn. But in that case, our pair outs would be cleaner.

If we raise, knock out players, and it's only one bet back to us, then we obviously have a call, but it would be worse than calling and only having one bet back.

Regarding the raise, it's important to consider the board. It means that people can't be drawing to 2-pair that kills our one pair (e.g. we still beat an A4 or Q4s when we pair up). We would want AK to fold to clean up two ace outs, or pocket pairs to fold so they don't kill us with a set. We can't make gutshots fold incorrectly, but they might, which gives us a better chance of one pair being good.

The advantage of raising isn't clear, and it's really hard to do the math in this spot. A lot of things would have to come together favorably, which is pretty unlikely.

It just seems to me that you guys are ignoring the most important part of the hand in all this odds stuff -- our position relative to the action.

SB - Checks to the PF 3 bettor (he could have the nothing, the goods, or anything else)
BB - Donks on a low paired board into 8 players
Hero - Has 7 remaining players to act, including a guy who 3 bet his UTG open

Most of the arguments here stand up fine closing the action. If we were behind the PF 3 bettor, that's a ton of information. If you think the likely action is that you're getting ~5 more calls and never getting raised, you have to call. However if you commonly get a bet/3bet because the MP3 just is raising anything he 3 bet with, your relative position is horrible. You are trapped between two active players with a 1.5 out hand. Basically, this is a thin call and you need to be suspicious about the circumstances.

Before you do any of the fancy play raising stuff, you need to put the MP3 on a PF 3! range and the BB on a range to donk. Start here, you know the MP3 knows you don't have a 7 when you raise. If you had 77 you'd call the donk, hoping to get trapped when MP3 raises his AA. You don't have any other hands with a 7. A good hand reader would know you almost never have a flush -- you'd have capped 9 ways with most of your UTG suited cards. You also don't have QQ+ for the same reason (honestly, you shouldn't have any PP, but he's not jamming 99). Since you probably cap AK, you basically have AQo or AJo or maybe KQo.

I agree that the spot is grotesque and marginal. Our relative position is a nightmare, 3 bettor has strong range, could be drawing almost dead. Despite everything sucking for us in this situation 29: freaking 1 immediate. Would you ignore everything being shatty for us if getting 36:1? 50:1?

I'm not sure how you are arriving at 1.5 outs? A lot of the time we have 3 pair outs (if mp has ak,kk), sometimes we have 6 pair outs.