Another mental block thread.

This is much later in the session. BB is new to the table, HJ has literally been playing every hand and chasing everything, tightest player at the table is to my left and overall the table is playing loose and somewhat aggressive.

4 limps including HJ, I have A9o on the BTN and I raise. SB folds and BB 3-bets. Only HJ calls and I just call the 3-bet.

3 players, 9sb, flop comes Axx. Sorry, I don't remember the other two cards - all I remember is there did not appear to be any draws on the board. BB looks at the flop, sighs, and checks. I instantly put him on QQ or KK. HJ checks and I bet. Both villains call.

3 players, 6BB, sorry, I don't remember the turn card, I just remember thinking it was essentially a blank. Both villains check, I bet, they both call.

3 players, 9BB, river is a Q. There is no flush on the board. I remember it's a Q because I remember thinking, "If he has QQ he just pulled ahead of me". Both villains check to me.

Is there any reason whatsoever to anything other than b/f the river? In the actual game I checked behind. BB showed 88, HJ mucked, I showed my A9o and won the pot. Again, I don't want to second-guess myself due to result-orientedness, but I feel like this is a recurring theme in my game and I'm missing a lot of value because I'm too timid.

Unlike the hand with the ATo that flopped second pair, there are very few better hands they could be calling me with. BB clearly doesn't have an ace. HJ could literally have absolutely anything. If either of them have two pair or better they'd have told me by now. This is a clear river bet/fold IMHO.

Thoughts on this (over)analysis?

Easiest bet fold ever. I usually fold this preflop though although I imagine this is totally fine.

If you fold A9o preflop against 4 limpers, what percent of hands are you playing from the button?

I’d certainly fold A7o and this isn’t that much better. I’d probably raise A9o and fold A8

There's your first mistake. You simply cannot narrow down your opponent's range so tightly after the flop check. Once you become fixated on that, you ruin your ability to see all the other possibilities.

Let's look at this mathematically. Suppose you're right that he has exactly KK and QQ here. After the river card, what is the probability that he has each hand? There are 6 combos of KK and 3 combos of QQ. So even *IF* you were right that he's got that exact hand range, it's still twice as likely that you're ahead than behind. Now start throwing in all the other hands and you'll see you're still way ahead.

It sure looks like it.

Wait... what?

Also, why are you going from raise to fold on a single pip in a range of hands that are close in value?

Because I wouldn’t limp an ace here

Why not?

Because there is a lot of value I having the initiative in position and if I limp I’m simply praying to hit an ace and hope that I’m not outkicked - small aces are a one car hand most of the time.

I think you're overvaluing "initiative" in a multiway pot and undervaluing the ability to play better in position than out of position.

After there are 4 limpers, I fully expect that the hand is going to showdown, and I expect to need at least one pair to win. So in some sense, I think you're getting the worst of both worlds by investing more without the pair and denying yourself the ability to flop a cheap pair.

Also, the highlighted words show that you went from "usually fold" to "probably raise" with no changes in the underlying assumptions. Hands from the button probably shouldn't be played that elastically.

Maybe initiative was the wrong word. Raising should be for value and I’d to have an ace that has a sidecars that makes top or middle pair enough, plus the value of taking a free card when we miss. I’d don’t think there is value in limping small aces, because if you miss, which is a lot, you often get bet into, plus there are times you get out kicked

What you're describing is usually considered "initiative" so I'm not sure that it's wrong.

Okay. But if A9o is a raise for value, why isn't A8o at least as valuable as a limp?

Again, how much does that one pip change things with regards to this specific piece of the argument?

It's not exactly "free" when you've paid preflop. You can take every hand where you've raised preflop, and then just call a single flop bet to see the turn and still be in for the same total investment. So it's hard to argue that the "free" card is a benefit here. (It's not even a "half-price" card like when you raise the flop to get a free card on the turn.)

You miss just as often when you raise preflop.

See the comment about total investment above.

I'm not sure how raising helps with this. In fact, it would seem to be more likely to hurt because you probably don't knock out better aces in the blinds, and nobody is folding for the second bet.

I don't think you're making a strong case for a raise/fold mentality with medium-kicker aces on the button.

Do you think you make money limping A6o here?

Make more money limping A6o compared to raising it after four other limpers? Yes.

I will have a pair of aces only about 17% of the time. The rest of the time, my hand consists of a lot of ace highs and bottom pairs. That's not really the sort of situation where I'm happy putting in two bets preflop compared to just one. I'd be quite pleased to have not put in that extra bet 83% of the time.

Edit: Perhaps it's more correct for me to say that I think I would "lose less." It's close, but I think I'd lose a little bit of money playing A6o with the given conditions. I don't think it's hugely unprofitable or anything like that.

I'd do something like raise ATo, limp A9o-A7o, and fold A6o and below.

Aaron, would you really limp A6o on the button in a multiway pot? Not judging, just surprised. A2o-A8o are really not in my range ANYWHERE - I don't even like to complete the small blind with these hands.

Is this one of those marginal situations I play too timidly in?

I had to edit my response a little because I read a "more" into the comment that wasn't there.

I probably wouldn't, but I also wouldn't hate doing it. I *want* to play hands on the button. I'm looking for reasons to play hands, not reasons to fold them, when I'm in the best possible position against a pack of loose-passive opponents.

And I'm not sure whether this is about playing timidly or aggressively. It's about playing intelligently. I don't feel compelled to raise a pair of aces if there's an early position bet. Calling is a perfectly fine option.

Online 6-max has trained a lot of people out of understanding what multiway loose-passive poker is like. You don't have to be fancy, you don't have to push others around, you don't really need to worry about balancing your value bets and bluffing, and you don't have to be a nit.

Folding too much in the small blind is a pretty substantial leak. I think folding Axo is definitely a leak if you're getting at least 9:1 (which is 3 limpers). If you're getting 11:1 or better, you've got odds that are pretty tough to turn down with almost any hand with something going for it. Just play reasonable postlfop and you'll be fine.

Ok, we are talking over each other then. I guess we are just debating exactly 3 hands.

Possibly. But this reminds me of the QTo one from a few months ago:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...-pair-1719298/

It's the same type of conversation, but with a different hand. Some people were advocating that QTo was a fold from the button after 4 limpers. I thought that was similarly nitty.

Just as a point of fact, Equilab's puts these hands at the following percentiles:

* ATo: 11th percentile
* QTo: 16th percentile
* A9o: 18th percentile
* A8o: 20th percentile
* A7o: 25th percentile

Granted, this is all hot/cold (so playability is not taken into account) and I don't even know how many players they're assuming for these results. But if you're playing against a crowd of passive 50 VPIPs, then you should expect to have some decent chances to win money.

I’d much rather have qt than a7, even knowing that villains tend to limp more hands that have qt dominated

i'd probably call preflop and fold maybe a8o and lower, but i imagine all three options (raise a9, call a9, fold a9) are similar in expectation

river is an easy bet, yes. you seem quite mubsy and are probably missing lots of value. lhe is a game for optimists! a useful thought process to orient toward is "can they have some worse hands? okay, i value bet!" instead of "they only have better hands! okay, i check!"

I agree with preferring QT to A7. But the effect of domination is not part of that.

Hands that dominate A7: AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8
Hands that dominate QT: AQ, KQ, QJ, AT, KT

There are more ways that A7 is dominated compared to QT. And when considering potential limps/raises in a loose passive game, I find these to be about the same (at least within the noise of assumptions for how loose and how passive the game is). I consider that aspect to be a push.

The reasons I prefer QT are that when it connects with the flop, it has a stronger average strength than A7 and that it connects with more flops than A7.

Raising pre flop with this hand is -EV. Calling is probably around 0EV.

The river is a pretty easy b/f.

When you post the results of a hand, it often makes responder’s posts biased.

No! You’re correct to fold A2o-A8o in this situation.

Hey, we AGREE on something!!!!

Yeah, you're right. I guess I didn't need to post the result. My bad. I thought that I needed to post result to illustrate that the thread is more about a mental block than good strategy, but in retrospect I didn't.